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Tar Heels’ talent not enough to save its season

After UNC’s latest loss to Duke, making NCAA tournament a longshot

Image: Roy WilliamsAP
North Carolina coach Roy Williams reacts to a call. The defending champs are 13-10 this season, and it might not get better anytime soon, writes Ken Davis.

Ken Davis
Now that the Super Bowl is over, college basketball can grab the spotlight. So let’s get to your questions.

Q: Ken, all those McDonalds All-Americans!!! What is wrong with UNC? They were better a month ago. Thanks, Russ.
Russ Christman, Chapel Hill, N.C.

A: I know Russ isn’t the only resident of Chapel Hill asking that question. Duke beat North Carolina 64-54 on Wednesday night for the first game this season in the greatest rivalry in college sports — and you would hardly know it. The usual buildup is not there because North Carolina has fallen to pieces and out of the rankings. The defending national champions are 13-11 overall, 2-7 in the ACC and the Tar Heels really have their work cut out for them if they are going to return to the NCAA Tournament.

Just think of that. No wonder coach Roy Williams is losing so much sleep, especially after a 92-71 loss to Maryland. We are witnessing a collapse of historical note. Florida won national championships in 2006 and 2007 but hasn’t been back to the tournament since. Before that the last defending national champion that failed to make the field the following year was Kansas in 1989. Ironically, Williams was in his first year as coach of the Jayhawks that year. But that wasn’t his fault. Kansas was banned from postseason play that season because of rules violations committed under Larry Brown.

Williams has never missed the NCAA Tournament again — and he has always advanced at least to the second round. The Tar Heels are at No. 79 in the RPI. The problem is Carolina doesn’t seem to have the talent, the passion or the experience to run the table and put itself back in the NCAA mix.

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It’s not easy to replace Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington all at once. Injuries to Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and Marcus Ginyard have been part of the problem. But the reality is that Deon Thompson doesn’t have Hansbrough’s work ethic inside and Larry Drew, with his 3.2 turnovers per game, is not an adequate replacement for Lawson. I thought Davis might be a first-team All-American but he hasn’t been the finisher around the rim that the Heels need. Freshman guard Dexter Strickland was forced into action before he was ready.

Williams believes in the Dean Smith system. Smith always relied on senior leadership and the Tar Heels don’t have that. Carolina’s freshman class obviously was overrated. You can have all the McDonald’s All-Americans in the world and if they don’t listen or respond to coaching, they aren’t going to win.

That really seems be a cultural problem with college basketball today. Connecticut, another Final Four team in danger of missing the tournament, is experiencing similar frustrations. The Huskies are talented but before coach Jim Calhoun went on medical leave, it was obvious he wasn’t reaching his players the way he normally does. Fans don’t expect high-caliber programs such as Carolina and UConn to have those complications. But in some ways those programs are more susceptible than others.

Williams can blame himself, but North Carolina really got caught in the perfect storm.

Q: Do you believe Georgetown has a chance to win the national championship this year?
Keith Ferguson, Augusta, Ga.

A: When the Hoyas play the way they did against Duke and Villanova, the answer is a resounding yes. When they play the way they did against South Florida or after building that early lead at Syracuse, the answer is no way.

Greg Monroe probably won’t win Big East player of the year, but he has played well enough for consideration. Austin Freeman and Chris Wright are two of the best at their position. Jason Clark and Julian Vaughn have shown significant improvement. That’s a talented nucleus.

When someone asks that question about their team, Keith, I immediately translate it this way: Can that team string together six consecutive victories in March? That’s what it boils down to. It sounds so easy, but it really is hard — especially for a team that lacks consistency like Georgetown. The Hoyas have been very streaky in Big East play. In the tournament, you can’t lose one and use that as motivation for the next two or three games.

My other concern with Georgetown is depth. Four Hoyas are playing 33 minutes or more. Coach John Thompson III is essentially giving substantial minutes to seven players and getting no bench production. I can’t think of many NCAA champions that operated that way. You need a bench to avoid major foul trouble in the tournament.


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