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NFL is heading toward a doomsday scenario

‘The players are more united than ever ... and we're preparing for a lockout’

Image: Goodell Getty Images
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is bracing for a possible lockout, which could derail the 2011 season.

Does that mean the NFL salary structure will resemble baseball's rich get richer-poor get poorer model — at least for one year?

No, says Marc Ganis, president of Chicago-based consulting company Sports Corp. Ltd.

"It won't happen, at least now, because of the competitive balance rules that are in effect during the uncapped year," Ganis says. "You will not see a baseball type of hoarding of the all-stars occur in the NFL, certainly not this coming season."

For one thing, the crop of players available won't be as substantial as in previous, capped seasons, with the likes of Shawne Merriman, Miles Austin, Elvis Dumervil, Owen Daniels, Brandon Marshall and DeMeco Ryans now becoming restricted free agents. And, as Mawae notes, if NFL owners are looking to save money on player costs, here's their opportunity.

Agent Tom Condon, who counts both Manning and Saints quarterback Drew Brees among his clients, agrees that that, overall, less money will be available.

"The market has been gutted from not only a large number of players being unrestricted, but some high quality players," Condon says. "There is the Final Eight Plan ... taking 25 percent of the teams and having them not participating totally in free agency.

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"Over the past three years, 90 percent or so of the NFL teams have not, on average, spent up to the salary cap. Now you have no floor, so you have teams that were required to spend to the floor who don't have to participate or can participate on a lower level. I think you may see teams on selected players spend a lot of money and have a lot less participation overall than usual."

Which also might lead to no bidding wars when free agency begins March 5, or to only a few teams participating for a minimum number of free agents.

That's good news for the low-income teams. With no minimum team salary, no longer are small-market franchises going to be forced to spend close to what every else does. Instead, they will spend what they can afford.

"That is the big issue here," Ganis says. "The NFL has had a mandate through its CBA where they force teams to pay beyond their means — some of these owners are not making money. This last CBA was so unbalanced that you have a meaningful number of teams that in any given year could be on the negative side on a cash basis."

Probably not so in 2010.

And in 2011? Well, ever since DeMaurice Smith was elected NFL Players Association executive director in March, the players have been warned to prepare for a moment when the league stopped playing.

"Until we sign a deal, we have a responsibility to the players of the NFL to provide them with the best counsel for how to prepare for the worst," says George Atallah, Smith's top assistant. "From our perspective, we want a deal before the uncapped year to avoid any unintended consequences to hurt the overall product."

But time rapidly is running out, and it's a brave new world the NFL appears to be entering. Condon warns that what comes beyond 2010 is even more critical for the sport than what occurs this year.

"An uncapped season is not as important as what happens after that," he says. "A lockout or decertification by the union? Nobody really knows."

Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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