OPINION

By Rob Bolton

updated 4:31 p.m. ET Sept. 9, 2009

A renovated Cog Hill hosts this week. With $5 million of cosmetic surgery engineered by none other than Open Doctor, Rees Jones, this is an audition for the 2017 U.S. Open. Don't expect the rough to be too high or the greens too fast, just high enough and fast enough. Tournament organizers want to make a sterling impression on the field as opposed to what happened at Liberty National two weeks ago.

Length won't be an issue, as multiple tees will be employed. I don't, however, see a drivable par-4 out there (might we be surprised?). The finishing hole will be in contrast to what TPC Boston provided. The 18th at Cog Hill just might play as the most difficult every day.

As always at Dubsdread, the field will want to pounce on the par-5 15th instead after negotiating Pork Chop Hill, which is the prime (and my favorite) viewing area for fans in attendance. From that perch, you can watch the approaches on the par-5 11th, the entire par-3s at 12 and 14, as well as the tee ball down in the ravine on 13. One of the cooler views is behind the 14th tee if you don't mind the climb. Television never does justice to downhill par-3s like that those two at Cog Hill or No. 17 at Medinah.

Bunkers are deeper and greens are now multi-tiered, giving ball-strikers and those in command of their distance control the edge. Oh, and since Bellerive hosted the BMW last year, we will be ignoring results of that tournament.

Scorecard
BMW Championship
September 10-13
Tournament No. 40 of 46
Cog Hill G&CC (Dubsdread Course) [Lemont, IL]
Par: 35-36=71
Length: 7,616 yards
Year hosted: 1991-2007, 2009
Purse: $7,500,000 (Winner: $1,350,000)
Field size: 70
No cut

The Elements
SKY: slight chance of rain early, which could soften the turf (although a SubAir system is in place now); better chance rolls in on the weekend, but the limited field should finish on Sunday
WIND: moderate at most; not an issue, except that it will likely be blowing from the E and SE, which is opposite of the norm
TEMP: seasonably warm 80 degrees, give or take a couple

In Defense
Camilo Villegas (52nd in FedExCup points): If his wrist wasn't bothering him at the Deutsche Bank, then it must have been rust that resulted in the T-61. Villegas failed to rank inside the top-45 in any major category at TPC Boston and figures to join Vijay Singh on the sidelines, one year after the duo swept the playoffs.
Projection: 26+

Championship Flight
Steve Stricker (1st): Continues to avoid big numbers with a solid tee-to-green game and red-hot putter. His confidence must be off the charts, and that has nothing to do with his rise to #2 in the world ranking. That's merely a by-product of it. I'll never forget his victory here in 1996. He hasn't changed and it's no secret that few appreciate what the game gives as much as Stricker. Too bad he'll be 49 if Chicago gets the 2016 Summer Olympics. He'd be the ideal representative for the United States.
Projection: Top 5

Tiger Woods (2nd): Until his T-11 at the Deutsche Bank, Woods had never shot as low as a 63 in his final round of a tournament and finished outside the top-4 in the event. Naturally, that says more about his inconsistency than it does anything else, but I always go back to the mental aspect of the game before suggesting something technical is awry. Yes, Woods seems to be more at war with himself than usual, but he'll figure it out, right? At the top of the year, even before he returned to competition, if you asked me (and some of you did) at which events is my confidence the highest for him to win, Cog Hill is always near the top of the list as long as we know he'll make the trip. And that he has, with four victories and a pair of runners-up. He's the only guy that can catch Stricker in the standings this week.
Projection: Top 2

Padraig Harrington (7th): Posted a T-2 at Liberty National and a T-4 at TPC Boston. He's missing too many fairways to probably contend at Cog Hill, but you can't bench him now. He's one of the strongest in the world over the last month. And Tiger Woods hasn't earned this projection.
Projection: WIN

Scott Verplank (5th): It appears that Hunter Mahan has replaced Verplank as the annual captain's pick for the team competitions. Verplank tends to heat up exactly when he needs to enter the conversation. With a T-9 at The Barclays and a T-2 last week, he's blazing at the moment. For course history buffs, his landmark '85 victory at the old Western Open was at Butler National, not Cog Hill. Still …
Projection: Top 10

Jason Dufner (9th): Last six starts, ending with the Deutsche Bank: MC-T3-MC-MC-MC-T2. Led the field in birdies and putting at TPC Boston. So even-keeled that there's no question that he's in the right profession. I still think he needs to be sponsored by Sominex and the jury remains out on his consistency. In a field this deep, take a pass.
Projection: 26+

Slideshow   What were they thinking? Check out some of golf's wildest on-course outfits NBCSports.com

Birdie Chance
Jim Furyk (18th): His record at Cog Hill is insane, including a victory in 2005, and he's gone T15-T8 in the playoffs thus far. Rees Jones' modifications will underscore Furyk's resilience, but the golfer needs a few guys to fall by the wayside to emerge with the trophy.
Projection: Top 5

Dustin Johnson (10th): After a T-15 at The Barclays and T-4 last week, I suppose the wrist injury is a thing of the past. It disturbs me a little that he hit just 62.5 percent of his GIR at TPC Boston. Only a tremendous putting performance saved his week. Honestly, because of that, I'm rather tepid on his chances at Cog Hill, but I'm expecting his raw talent to shut me up.
Projection: Top 10

Jerry Kelly (24th): En route to the T-11 at the Deutsche Bank, he finished 1st in fairways hits and 1st in GIR. As reported recently, he wants a second '09 victory badly. Kelly won at the old Cog Hill in 2002, and will have the regional home crowd cheering at every turn.
Projection: Top 25

Brandt Snedeker (42nd): If there was a second-half Comeback Golfer Award, Sneds would be a finalist. In a nutshell, his short game and putting is perfect for this week's test. This is a conservative projection.
Projection: Top 25

Eagle Putt
Jason Day (37th): You are paying attention I hope. Day is one of seven golfers to notch top-20s in the first two playoff events, with a T-12 at The Barclays and T-19 outside Boston. At Liberty National, the Aussie was 1st in putting and birdies. Last week, he had just eight over-par holes. And his putting has been sensational. It would surprise no one if he wins this week.
Projection: Top 25

MORE FROM GOLF

Golf Section Front

Thanksgiving weekend, minus the Skins Game Ochoa edges Shin for LPGA's top player award Out of Bounds: Tiger booed ... at Stanford? Latest golf videos Latest player news, rumors and more Tracking Tiger: News, features and more Tiger's triumphs: Recapping all Woods' wins Vote: When will Tiger win his 15th major? Vote, discuss: Best major of 2009? Special section: Golf on NBC Golf Section Front   Add Golf headlines to your news reader: