Why the Saints — or Colts — will win Sunday
There's plenty to like with both teams, beyond outstanding passing attacks
/ APDrew Brees and Peyton Manning will both lead potent offenses during Super Bowl XLIV.
Why the Colts can win
1. No matchup for Clark
Tight ends give the Saints problems and there are few better than Dallas Clark. Visanthe Shiancoe found a lot of holes against the Saints because New Orleans’ outside linebackers struggle in coverage. The safeties — Darren Sharper and Roman Harper — are boom or bust as pass defenders. Sharper is a ballhawk, but heady quarterbacks know how to use his aggressiveness to their advantage. Look for Clark to have a big night.
2. Overaggressive safeties
The Saints’ defense is personified by Sharper and Harper. They force turnovers, line up anywhere on the field, and blitz. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams isn’t afraid to gamble, and that means he gets burned. This is especially true in the running game, where Harper has missed some tackles and Sharper gets caught cheating to pass plays.
3. Mathis and Freeney
So, Dwight Freeney has an ankle injury. Had you heard? He still may be a huge factor. Freeney’s known for being a quick healer and his ankle improved throughout the week. In Freeney and Robert Mathis, the Colts have the league’s best pass rushing duo. That matches up well against the Saints. If there was a slight weakness in the Saints offense, it’s their tackles. Mathis has an uncanny sense of big moments.
4. Peaking defense
The Colts’ defense was tied for second in points allowed after 14 games, before Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell started the Curtis Painter experiment. The team is great in the red zone, and forces turnovers. The Ravens and Jets were stuffed cold. The Jets scored most of their points on trick plays and field position. The Saints present a much tougher test, but the Colts’ defense enters the game playing their best.
The Colts mostly rode their defense, not Peyton Manning, to their first championship. Win or lose, we suspect they will make the difference again this time.
5. They finish
Put the Colts in any game situation, and they find a way to win. This isn’t always a dominant team. Rather, it’s one that excels in late and close situations.
- Win 1: The Jaguars are sacked to death by Robert Mathis as they try to drive for a game-winning field goal.
- Win 2: The Colts hold the ball fewer than 15 minutes, but they outscore the Dolphins 14-3 late in the game to pull off a four-point victory.
- Win 7: The Colts score the final 12 points to out-slug San Francisco 18-14. Peyton Manning has his worst game, but the defense shuts the 49ers out in the second half.
- Win 8: The Colts have a chance for a big lead, Manning is intercepted, and the Texans rally to take a fourth quarter lead. Joseph Addai gives the Colts another comeback victory with the game-winning score with seven minutes left.
- Win 9: The Colts outscore the Patriots 21-3 in the final 13 minutes for a huge comeback win, including their famous stop on fourth-and-two.
- Win 10: Baltimore is in field-goal range to take a late lead, but Gary Brackett picks off Joe Flacco. Colts win 17-15.
- Win 11: The Colts spot the Texans a 17-0 lead, before roaring back to win the AFC South 35-27.
- Win 14: A 65-yard score to Reggie Wayne with just over five minutes left puts the Colts ahead for good over Jacksonville 35-31.
- AFC Championship: The Jets take a 17-6 lead late in the first half, but a four-play, 80-yard drive before intermission gets the ball rolling again for the Colts. They score the final 24 points.
6. Two minute drives
You don’t win so many close games without great situational play. Manning is the undisputed master of the two-minute drill, the four-minute drive, and even the half-quarter, clock-killing touchdown march when it’s required. The Colts’ defense is also excellent at situational football. This is where the system and smarts of the Colts show up.
7. They have coaches on the field
There isn’t a player and coach with a stronger mind-meld than Manning and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. Manning is better than any quarterback at calling and changing plays. That stacks the deck in the Colts favor. On defense, Gary Brackett’s leadership is invaluable. He’s made a career out of being better than others from the neck up and he gets his teammates into position.
8. Receiver depth
We like the Saints’ starting cornerbacks. We’re not sure about the depth. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have emerged as difference makers and have proven they will beat one-on-one coverage. That’s what they’ll see often.
9. Speed kills
The Saints excel at stretching the field vertically and horizontally. The Colts are well equipped to chase the Saints side-to-side. There may not be a faster defense in the league at swarming to the ball.
10. They prevent big plays
Drew Brees doesn’t have a reputation for having a huge arm, but the Saints are all about the big play. A lot of times it seems like Sean Payton’s gameplan is just a series of small plays that kill time to set up the homerun. The Colts pride themselves in keeping plays in front of them and making opponents earn their touchdowns. The Saints can’t count on too many long bombs.
11. Short-yardage
Just about the only aspect of the Colts’ running game that’s effective is short-yardage situations. They catch teams by surprise, and Joseph Addai knows where to knife through his offensive line. The Saints aren’t stout in the middle, so look for this trend to continue.
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Surprisingly, the Colts are also solid stopping the run in short-yardage. Dan Muir and Antonio Johnson have given the team beef and have recorded some memorable stuffs at the goal line, including in both Baltimore wins.
12. All business
The Colts know what’s at stake, and they won’t get overwhelmed by the moment. They’ve clearly enjoyed their time in South Florida, but the team’s business-like approach is conducted with one goal in mind: a championship. We’d be shocked to see this team make mental mistakes or take silly emotional penalties. They won’t beat themselves.
13. The Sheriff
The rest of this list probably wasn’t necessary. Titans running back Chris Johnson put it well during Super Bowl week when he picked the Colts: “With Peyton Manning, you don’t need a defense or special teams.”
Manning is coming off one of the best performances of his career. He’s one of the all time greats, at the apex of his powers, facing a vulnerable secondary. What more do you need?
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