Indianapolis at Baltimore
Indianapolis has been teetering on the edge of a loss for weeks, scraping by at home against San Francisco, Houston, and New England. They are like the Patriots teams early in the decade, keeping it close and then managing the game perfectly in the fourth quarter. 

The Ravens have the opposite trait, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when end of game situations hit. The key for Baltimore will be to win by two scores. That will be difficult considering their leaky secondary and sputtering passing game.

There are so many reasons to like Baltimore, though. The Ravens can control the game on the ground, something quality Colts opponents haven’t done this year. Baltimore has good tackles that can stop Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. They need the game more than the Colts. Indy is overdue for a loss.

And yet we still can’t bet against Peyton Manning in another game that should be decided in the final two minutes.

Pick: Colts 31, Ravens 28

Cleveland at Detroit
This is a low moment for Eric Mangini. His team is three and a half point underdogs to a squad that has won once since 2007. But it will get lower Sunday.

The Browns’ offense is a special sort of awful. It has scored six points or less in 11 of its last 14 games. Brady Quinn refuses to throw the ball deep until the very end of the game. And then he can’t keep the ball on the field.

Detroit’s defense is nearly as bad as Quinn’s offense, so something has to give. We don’t know what to like in that battle, but we do like a handful of Detroit’s young players: Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, Brandon Pettigrew, and Louis Delmas.

The kids will rise Sunday and get Jim Schwartz his second win.

Pick: Lions 20, Browns 13

New York Jets at New England
With apologies to my employers, Colts-Patriots is not the NFL rivalry of the decade. Jets-Patriots may be. Bill Belichick kick started the fun by resigning as “HC of the NYJ” on a piece of loose-leaf paper on January 3, 2000 and the acrimony has built ever since.

This is the perfect game for the Patriots after the devastating loss to the Colts. There can’t be a letdown — N.E. safety Brandon Meriweather says the Pats have been waiting for the Jets since Week 2.

The Jets have one component necessary to beat the Patriots: a strong pass defense. But they don’t have much else consistently, and they haven’t beaten a non-Raider team since Week 3. The Jets’ defense isn’t the same without Kris Jenkins and they can’t win a shootout.

Bring some Kleenex, Rex.

Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 13

Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Jaguars entered last week as a 4-4 team that played like a 2-6 squad. Then they put together their best game, a razor-thin win in the Meadowlands over the Jets. Despite their shoddy performance before then, they have legitimate playoff hopes because of the schedule.

The Bills had a chance to win in the fourth quarter in Tennessee, but fell apart badly enough for coach Dick Jauron and quarterback Trent Edwards to lose their jobs. It was an overreaction. Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear downgrade and Jauron had his team playing hard.

Interim coach Perry Fewell may fire up the troops, but he can’t fix the team’s porous rush defense. Look for Maurice Jones-Drew to do his Chris Johnson impersonation.

Pick: Jaguars 21, Bills 14

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Losing Larry Johnson was a plus for the Chiefs. Losing receiver Dwayne Bowe could be a disaster for a passing attack already struggling to find its way.

Now Matt Cassel will have to create yards with Chris Chambers (just acquired) as his number one target, with Lance Long and Bobby Wade thrown in. Oh, and don’t expect the offensive line to provide any protection.

Lost in Pittsburgh’s defeat to the Bengals was more proof that the Steelers’ defense of old is back and here to stay. It doesn’t matter what the Steelers do on offense in this game — and they should do plenty — because Kansas City just won’t be able to find ways to score.

Pick: Steelers 24, Chiefs 7

Washington at Dallas
As these two long-time rivals prepare for their 99th meeting, the Cowboys hold a whopping 20-game edge.

Still, few editions of this specific series ever entail easy wins, regardless of whether one franchise is among the good teams and the other is among the not-so-good.

Indeed, the one-win Cowboys from 1989 got that one win against the Redskins, who otherwise won 10 of 15.

And in the first year of Jerry Jones’ football palace in suburban Dallas, Daniel Snyder’s team would like nothing better than to vandalize the place.

They just might do it. Might.

Pick: Cowboys 20, Redskins 17

San Francisco at Green Bay
Lost in last week’s five-interception meltdown from Bears quarterback Jay Cutler was the fact that the 49ers clung to a four-point lead late in the game, and that but for Cutler’s final interception San Fran might have lost.

This week, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers won’t be as charitable.

Green Bay got things back on track last weekend, with a near shutout of the Cowboys. Though the quality of Dallas still isn’t completely clear, it's a cut above the 49ers.

So look for the Packers to continue to push their way back into position, and to deliver a serious blow to the Niners’ chances of catching the Cardinals.

Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 13

Seattle at Minnesota
The Vikings toyed with the Lions for too long on Sunday, failing to put the 1-8 road team away until the fourth quarter. Against the Seahawks, such an approach could spell doom.

Wounded but still proud, the team from Seattle learned this week that its owner is suffering from lymphoma. The news could get them to put together their best effort of the year, in honor of Paul Allen.

Whether their best effort of the year is enough to beat the 8-1 Vikings remains to be seen.

The chances of it happening will increase dramatically if the Vikings make as many mistakes as they did in Week 10, via 13 penalties, two turnovers, and several questionable decisions.

Pick: Vikings 31, Seahawks 17

Atlanta at New York Giants
Both of these teams made it to the playoffs a year ago. But both now have disappointing 5-4 records, and the loser of this one will face an uphill climb to get back to the postseason.

The winner won’t be a lock to get there, either.

The Giants are rested following a bye, and their hopes were buoyed last week with the Cowboys and Eagles losing. Throw in home-field advantage, and Atlanta looks to be destined to finish the day with as many losses as wins.

Pick: Giants 24, Falcons 14

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The Saints had a close call last week against a subpar Rams team. And as the march to 16-0 continues, New Orleans will continue to face the absolute best that every team on their schedule has to offer.

This week, it’s the 1-8 Bucs, who have shown some improvement after looking conspicuously like the 1976-77 version of the Yuckaneers.

Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman is improving, and he’ll face an injury-depleted secondary when the Saints come to town.

Still, the Saints are far superior, and Tampa’s finest (especially since the AFL folded) should be proud if they can stay within two touchdowns.

Unfortunately, they can’t.

Pick: Saints 38, Buccaneers 13

Arizona at St. Louis
2-3 at home and 4-0 on the road, the Cardinals should be happy to be going to St. Louis, where the home team is a sluggish 1-8.

But division games are rarely gimmes, and the Rams likely are feeling confident after keeping it close against the Saints.

So an upset is coming, right?

These are still the Rams, and the Cardinals know that the stakes are getting higher each week. With stiff challenges looming against the rejuvenated Titans and the Vikings and 49ers, Arizona can’t afford to stumble against a team that they need to beat, and beat soundly.

Pick: Cardinals 41, Rams 20.

Cincinnati at Oakland
The Bengals have conquered every test this season. Now they must prove they can avoid playing down to their competition.

The Browns took Cincinnati to overtime early in this year in Cleveland, so there is some precedent for a road letdown. The difference now is that the Bengals’ defense has improved throughout and now ranks among the league’s best, especially against the pass.

The Raiders finally benched JaMarcus Russell for Bruce Gradkowski, but that won’t improve matters. Gradkowski’s one of the league's worst backups playing with one of the worst group of receivers. And against one of the best pair of cornerbacks.

Pick: Bengals 17, Raiders 7

San Diego at Denver
It’s all about Chris Simms. If Denver’s backup gets the start, the Broncos are not going to be able to score enough to stick with San Diego’s passing attack. If Kyle Orton is healthy, the Broncos could absolutely end their slide and surprise people. Again.

Orton wasn’t the same last season in Chicago after returning from an ankle injury, but he still gives the Broncos a much better chance than Simms, who looked skittish in the pocket last week.

We are making this pick under protest early in the week because of lack of information. If Simms plays, give the Broncos a 25 percent to win. If Orton plays, make it 55 percent at home. The average doesn’t add up to a victory.

Pick: Chargers 23, Broncos 17

Philadelphia at Chicago
The Eagles are in the midst of another November swoon, and the Bears are quickly disintegrating.

Another loss by Philly would drop the Eagles to 5-5, and calls would return for the jobs of coach Andy Reid and quarterback Donovan McNabb.

Such calls already are coming in Chicago for coach Lovie Smith, and they’ll only intensify if the Bears lose at home to native son McNabb and fall to 4-6.

The key to this one could be the establishment of a running game. Neither team can do much in that regard, but at least the Bears try. Throw in a shorthanded Philly secondary, and the home team could be getting back to .500.

Pick: Bears 17, Eagles 10

Tennessee at Houston
At 3-6, and notwithstanding a three-game winning streak, the Titans likely won’t be heading to the playoffs.

But they could go a long way toward disrupting the efforts of the team in their former hometown to get to the postseason for the first time in eight-year franchise history by knocking off the Texans.

The conservative but dynamic Tennessee offense, with plenty of runs from Chris Johnson and low-risk passes from Houston native Vince Young, has helped the Titans recover some of the magic of a season ago.

So while taking their 2008 success to the next level could be unrealistic, giving a proverbial middle finger to the Texans’ hopes is within reach.

Pick: Titans 24, Texans 20

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