APCARDINALS AT SAINTS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. on FOX
When Cardinals have the ball
Fresh off torching the Packers for 379 yards and five touchdowns in a wild-card round thriller, Kurt Warner has a hot hand. He also discovered a new weapon in second-year wideout Early Doucet, who subbed in as a third receiver versus Green Bay and scored twice. Anquan Boldin's (ankle, knee) status remains uncertain, so Doucet and Steve Breaston may be asked to step up again.
The run game is likely to play a bigger role than against the Packers. The Saints' rush defense has struggled since defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis sprained his MCL in Week 7, allowing five different backs to top 100 rushing yards and a whopping 15 rushing scores in their last 10 games. While the Cards remain a pass-first team, Beanie Wells may be the sneaky focus of their game plan. Wells is running with authority and speed, and New Orleans will be without run-stuffing defensive end Charles Grant, who tore his triceps muscle in the team's regular-season finale.
When Saints have the ball
The NFC's No. 1 seed, New Orleans finished the regular season first in total offense thanks to the accuracy and aggressiveness of All-Pro quarterback Drew Brees, who set the all-time record for completion rate by connecting on 70.62 percent of his passes. His receiver corps is deep, dominant, and headlined by Pro Bowl snub Marques Colston.
They will test Cardinals nickel-back Michael Adams early and often, just as Green Bay did. While he redeemed himself last week by sacking Aaron Rodgers on a corner blitz to force the fumble Karlos Dansby returned for a game-winning touchdown, Adams struggled badly in coverage. The diminutive Adams is only 5-8, so look for coach Sean Payton to get him matched up often with Colston (6-4) and Robert Meachem (6-3). Adams won't have a prayer in jump-ball or sideline situations.
Coach
Saints coach Sean Payton has been a regular season offensive mastermind, but this is his first playoff appearance since 2006 -- his first year on the job. In the divisional round that season, Payton's team fell to the Bears, who would go on to lose to Indianapolis in the Super Bowl. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt has the edge in postseason experience, having guided Arizona to an NFC title last year. Whisenhunt is 4-1 all-time in the playoffs.
X-factor
Lance Moore led the Saints in receiving and touchdowns in 2008, but has battled ankle and hamstring injuries all year. A crafty slot receiver when healthy, Moore was held out of Weeks 16 and 17 in an apparent attempt by Payton to have him 100 percent for the playoffs. As Jermichael Finley and James Jones showed in the wild-card round, the Cardinals' defense is vulnerable down the seams -- where Moore does his damage.
RAVENS AT COLTS
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. on CBS
When Ravens have the ball
Joe Flacco is going to hand off. Then he’s going to hand off some more. When he’s tired of that, he’s going to take a time out. Then hand off. Baltimore is bigger than Indianapolis up front and passing the ball too much plays to Indianapolis’ strengths. The Colts don’t give up big plays through the air, and the Ravens don’t make them.
The Colts have the best pass rushing duo in football in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Even though we like Baltimore’s tackles, we don’t like Flacco’s health right now. The Ravens were lucky that he didn’t have to throw against New England because he doesn’t look good. The Ravens will aim for long drives to wear out the Colts’ defense. That approach hasn’t worked often this year against Indianapolis; they are a supremely conditioned team.
When Colts have the ball
This game will come down to execution, not strategy, because both teams know what the other wants to do. The Ravens stuff the run, and the Colts struggle to run against average teams. Baltimore’s secondary has lost its best two cornerbacks this year, and can be vulnerable through the air. That’s why the entire game will come down to Peyton Manning’s protection.
Terrell Suggs is playing his best ball of the year, and Manning’s left side can occasionally be weak. Manning can snuff out almost any blitz, but so can Tom Brady, and that didn’t save him. The Ravens are better equipped than most teams to handle Dallas Clark because of Ed Reed’s presence. Covering youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in single coverage will be just as tough.
Coach
Jim Caldwell has won every game as a head coach that he’s tried to win; he must be doing something right. Caldwell tweaked the Tony Dungy formula more than people realize, especially on defense. In Ron Meeks, Caldwell hired a defensive coordinator more likely to blitz and change up looks than previous Colts squads. The group has shown a special knack for game-winning plays in the fourth quarter. On offense, well, it’s still the Peyton Manning and Tom Moore show. No one is better in the two-minute drill.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh has won playoff games in both seasons in Baltimore by trusting his coordinators. Cam Cameron loves trick plays and manages to create big plays without any great receivers. Baltimore has gone from run-heavy to pass-wacky, and back. They will stay on the ground. The Ravens defense hasn’t been quite as creative under Greg Matttison as it was under Rex Ryan, but they are finding their stride late. There may not be a harder hitting team in the league.
X-factor
Colts have all the rest in the world; the Ravens are playing on a short week. In the end, that doesn't matter. What does matter is how these teams handle situational football late in the fourth quarter. The Colts won in Baltimore by playing smarter when it mattered most, like they have all season. The Ravens are the anti-Colts, making mental errors with the game on the line. They won’t have the luxury of a blowout this week.
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