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Martin faces daunting challenge in final race

Technically possible for Martin to win, but it's unlikely he'll catch Johnson

Image: Mark MartinGetty Images for NASCAR
It's technically possible for Mark Martin to overcome Jimmie Johnson to win the Cup, but making up 108 points is a daunting task.

Well, sure, I guess anything is possible but ...

If Jimmie Johnson finishes this weekend's race at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 25th place or better, he'll win his fourth straight championship.

In his career, Johnson has finished worse than 25th a total of 39 times. That's only 16 percent of his starts.

He averages 5.57 finishes lower than 25th per season. His worst season in this regard was his rookie year (2002), in which he finished 26th or worse seven times. His best was 2006, in which he had just three finishes below 25th. So far this season, he has six finishes below that mark.

Currently, Johnson's lead over second-place Mark Martin is 108 points. Martin has gained more than 108 points over Johnson in a single race nine times. In five of those instances, Johnson crashed. In two of them, the No. 48 had some sort of mechanical failure. One was a rain-shortened race. That means Martin has gained more than 108 points on Johnson in a single race only once without some sort of outside force exerted on the No. 48. That was in the second Rockingham race of Johnson's rookie season.

Johnson has raced at Homestead-Miami eight times. His first start was in 2001, before he had a full-time Cup ride. In that race he finished -- you guessed it -- 25th. Only once has he finished worse than that at Homestead: 2005. He entered that race second in the standings, 52 points behind Tony Stewart. Johnson crashed and fell to fifth in the final standings, 127 points out.

The other two times Johnson entered the final race at this track second in the standings, he recorded his best Miami finishes: third in 2003 -- when Matt Kenseth ran away with the pre-Chase championship -- and second in 2004, when he used the race to cut Kurt Busch's points lead from 18 to 8.

Martin's average finish at Homestead-Miami is 12th. If he finishes 12th this weekend, then all Johnson has to do is start the race in order to win the championship. If Martin manages to finish fifth, then Johnson needs to finish 38th -- matching his abysmal Texas result from a couple of weeks ago -- to win the Championship.

These statistical nuggets just reinforce what we've known for weeks: Johnson will be your 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion. Congratulations to him, Chad Knaus, Rick Hendrick and the entire No. 48 crew.

Buzz Cutler is a co-host of Rowdy.com. For the best NASCAR community on the internet go to Rowdy.com.

© 2012 Sporting News

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