Unlike at USC, Pete Carroll would not win 84 percent of his games with the Seattle Seahawks.
We feel rather confident in making this statement in the same way we feel rather confident saying Carroll is not the reigning Miss Teen USA.
The only people who succeed 84 percent of the time in the NFL are the referees and even they need instant replay to be that good.
So the more legitimate question today is could Carroll win in the NFL, win enough to be considered at least half the coach he was in college, enough to survive beyond his first Seahawks contract, enough to win it all.
The answer: Nah, probably not. History strongly suggests otherwise.
With his departure from USC remaining imminent, now is the best time to note that Carroll would be leaving the position for which he was born to take a job that seems to fit him like, well, like a beauty pageant crown.
In a previous lifetime, Carroll spent four years attempting to coax the Jets and then the Patriots to greatness. He netted two playoff victories.
Here, in chronological order, are the victory totals of his three teams in New England: 10, 9, 8 — the results serving as a countdown on a stint that eventually would blow up rather than lift off.
Since then, Carroll has become one of the most accomplished coaches in any sport — professional or college — in this country.
And the NFL really hasn't changed all that much.
He is a great recruiter, which means as much in the NFL as being a great square-dance caller.
His rah-rah lifts spirits among the Trojans but would send only eyeballs skyward among the Seahawks.
His demeanor is perfect for the growth process that is college but would go stale about the third time Carroll called a matchup with the 49ers "a pretty cool deal."
None of this is meant to say he shouldn't go to Seattle. “Always compete” Pete should be enthralled with the prospect, especially that part about having another opportunity to disprove the theory he's only an average NFL coach.
When the game's richest owner — now that's saying something — offers in excess of $30 million to a guy with a career NFL record of 33-31 that guy should nearly tear both rotator cuffs packing.
We're all for pursuing dreams and becoming the greatest, most complete you any you could become. Carroll certainly has earned the chance to return to the NFL and, if that's what he wants, he should jump, yesterday, if not sooner.
It's just that we don't see this ending well for him, and that's our point today.
This is Seattle, a franchise that in 33 years of existence has won seven playoff games, none of which has been the playoff game. Three of the Seahawks' past four coaches didn't make the postseason at all.
Chuck Knox couldn't bring a Super Bowl title to Seattle in nine years and Mike Holmgren couldn't do it in 10.
Tom Flores, a two-time Super Bowl-winning coach, guided the Seahawks for three seasons — and finished 20 games below .500.
At some point, someone has to win in Seattle, right? True, but they have been saying similar things in Detroit for generations, and the Lions remain a punchline still today.
Even though he possesses the energy of a coffee bean, Carroll will turn 59 early next season. Only three coaches have won Super Bowls at a more advanced age.
He would be attempting to overcome some mighty powerful trends here, but that's something Carroll would embrace and talk about as if hyping another bland Washington State team.
There also are the apparently still unsettled questions about how much control Carroll would have in Seattle. Initial reports had him in charge of everything but the flavor of the cheerleaders' lip gloss.
At that point, it was easy to understand why he'd be so taken with the job offer. When someone extends a key and the explanation that it fits every car on the lot, whose heart rate wouldn't climb?
Now, the once clear-cut job description has been clouded, particularly by the NFL's hiring guidelines relating to minorities. Carroll no doubt still loves the money, but he might be wondering about the power.
The odds remain seriously tilted toward Carroll departing USC, but those odds would start working against him the moment he does leave.
Still, we can't fault a man who craves one more shot at the top and has only a few years left to take it.
You go, Pete, and good luck with the Seahawks. It took only one year for you to turn around USC.
We'd suggest moving at a similar pace once again, you know, just to be safe.
CSN: The Super Bowl's golden anniversary will be held in the Golden State. The new stadium, which opens in 2014, in Santa Clara will host Super Bowl L two years later, the NFL announced Tuesday.
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