Bert Blyleven

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a great season, and if they can get past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, will have a chance to defend their championship.

And with a dominant offense led by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, plus a strong pitching staff with the likes of Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, you’d think the Phillies would be favored to repeat.

But truth be told, the Phillies should be appreciated for even getting this far, because in the modern era of baseball, teams rarely even get a chance to repeat, let alone pull it off.

Can the Phillies do it? Let’s take a look at their chances, all while appreciating what a feat it was for them to even get to this point:

THE IMPACT OF FREE AGENCY
To repeat in baseball is difficult.

The history of the powerhouse New York Yankees makes it seem like repeating happens all the time in baseball. Those teams of the 1930s and 40s made it look easy, winning four straight (1936-39), then another five in a row (1949-53).

Then more recently, the Yankees pulled off a three-year championship run in 1998-2000, led by stars like Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera.

But the fact is that since the advent of free agency in the mid-1970s, repeat championships rarely happen anymore. That Yankees team was the last to pull it off, nine seasons ago. The only other team to repeat since free agency was the Toronto Blue Jays of 1992-93.

And the last National League team to do it was Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine in 1975-76, when free agency was in its infancy.

You definitely saw more powerhouse teams before free agency than you do now, and what the Philadelphia Phillies are trying to do really doesn’t happen anymore.

You look back at Yankees dynasties and you kind of knew who was on the team every year. Babe Ruth was a big trade, going from the Red Sox to the Yankees in 1920, but for the most part you didn’t see those kinds of big moves.

But with free agency comes constant, year-to-year roster shuffling, as players look to get a big contract, even if it means switching teams.

The teams that have pulled off recent repeats have managed to keep most of their rosters intact, as well as adding key replacements for players who leave.

The Blue Jays, for instance, won the championship in 1992 with the likes of Joe Carter, Dave Winfield, John Olerud and Jimmy Key. In 1993, Paul Molitor was signed to replace Winfield, and Molitor turned in a huge season, hitting .332 with 22 home runs and 111 RBIs. Also that season, Key left for free agent riches with the Yankees, but Pat Hentgen blossomed in his place, going 19-9 with a 3.87 ERA in his first full season.

Slideshow   Baseball playoffs: Day 15 Check out all the best action from the MLB playoffs. more photos

That kind of fortune with free agent signings and young talent coming up is necessary to have a shot at repeating.

CHEMISTRY, HEALTH CAN BE FRAGILE
Oftentimes a championship comes about as a result of many things going right. Players stay healthy all season long. Typically average players have career seasons in support roles. Everyone is on the same page in the clubhouse.

These things are a big part of the formula for a championship, and they just show you how fragile a formula it is.

I played on two championship teams, the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1987 Minnesota Twins. Neither team was able to repeat, and both teams had a lot of things go right when they won their titles.

In 1979, the Pirates had a strong lineup with stars like Willie Stargell and Dave Parker. But a big reason we won the title were our role players. Tim Foli, a 28-year-old shortstop at the time, hit .291 that season and drove in 65 runs, pretty good for a career .251 hitter. The next season, Foli hit .265 and drove in only 38. Another teammate, Phil Garner, hit .293 with 59 RBIs. The next season, he hit .259.

I’m not ragging on these guys, just pointing out how players having career-type seasons can be a huge lift in a championship run. Injuries can also come into play. A lot of times when you win a World Series everyone is injury free.

We had to deal with some injuries in 1980, which didn’t help. Usually you can count on big seasons from your stars year in and year out. But “Pops” Stargell got hurt in 1980, playing in only 67 games, which was a huge blow to us.