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LeBron or Carmelo? Start debating

Forget other rookies, here is breakdown of these future greats

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By SALARY GUY By Bob McCullough
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 6:15 a.m. ET Dec. 2, 2003

It’s a simple question: Who is worth more, LeBron James, or Carmelo Anthony? OK, it’s not that simple. But judging the early and future returns of two of the most-hyped rookies the NBA has seen in years will be something for analysts and pundits for years to come.

SO SALARY GUY volunteers to kick it off.

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What the Market Says: Both players stack up similarly on the salary front, having signed the standard NBA deal for the top two draft picks that pays $10-12 million for the first three years. But with these two guys, the salary is just the tip of the money iceberg.

The backbone of James’ financial future, of course, is his $90 million deal with Nike, which has been followed by several significant ancillary deals with major companies that have bumped his overall endorsement value to almost $120 million. Anthony is running a distant second. While $30 million worth of endorsements won’t leave him hurting for cash, it does illustrate the vastly diminished value of starring for a national championship team versus being designated The Chosen One by the ESPN/Nike hype machine.

What Salary Guy Says: James might bring in more green over the long haul, but based on the early returns, watching the NBA’s two premier rookies has been a comparison between a near-finished product (Anthony) and a work-in-progress (James).

Both players have posted some horrendous shooting lines, but Anthony is a better pure scorer who has been able to put points on the board when different parts of his game aren’t working. James, who relies more on passing to key his overall game, faces a steep learning curve to make himself into a complete offensive player. He has some work to do to catch up to Anthony on the defensive end as well.

Anthony’s initial edge is augmented by two factors — the talent around him, and the Nuggets’ approach to team building. General manager Kiki Vandeweghe has been diligent in gutting the deadwood from the Nuggets roster, thus setting the stage for this year’s Andre Miller signing. The only bad contract the Nuggets have left is that of Marcus Camby, who still has value as a big, athletic body to help in the paint during Nene’s ongoing development process. Anthony also has a huge advantage in the presence of two quality point guards with Miller and Earl Boykins distributing the ball.

James, meanwhile, must bear the burden of trying to run a team that learned its work habits under the tutelage of former coach John Lucas. Until Paul Silas and John Paxson can complete the process of reworking the Cavs, gutting

the roster and adding complimentary talent, James could struggle. The Cavs are a horrible defensive team that leaves the paint wide open on a regular basis, and James’ only quality option on offense is the fragile Zadrunas Ilgauskas, who remains a serious defensive liability.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle James faces is the presence of Ricky Davis, a player who has yet to see a shot he didn’t like. While Anthony benefits from a modicum of talent around him and a young, aggressive coach in Jeff Bzdelik, James’ will struggle to orchestrate a team that won’t have its act together until at least next year.

The Bottom Line: For the next three years, Anthony will be the better value.

He already has helped the Nuggets climb to the .500 mark, and if they were playing in the East instead of the stacked West, Denver might even have an outside shot at a playoff berth. Look for Anthony to star on a team that will win at least 25-30 games, while James will definitely earn his money for a club that will struggle to get twenty wins.

An ancillary factor: James will probably hit a much harder version of the NBA rookie wall than Anthony. After four years of facing high school players, it’s hard to imagine him not getting severely worn by the first 35-40 games of banging against grown NBA men. Anthony, meanwhile, faces much less of a fatigue challenge after honing his skills against real college athletes on a national stage.

InsertArt(2074320)After three years, though, all bets are off. The end result of Anthony’s development is far more predictable than that of James. Judging by the initial numbers, Anthony will probably score 20-25 points a game, grab half dozen rebounds and dish 3-4 assists a game.

But the good news about James is that even the hyperactive hype machine didn’t overestimate his formidable talent.

Look for him to make quantum leaps in his game at several junctures during the next 2-3 years, and if Paxson can acquire some solid complimentary players in return for Davis and some of the other flotsam and jetsam on the Cleveland roster, James could very well end up being the better value in the long run. He’ll have to make some adjustments along the way, but right now James looks very much like a player who could average a triple-double for an entire season once he grows into the NBA game.

There is one area in which James is a clear value winner — in terms of his value to the Cavs and to the NBA as a whole.

The league has a lot of money invested in James’ ongoing lure as part of ticket packages being offered by almost every team,

and the NBA was looking at a huge PR and financial disaster if James didn’t give fans their money’s worth. He’s done that and more to date, not to mention the significant feat of putting bodies back in Gund Arena to see the Cavs in a building where last year’s crowds often resembled the walk-up gate for a Cleveland State game.

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