OPINION

By Matt Hayes

updated 3:47 p.m. ET Nov. 9, 2009

Matt Hayes

Three dangerous words have now become as much of the lexicon of the BCS as the controversial ranking system itself.

Body of work.

Case in point, the Oregon Ducks. Only a week ago, Ducks faithful were screeching about body of work — how victories this fall over ranked teams Utah, California and USC washed away the reality that they didn't get a first down until midway through the third quarter of a blowout loss to Boise State in the season opener.

This wasn't just "we're better than Boise State and should be ranked higher;" this went as far as "no one is playing better." And whaddaya know, someone was. All of a week later.

As some sort of strange, karmic comeuppance, Oregon now stares at the BCS poll and sees itself trailing USC — a team it beat by 18,000 points a week ago — by four spots. There's your body of work, everyone.

Don't panic
No. 9 USC. On poll positioning alone, the Trojans could force their way into a BCS bowl by finishing in the top four (there's a lot of ball to be played, people). Lose again — at this point, who doesn't think Stanford and/or Arizona can beat USC? — and it's hello, Holiday Bowl.

No. 4 TCU. The Frogs are a full half-point ahead of non-BCS competitor Boise State, and will get an even bigger boost this week with a victory over No. 16 Utah. Win this week, and TCU — with games remaining at Wyoming and against New Mexico — is a lock for the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

Start to panic
No. 3 Texas. The computer poll love for the Longhorns gets worse every week. Texas doesn't have another game to boost the component, and the Big 12 championship game (possibly against Kansas State) could actually hurt the Longhorns. Texas must play nearly flawless over the last month of the season, or something really strange might happen depending on the bump TCU gets from beating Utah.

No. 10 Iowa. From BCS national championship game dreams to the holidays in Florida. If Iowa loses out — to Ohio State and Minnesota — it can forget about a BCS bowl. If Iowa loses to the Buckeyes this week and beats Minnesota, one of three BCS bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar) will do cartwheels to get the Hawkeyes and their 30,000 fans.

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Of course, if Iowa beats Ohio State, the Hawkeyes are in the Rose Bowl.

Underrated
No. 8 LSU. That's right, LSU. A list of the teams better than the Tigers: Florida, Alabama. Maybe Texas.

No. 12 Pitt. Cincinnati's unbeaten run has taken all the heat — and hype — from Dave Wannstedt's best season at Pitt, and the nation's best freshman (tailback Dion Lewis).

Overrated
No. 18 Penn State. Two games against two teams that matter, two ugly losses.

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