BCS shuffle exposes computer polls’ flaws
How is Oregon ranked ahead of Boise State in computer rankings, anyway?
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It's Week 3 in the BCS poll, which can only mean the standard deviations and quartiles and the infamous Sagarin ELO-Chess formula is now officially unbiased in the computer poll portion of our program.
My kingdom for a dork translator.
Fortunately, this is also the moment where the computer polls are exposed for what they are: just another poll with human flaws.
How else can you explain Florida, third in two computer polls last week and No. 2 overall with the slide rules, moving to No. 1 in the computer polls with a victory over four-loss Georgia? Or Iowa, the No. 1 last week in five of six computer polls, thumping five-loss Indiana and dropping to No. 2?
Or Oregon, embarrassed by Boise State in the season opener — I'm going to say this one more time: The Ducks didn't get a first down until midway through the third quarter — passing the Broncos in the computer polls?
"I don't understand any of that stuff," said Florida defensive end Jermaine Cunningham. "All I know is we have to keep winning."
Don't panic
No. 5 Cincinnati. The Bearcats are more than a full point behind Texas and Alabama for what would be the second spot in the BCS championship game. And it doesn't matter. Cincinnati still has games against BCS Top 25 Pittsburgh (No. 13) and USF (No. 25), and the Texas schedule is full of gimme putts.
No. 9 LSU. It starts this week for the Tigers, who will play in the national championship game if they win out — ahead of any non-BCS unbeaten and probably ahead of Cincinnati. Winning out means wins over No. 3 Alabama and (if no upsets occur) No. 1 Florida, which handed the Tigers their only loss, in the SEC championship game. No team will have better wins.
Start to panic
No. 7 Boise State. Fair or not, the Broncos are about to get Longhorned. Oregon is sitting at No. 8 with a game at No. 18 Arizona on the horizon, and three more against one of the two highest-ranked conferences in the nation. When Oklahoma passed Texas last year despite the Longhorns victory in the Red River Rivalry, it set precedent.
No. 22 Notre Dame. The hard part: The Irish need to win out and move to No. 14 or better in the BCS rankings — an eight-spot jump — to qualify for a BCS bowl. That means road wins at Pitt and physical Stanford. The easy part: the selection. Said one BCS bowl rep: "If they qualify, bowls will fight over them."
Underrated
No. 3 Alabama. The Tide had a bye week, and fell in both the computer and human polls. What are the odds Alabama moves back into No. 2 — and maybe No. 1 — with a convincing win over No. 9 LSU?
Overrated
No. 4 Iowa. In any other league against just about any other team, Iowa throws five interceptions and it's on the short end of an ugly rout. But this is the Big Ten, and that was the worst replay review in the history of replay reviews. Not that it changed the entire course of the game or anything.
Head scratchers
- Alabama. Someone's going to pay for the Tide's drop from No. 2. Hello, LSU.
- Iowa. Are we sure the replay official in Iowa City on Saturday isn't also a computer pollster?
- Boise State. Human polls love the Broncos (No. 4 and 5); computers don't (No. 8).
- Non-BCS teams. Four in the top 15; more than any BCS conference.
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