College football

Ducks can smell roses, and Pac-10 supremacy

Oregon can win conference outright by beating Arizona, then Oregon State

Steve Dykes / Getty Images

Linebackers Eddie Pleasant (11) and Casey Matthews (55) and and defensive tackle Brandon Bair (88) gang up on Arizona State running back Dimitri Nance on Saturday.

OPINION

By Dave Curtis

updated 5:20 p.m. ET Nov. 18, 2009

After watching his team get walloped for the second time in three weeks, USC coach Pete Carroll confessed the obvious: The gap between his Trojans and the rest of the Pac-10 had shrunk to almost nothing.

Now the best of the league's nine dwarves will duel in the desert to determine who'll gain the inside track for a Rose Bowl berth. This week's main event, No. 11 Oregon's visit to Arizona, will establish who replaces USC in control of the conference.

The changing-of-the-guard out west might be temporary, but it ranks among the nation's top story lines this season. Within the league, though, the surprise isn't as strong.

"It's all in college football," Arizona coach Mike Stoops said on a teleconference this week. "I don't think there's a big discrepancy among the top 20, 30, 40 teams. There's some significance in some teams, but you look. Everyone has some flaws."

The Pac-10's portion of the parity will produce a new BCS bowl participant in January. And Oregon looks like the strongest candidate to play in Pasadena.

The Ducks are the lone team with one conference loss and will claim the Pac-10 title outright by winning at Arizona, then taking down Oregon State at home on Dec. 3. Arizona, though, would take control of the league with a victory. Head-to-head victories over Stanford, Oregon State and Oregon would give the Wildcats a shot to go to the Rose Bowl if they win out. Arizona finishes with road games against Arizona State and USC.

Since the start of league play, no Pac-10 team has looked as impressive as Oregon. Except for a meltdown at Stanford, the Ducks have dominated, scoring more points and allowing fewer than any Pac-10 team. Arizona, meanwhile, has a back-loaded schedule, making the Wildcats the team with the most to prove.

How well they prove their worth will be tied to whether quarterback Nick Foles can continue his incredible season. A transfer from Michigan State, he lost the starting job to veteran Matt Scott. That experiment lasted three games: Stoops gave Foles the job in late September, and he has completed 70 percent of his throws for 13 touchdowns against six interceptions.

"I've gotten pretty comfortable," Foles said recently. "But the guys around me have played great."

Across the field, Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli might be the league's top playmaker. Stoops this week called Masoli the prototypical quarterback for the Ducks' offense, which four times this season has rung up more than 500 yards of total offense.

In training camp last year, Masoli was fifth on the Ducks' depth chart and destined for a redshirt year. But his skills and coach Chip Kelly's scheme seemed such a sure match that the junior QB earned some preseason Heisman Trophy buzz this year. He'll fall well short of that talk, but he has managed the offense well enough to push Oregon toward its first Rose Bowl since 1995.

"Early this season, he tried to shoulder a lot of the load himself," Kelly said of Masoli during a teleconference. "Now he realizes we have some weapons around him."

That help has become more evident during the second half of the season, especially during the primetime rout of the Trojans. Ducks tailback LaMichael James is averaging 6.98 yards per carry. Oregon lacks a superstar receiver, but Ed Dickson and Jeff Maehl have emerged as reliable targets.

A big day from them—and Masoli—would put the Ducks on the brink of a conference title—and in position to replace USC atop the Pac-10.

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