OPINION

By Bass Masters

Rowdy.com

updated 11:35 a.m. ET Sept. 30, 2009

Jimmie Johnson and his 48 team aren't necessarily going to win a fourth straight title. But it wouldn't be too smart to bet against them, would it? Dover was just another helping of what we've been eating for the last three years in the Chase.

We thought with a new tire that wore more and rubbered up the track further, we'd see some comers and goers as the day progressed at the Monster Mile. But as usual, Jimmie and crew chief Chad Knaus were on top of the racetrack and their car, dominating from start to finish.

When asked where the 48 was beating him, runner-up Mark Martin said pretty much everywhere. Johnson just seemed to have more grip all the way through the corners. With that kind of advantage, he wasn't going to lose. We know Dover and New Hampshire aren't the downforce style of track we'll see in five of the final eight races, so things could certainly change. But I guess a lot of fans color themselves bored because a Johnson march to the title seems inevitable once again.

And here's the thing: The 48 team seems to have no weaknesses. First, they win in the Chase. With his 15th victory in 52 Chase races, Johnson is winning more than one quarter of the time in NASCAR's playoffs. And second, they don't sacrifice consistency to do it: With two top fives this year, Johnson now has 28 in the Chase — more than a 50-percent clip. In fact, he has 25 top-three finishes. Just think about it for a second: Johnson finishes in the top three in the Chase 48 percent of the time. And it looks like he's doing it again.

But despite his strong start to the Chase, Johnson is not in the points lead. That honor belongs to Martin, who leads the series in wins and started his Chase with a win and a runner-up finish.

Martin is about as savvy a driver as you'll find, plus he's got great equipment — theoretically the same stuff Johnson is running — and he and his crew chief, Alan Gustafson, clearly know how to win together. Martin could absolutely win at Kansas next week; he should be a threat at all the downforce tracks remaining, and he already won at Phoenix, a similar track to New Hampshire, earlier this year.

Unfortunately he's also got to run Martinsville and Talladega. Johnson is almost a lock to win the former, but if this is truly Martin's year, he'll have a great day at Talladega while his teammate finishes back in the pack. That's one scenario that could see them neck and neck at Homestead, but of course bad luck can crop up anywhere.

Only 10 points separate Martin and Johnson, but you do not want to discount what Juan Pablo Montoya and Kurt Busch have been able to do. From what we're hearing, Montoya had an "ah ha!" moment earlier this season at Pocono, where he figured out how a stock car needs to enter the corner. Used to all the grip and stopping power of an F1 machine, Montoya had been over-driving the thing.

Although he hasn't won in 2009, it's hard to imagine a better start to the Chase for the 42 than the third and fourth Montoya has managed. But you do have to ask yourself if that team is ready to run like this for all 10 races. It's still hard to see your way clear to that.

Busch has been running just about like Montoya, starting off his Chase with a fifth and a sixth. And yet he's 75 points behind Martin and 65 behind Johnson. As impressed as we've been with Kurt, it's also hard to see him nail down eight more races like that. And even if he did, it might not be enough.

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The real question in my mind is how Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Jeff Gordon will run at Kansas. They're all more than 100 points out, and if they're going to get back into this thing, it'll have to be on the downforce tracks like Kansas.

Maybe they can take some hope from the fact that Johnson faltered in last year's Chase at Texas and finished 15th (he also was slow for much of the day at Atlanta but came home second).

As for the Roush-Fenway cars, if they're not going to run top 10 at Dover, it's hard to think they've got much of a shot. Kasey Kahne's blown engine at New Hampshire ended his hopes. Brian Vickers and Ryan Newman have probably let too big of a gap open up between themselves and the leaders to get back in the mix for a championship.

With 80 percent of the Chase to go, we know it's not a two-man show just yet. But it sure does feel that way.

Bass Masters is a co-host of Rowdy.com. For the best NASCAR community on the internet go to Rowdy.com.

SportingNews.com Knaus not close to contract extension Griese apologizes for Montoya remark How do you solve a problem like Talladega? Vickers: 'It's been a great year for us' NASCAR Number: 7

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