OPINION

By Jim Pedley

updated 1:59 p.m. ET Sept. 3, 2009

I guess it's time. Time to weigh in on the Danica Patrick to NASCAR thing. Her named popped up a couple of times on the rumor sites again this week, and the hope that avoiding the issue in print would help it go away is just not panning out.

So, with avoidance a failure, a new tactic is called for. Taking it on, head on. Here goes and in easy-to-read format:

Is she serious about moving to NASCAR?

I think she is seriously considering it, seriously exploring it with her summer-long tour de shops. I assume the tour is not just for publicity as it is not getting that much.

I think she would like to make more money and she would certainly get that in the forms of a paycheck from the team which hires her and from endorsements and resulting commercial ventures.

But I also think the tour is designed to squeeze more out of the IndyCar team that ends up hiring her.

The answer here would be yes. I think she would like to hear all the right things on her tour, including an offer too good to refuse.

Would she be successful as a driver in NASCAR?

First, off, it is a given that she will go with a team that will put good equipment under her and surround her with good people in a sport where success built upon the shoulders of good people.

But after that, well, as always, it depends on how one defines successful. If success is judged to be making the top 35 in owner points and, hence, avoidance of go-or-go-home Fridays, then yes, she would likely be successful fairly quickly.

But, if your idea of success is contending for victories week in and week out, then no, I don't think she will be successful for quite some time.

There is a human litmus test or two we can turn to on this. Their names are Juan Pablo Montoya and Sam Hornish Jr.

Quite simply, Montoya was one of the great open-wheel drivers of his era. Not good, not really good, but great. It has taken him a couple of years to attain the type of success we are talking about. And he did it right – slowly and up through the ranks. Said all the right things, listened, avoided distractions. Tough guy, too: He returned any and all unwelcomeness in the garages with a smirk.

Hornish was the best open-wheel oval driver of his time. He was Rick Mears with sideburns. He had something going for him that Montoya did not – experience with concrete walls.

Patrick is a nice driver. There is nothing tokenistic going on with her. She can drive and compete in the IndyCar Series and deserves to have a ride. But, there is the one victory, some poles and some tantrums.

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The answer here would be no. Patrick and the Chase would be separated by years if not eternity.

What factors would further mitigate against success for Patrick?

Start with the schedule. There are 36 points races in Cup. There is the All-Star race. There are two or three weeks in Daytona at the start of the year. And, you think her time is not going to be more in demand as a NASCAR driver than it was in IndyCar? Double it, if that's possible. A Kenyan distance runner would have trouble with fatigue in such an environment.

Proceed to acceptance. Human beings being human beings, you can bet not all arms will be thrown open to Patrick. Not in the garages and perhaps not on her own team. Especially as frustration mounts and especially if she proves unable to control the temper which at times got the best of her in IndyCar.

Finish with second-guessers. You know, people like me who are going to say it was all a big mistake and that will start after the first time she plows into Dale Earnhardt Jr. They have hammered Hornish mercilessly the past couple years, they hammered Dario Franchitti and both of those guys won the Indy 500 and IndyCar championships.

So, Danica to NASCAR?

Nope. Not any time soon.

Jim Pedley is managing editor of Racin’ Today. Read more NASCAR news at racintoday.com.

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