Breaking down NFL’s divisional playoff games
Will the wild-card teams stay hot, or will the home teams advance?
Nick Wass / APBaltimore running back Ray Rice is stopped by Indianapolis safety Antoine Bethea during the teams' regular-season game.
COWBOYS AT VIKINGS
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX
When Cowboys have the ball
Tony Romo engineered an efficient passing attack in the wild-card round, completing 65.7 percent of his throws and avoiding turnovers. He has a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio since Week 11. In the air, the Cowboys’ balanced offense features Miles Austin, who has emerged as one of the game's most complete receivers as a first-year starter.
Dallas will focus on perimeter runs with Felix Jones (who has 357 total yards and two scores in his last 3 games) and an intermediate-to-deep passing game featuring Austin and tight end Jason Witten. The Vikings' run defense is stout up the middle, so expect Dallas playcaller Jason Garrett to get Jones heavily involved on off-tackle runs and screen passes. Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield has been burned regularly since aggravating a foot injury in Week 14. Garrett will look to exploit Winfield with bombs to Austin, while a Vikings defense that's especially vulnerable to tight ends attempts to slow down Witten over the middle.
When Vikings have the ball
Brett Favre's late-season production dipped annually from 2005-2008, but he reversed the trend in '09. From Week 8 on, the 40-year-old threw for 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He is surrounded by explosive weaponry in Sidney Rice, who finished the season second in the NFC in receiving yards, game-breaking rookie slot man Percy Harvin, red-zone stud tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, and deep threat Bernard Berrian.
Still, they will use the run to set up the pass. Adrian Peterson remains the focal point of Brad Childress' game plan and Favre is most dangerous when the play-action game is clicking. Cowboys safety Ken Hamlin is also prone to biting on play fakes. If Dallas' pass rush overwhelms struggling Vikings linemen Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson, Favre will have to dump off to Harvin and Shiancoe down the seams. The Vikings will lose if Favre tries to do too much. Likely to be under duress, he must be willing to take what the Cowboys give him.
Coach
Both coaches offer unimpressive playoff resumes. This is Vikings coach Brad Childress' second career postseason appearance in four years on the job; he lost his only other try. Dallas' Wade Phillips got his first playoff win last week. All told, Phillips is 1-4 during the playoffs in 10 seasons as a head coach.
X-factor
Harvin is the fastest player on Minnesota's roster, and the offensive rookie of the year can beat an opponent in a variety of ways. Among kick returners with at least 35 regular season attempts, only Cleveland's Josh Cribbs had a better per-return average. Offensively, Harvin will match up with Cowboys nickel corner Orlando Scandrick, who lost his starting job earlier in the year.
JETS AT CHARGERS
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS
When the Jets have the ball
The Chargers have an ordinary defense, but we’re not sure the Jets have the tools to attack them. San Diego has two quality cornerbacks and better-than-average numbers against starting receivers. It’s the guys off the bench that kill San Diego. Unfortunately for New York, they don’t have any guys off the bench.
Brian Schottenheimer is going to call a game his father would be proud of. Look for more Thomas Jones this week because the Chargers can be attacked right up the gut. San Diego’s rush defense is below average, so there will be chances to slow down the tempo of Sunday’s game.
When the Chargers have the ball
Darrelle Revis will matchup with Vincent Jackson, a rare wide receiver that should be able to handle Revis’ physical play. That doesn’t mean V-Jax will produce — no one else has against Revis — but this is a heavyweight matchup that should deliver. Unlike Ochocinco vs. Revis.
Norv Turner knows LaDainian Tomlinson has no chance against the Jets, and probably won’t use him much except for in short-yardage. Look for lots of screens and short passes to Darren Sproles to slow down the New York pass rush. The Jets will have extra defenders available in the secondary because they won’t have to worry about the running game. Look for them to use two on Antonio Gates; it still may not matter. Gates is a Hall of Fame player at the top of his game.
Rivers has led the NFL in yards-per-attempt in back-to-back years. The Jets lead the NFL — by far — in yards-per-attempt allowed. It’s a great matchup of strength vs. strength.
Coach
In theory, Norv Turner is about power running, and vertical passing. In reality, he doesn’t have a running game — and it doesn’t matter. Turner and Philip Rivers have developed the best quarterback-coach mind meld this side of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Turner knows how to create matchup advantages and call plays as well as anyone in football.
Rex Ryan’s bluster makes it easy to overlook what he really brings to the table: a unique defense. His 3-4 defense morphs from play-to-play and week to week in an effort to confuse opponents and take away strengths. No coach does a better job slowing down elite passing games, which will be crucial this week. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has done a great job playing around rookie Mark Sanchez’s weaknesses with rollouts and lots of running.
X-factor
This is a different Chargers team, right? They haven’t looked overconfident, they quietly go about their business, and they have one of the finest quarterbacks in football. Moreover, the Chargers have actually overachieved the last two years in the playoffs under Norv Turner.
With all that in my mind, we can’t help but wonder if the Bolts will get tight if the game is close late in the third quarter. This is a game everyone thinks the Chargers should win easily, but the Jets match up well. New York is playing with house money and plays a gambling style. The Chargers have a lot more to lose.
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