Top three putting on a remarkable Chase show
It's rare to have three contenders in such a tight race for the win each week
 Mark J. Terrill / AP The 2009 Chase has been marked by the consistently strong competition among Mark Martin (left), Juan Pablo Montoya (center) and Jimmie Johnson for the top spot in the standings. |
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The most remarkable thing about the Chase thus far isn't Jimmie Johnson's two wins, Mark Martin's age-defying performance, or Juan Pablo Montoya's ability to rewrite his personal statistics; it is the combined dominance of all three. I don't ever remember a stretch of races like the first four Chase events of 2009, at which three guys so consistently vied for the win.
Finishing averages over the four race span, Loudon – Fontana, 2009:
Jimmie Johnson: 3.75
Mark Martin: 3.5
Juan Pablo Montoya: 3.5
Combined finishing average of all three: 3.58
If you look at the same statistics for the top three drivers after Chase Race No. 4 from past years, no other combination even comes close:
2008
Jimmie Johnson: 4.25
Carl Edwards: 9.25
Greg Biffle: 7.25
Combined: 6.91
2007:
Jeff Gordon: 4.75
Jimmie Johnson: 6.25
Clint Bowyer: 6.5
Combined: 5.83
2006:
Jeff Burton: 10.0
Matt Kenseth: 11.75
Mark Martin: 9.0
Combined: 10.25
2005
Tony Stewart: 6.5
Ryan Newman: 8.25
Greg Biffle: 11.5
Combined: 8.75
Now, Talladega was part of the four-race combo in each previous year, and one would think that race wreaked havoc with driver averages. In 2005, however, Smoke finished second and still ended up with a 6.5 four-race average. Newman finished fourth in that same race, but his average was 8.25. In 2007, none other than Jimmie Johnson finished second at 'Dega, but he still managed just a 6.25 four-race average.
The run of the Nos. 5, 42 and 48 is even more remarkable when you look at the varied track types on which they've had to perform. Loudon is a relatively flat mile-long track. Dover is a highly banked, concrete mile-long track. Kansas is a tri-oval downforce track a mile-and-a-half in length. Fontana is also a downforce track, but a little more of a d-shaped oval and two miles in length.
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Jimmie Johnson, ninth– Kansas
Mark Martin, seventh – Kansas
Juan Pablo Montoya, fourth – Dover & Kansas
If these three drivers continue to perform like they have thus far, it's going to come down to luck and/or wins. Which one of them can avoid getting caught up in someone else's mess at Talladega or Martinsville? Can Jimmie keep racking up wins even if Mark and JP record top fives? My hope is that heading into Homestead-Miami, all three are within 20 points of one another. The way they're going, it could actually happen.
Buzz Cutler is a co-host of Rowdy.com. For the best NASCAR community on the internet go to Rowdy.com.
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