OPINION

By Matt Hayes

updated 11:15 p.m. ET Oct. 30, 2009

Matt Hayes

Sporting News college football columnist Matt Hayes looks at five major story lines heading into Week 9.

1. The season-breaker
We've heard the excuses and seen the results. And frankly, it doesn't look good for the defending national champions.

One is an anomaly; two is a trend.

What we have here in Gainesville, everyone, is a full-blown trend. The Florida offense, one of the most feared in the nation the last two seasons, is sputtering and hiccuping along like your crazy uncle's tired Torino.

"It's kind of new and it's frustrating," Florida quarterback Tim Tebow told reporters this week. "But we're getting the wins."

For how long? Everyone has theories about the offensive struggles, but two things stand out for me going into the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party this weekend in Jacksonville:

• Florida's most successful offensive play in an ugly victory last week at Mississippi State was an I-formation, isolation handoff that produced a red-zone touchdown. It was the complete opposite of the spread option and the first snap Tebow has taken under center in his four years in Gainesville.

• The Gators' struggles the last two weeks were against the No. 9 (Mississippi State) and No. 12 defenses (Arkansas) in the SEC. Up next: No. 10 defense Georgia.

What makes anyone think Georgia can beat Florida? Here's what: The Bulldogs' problem on defense is defending the pass. When Jonathan Crompton throws for 310 yards and four touchdowns on you, you've got issues.

The Plan to Win — using the Urban Meyer axiom — is simple for Georgia: Load up to stop the run and force Florida's receivers to beat you in man coverage. More often than not, that isn't going to happen.

Riley Cooper doesn't have the deep speed to stretch defenses, and Deonte Thompson hasn't earned the trust of the Florida play-callers (a convoluted system with too many people to list).

The Dawgs must be patient, protect the ball and wait for Florida to make mistakes within the 15-yard box the offense is forced to work within because of a lack of proven deep speed. Arkansas played that plan perfectly (zero turnovers) and lost on a last-second field goal. Mississippi State didn't (three turnovers) but still was within striking distance late in the game.

Georgia, with two weeks of preparation and healing time, won't make the same mistakes.

2. A passing statement
There's this perception that all is well again in Austin. Colt McCoy had a breakout game against Missouri, and the path to the national championship game is free of obstacles.

"We've got the Colt of old back now," Texas coach Mack Brown said at a press conference this week.

Only there's one little problem: The A.G. Bulldogs, my nephew's middle-school team in Charlotte, would go up and down the field on the Missouri defense.

Now let's all take a long, deep breath and reassess.

Reality: the Texas offense still isn't close to the efficient, dynamic unit of last fall. But don't blame McCoy. Much like Florida, Texas doesn't have the deep speed to stretch defenses.

Special feature Texas gunslinger Check out quarterback Colt McCoy in action. NBCSports.com

So Brown has moved speedy underclassmen wideouts Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin in the starting lineup and moved senior Jordan Shipley into the slot to find better matchups for this week's key game at Oklahoma State. You're not making significant lineup changes midway through the season if there aren't issues.

Texas has found a legitimate tailback in Fozzy Whitaker, provided he can stay healthy. The issue isn't the running game: McCoy led the team in rushing last year, and the Longhorns lost one game by six points.

If the Texas receivers can't create separation and finish plays, then the Longhorns will be in another fourth-quarter game with Oklahoma State (see: 2008).

3. All about the defense
Few guys have been through the public opinion meatgrinder like Nick Aliotti.

The highs for Oregon's longtime defensive coordinator were the Gang Green days in 1994, and the lows, according to Oregon fans, have been too many, too often. So now that Oregon is again in the top 10 and again primed to win the Pac-10 behind its dynamic offense, where is the defense?

Right next to the offense, running stride for stride. This completely revamped unit has been overwhelming offenses for much of the season — even though it lost its best player (CB Walter Thurmond III) in September.

You say LeGarrette Blount fiasco; I say the Ducks kept Boise State's explosive offense 21 points under its season average. You say the Ducks play in an offense-first league; I say Oregon is 19th in the nation in total defense and 19th in scoring defense — and a respectable 40th in third-down conversion defense.

Those numbers look more impressive considering the USC defense, the unit many hail as the Pac-10's best, has been somewhat exposed the last two weeks. The Trojans roll into Eugene this weekend having given up 63 combined points to Notre Dame and Oregon State the last two weeks.

Here's a better comparison: Oregon and USC both played Cal, one game after the other. Both gave up three points; USC gave up 285 total yards, and Oregon allowed 207.

It won't be about offense this weekend. It's about defense and a wild, juiced Autzen Stadium crowd.

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