Getty Images for NASCARThe Drive for Five will stall out at four. Yep, the gut is talking to me again and it's not good news for Jimmie Johnson and his team.
Johnson, of course, has just won his fourth-straight Sprint Cup championship. He did it with ease if not with flair. The method was similar to years past. Race well in the early stages of the season, race well in the middle stages and club the bejeezus out of the other contenders during the Chase.
It's the old building-block strategy and it has served Johnson and Chad Knaus and the 48 Hendrick Motorsports team well over the years.
But Johnson also benefitted from a couple of other factors this year. Factors beyond even Knaus' powers of control. The 2009 season saw a major dip in the competitive level of the series.
Roush Fenway Racing, which has essentially been the equal of Hendrick Motorsports in recent years tanked like the housing bubble. Three victories among its five drivers is not something which many would have predicted last February. Certainly not in early March after Roush driver Matt Kenseth won the first two races of the season.
Richard Childress Racing plunged faster than my 401(k). Zero drivers in the Chase a year after it had three make the playoffs.
Joe Gibbs Racing kind of plateaued this year. Rookie Joey Logano drove like a rookie, Kyle Busch didn't make the Chase and Denny Hamlin simply became the victim of horrible luck on the race tracks.
Next season, one or all of those organizations will be grabbing the boot straps and giving a hearty yank.
Anybody seriously think that Carl Edwards will go winless again next year? Greg Biffle? Anybody think Kenseth will not be in the Chase in 2010?
Over at RCR, the improvement was already being put on display late in the season. Clint Bowyer was a member of the lead-pack club most of the year and was joined by Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton in the final couple of months. New cars, baby. Doing their job.
The belief here is that both Busch and Hamlin will win Sprint Cup championships someday. That day could be in November of 2010. They could follow up Hendrick's one-two-three finish of this year with a one-two finish for Gibbs next year.
The point is, the challenge is going to get harder for Johnson next season and the gut says it will get too hard. And what a gut it is.
Jim Pedley is managing editor of Racin' Today. Read more NASCAR news at racintoday.com.
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