Johnson still a lock to earn fourth-straight Cup
Unlikely that the No. 48 will suffer bad races in the season's final two races
 John Harrelson / Getty Images for NASCAR Jimmie Johnson's past performances at Phoenix and Homestead-Miami makes it hard to believe that the No. 48 will finish in the back of the pack at both tracks. |
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Is Jimmie Johnson's grasp on the Championship any more tenuous today than it was a week ago?
I was doing a radio spot this morning and somebody "texted" the host saying that if Jimmie finished 14th or worse at Phoenix and Mark Martin won and led the most laps, then Mark would have the lead going into Homestead-Miami. That's a lot of "ifs," but here's what it would look like:
Mark Martin, 195 points
Jimmie Johnson, 121
195 – 121 = 74
Jimmie's current points lead is 73.
While the prospect of a 14th place finish for Jimmie doesn't seem that far-fetched, you must remember that we're talking about Phoenix International Raceway. In 12 races there, Jimmie has only finished out of the top ten twice. In both instances, he brought the 48 home in 15th.
It is less far-fetched to think of Mark Martin finding Victory Lane at PIR. He's done so twice, including a win from the pole back in April of this year.
Oh yeah, there are just two drivers with Phoenix finishing averages better than 10th ... Jimmie Johnson (5.4!!) and Mark Martin (9.0). How likely, then, is the scenario outlined above?
Even looking toward Homestead-Miami, which is supposedly one of Jimmie's "weaker" tracks, fails to open the door for Mark. In eight races there, Jimmie only has three finishes outside of the top 10. One was his rookie season, one was the result of a crash in 2005 and one was last season when you might say he had little reason to push.
No, my friends, Jimmie still has a lead-pipe lock on his fourth straight Championship.
What Messrs. Hornish and Reutimann did by taking the 48 out at Texas was simply toy with our emotions. They gave us hope when there is none to be had.
Mathematical possibilities have little to do with actual probabilities. The perception that the Championship is once again in play is just not the reality. Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus will not have three mediocre races in a row.
Buzz Cutler is a co-host of Rowdy.com. For the best NASCAR community on the internet go to Rowdy.com.
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