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Watch a team and ask a couple of basic questions. Is this team capable of stringing together six victories in the NCAA Tournament? Does this team have what it takes to win a national championship?
Right now, there are six teams that seem capable of doing what it takes. Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky have built extremely strong cases. For those three teams, the answers are yes and yes. Then you have Villanova, Texas and Michigan State. List them as strong possibilities. The temptation to say yes is there, but with the slightest reservations on both answers.
What about Duke? I watch the Blue Devils over and over. After the top six, I would turn to Duke next. The Blue Devils are good. Not great, but very good. Mike Krzyzewski is still coaching and that’s always a plus. Nobody is pulling an upset at Cameron Indoor Stadium this season. Jon Scheyer is having a great season, an efficient season, perhaps a first-team All-American season. And eventually, Duke should pull away and win the Atlantic Coast Conference. Oddly enough, the race for first place will be with Maryland or Virginia or maybe Georgia Tech — not North Carolina.
That’s a lot of positive energy for the Blue Devils, but I can’t see this team cutting down the nets in Indianapolis.
Saturday would have been a good time to start changing my mind, if the Blue Devils are interested. Saturday would have been a good time to catch the attention of the members of the tournament selection committee.
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Saturday, the Blue Devils were routed by Georgetown. The loss is not the end of the world. It’s their reaction to a loss that might matter the most.
This was a rebound game for Georgetown. The Hoyas went to the Carrier Dome on Monday night and opened up a 14-0 lead on Syracuse. Then they fell apart and lost 73-56. Do the math. That’s a lot of ugliness after a 14-0 lead. And it was all on national TV. That gave Georgetown something to prove against Duke.
In case you don’t remember, Georgetown and Duke played last season. Georgetown looked like hot stuff last season after upsetting No. 2 Connecticut 74-63 on Dec. 29. Expectations went up, but the Hoyas went down. They lost two, then won two, including a victory over Syracuse, before traveling to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Jan. 17, 2009.
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That was the monster the Blue Devils faced Saturday. Georgetown doesn’t want to repeat last season’s downward spiral. At the same time, Duke needs to prove it can play on the road. The Blue Devils are 1-4 on the road, getting that first win last Saturday in impressive style at Clemson 60-47. Before that, the Blue Devils had not handled the hostile crowds at Wisconsin (73-69), Georgia Tech (71-67) or North Carolina State (88-74).
Duke is 13-0 at home and has won 39 straight before the Cameron Crazies against unranked opponents. But there are no home games in the NCAA Tournament, and this is one of those rare seasons when Duke or North Carolina will not benefit from opening-round games at a North Carolina location. The Blue Devils might begin their NCAA play in Jacksonville, Fla.
In addition to the concern over road performances, Duke fans must be concerned about the wear and tear on Scheyer and forward Kyle Singler.
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