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Lackey has last chance to show he's The One

Future free agent must stifle Yankees tonight, keep Angels alive in ALCS

Image: Lackey
Julie Jacobson / AP
The suspicion is that the Angels' rotation is a very competent procession of Twos, but John Lackey has looked like a One when the Angels have needed him to.
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OPINION
By Mark Whicker
The Orange County Register
updated 1:21 p.m. ET Oct. 22, 2009

Forget the money. John Lackey already is a lot richer than most people you know.

Before next spring, he'll be a lot richer than even more people you know.

That is not the issue tonight.

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The issue tonight is the definition of an Ace, or a One, or whatever you call a dominant starting pitcher in the playoffs.

This is the year CC Sabathia, of the Yankees, has become that guy. And this was the spring in which Lackey, frustrated that the Angels seemed oblivious to his upcoming free agent eligibility, declared himself comparable to Sabathia.

"Except for his time in the National League, look at the numbers," Lackey said of Sabathia, who had just signed a contract that will pay him at least $60 million over three years ($23 million in 2010, $23 million more in 2011) and, if he doesn't opt out, a total of $161 million over seven years. Usually you have to ruin a major bank to get paid like that.

Lackey was right, at the time. But numbers change.

Sabathia, who had a 7.92 postseason ERA when in Cleveland, is the Josh Beckett of this October/November. Yankee opponents have to somehow plan on winning around him. He's 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA, with 20 strikeouts and 22 2/3 innings, one home run and three walks.

If Lackey wants to be Sabathia, he has a pretty clear, and ample, silhouette to fill.

If he wants to say goodbye to Angel Stadium as a One, tonight's the night.

"That's not really up to me," Lackey said Wednesday, when asked about leaving. "I'm not looking any further ahead than tomorrow."

Besides, that presupposes that the Angels won't go ahead and win Games 6 and 7 in Yankee Stadium, with Sabathia looming at the end of that line, or that the Angels won't sign Lackey.

He is the alpha personage on this pitching staff, a generous teammate behind the scenes, an expressive face (good and bad) when working.

The suspicion is that the Angels' rotation is a very competent procession of Twos, but Lackey has looked like a One when the Angels have needed him to. When he blanked Boston for 7 1/3 innings in Game 1 of the Division Series and let nobody get to third base, he triggered a cathartic sweep of the Red Sox that will be remembered far beyond whatever happens in this series.

How many teams even play a Game 7 of a World Series, let alone win one? Lackey won the only one he pitched, in 2002, and he was a rookie then.

He was just as resolute against the Yankees here on July 12, going seven innings and giving up two runs and fanning Mark Teixeira with a curveball in a tight spot. The Angels won that, 5-4. (Whatever happened to that Angels-have-the-Yankees-number angle, anyway?)

And he's a certified winner, 31 games over .500.

Lackey also has maneuvered himself into unquestioned primacy on the 2010 pitching free agent list. Only Jarrod Washburn and Randy Wolf are in the same ballpark.

The only thing that will keep him from becoming one of baseball's richest players is the market itself, but Lackey made every start from 2003-2007 and managed 176 1/3 innings this year, although he didn't start until May 18. Clubs tend to find money for such players.

Considering how few competent innings one has to throw to become the Dodgers' top starter these days, Lackey would look very much like a One to them.

The Rangers also seem logical, since Texas is home, but owner Tom Hicks has needed MLB bailouts lately and is negotiating to sell the club to Houston businessman Jim Crane, who made his money in cargo shipping.

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How legitimate were Lackey's parallels with Sabathia? Well, Sabathia is 46 games over .500 in American League games. He has won 17 games once and 19 two other times, including this year, and Lackey has won more than 14 only once. But Sabathia's American League ERA is just .04 lower than Lackey's, and Lackey has four 200-inning seasons to Sabathia's three.

Then you add Sabathia's Cy Young Award in 2007 and the fact that he's the first pitcher since 2001-03 to win at least 17 games in three consecutive seasons, and that Sabathia pitched for four sub-.500 teams in Cleveland and another team that broke even……

No, it's not about the money tonight. It's not even about a free agent's resume. It's almost an Olympic Games moment. Discard the past performances. Perform on the day they tell you to.

Can John Lackey pitch a game to match his aspirations, when a whole season comes down to One?


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