The challenge in divining the plans of receiver Michael Crabtree arises from the reality that rational minds rarely can predict the behavior of the delusional.

Crabtree seems to be willing to at least ponder the possibility of treating his first experience in the NFL draft like a ball that ricocheted off the video board at Cowboys Stadium. This possible plan has multiple flaws.

First, the 49ers would hold his rights until the day of next year's draft. This means Crabtree — who thinks he's much faster than he really is — wouldn't be able to work out for any team or otherwise participate in the pre-draft activities that he missed this year due to a stress fracture in his foot.

Second, NFL scouts have a short memory. After a year on the sidelines due to a failed attempt to prematurely force his way into the draft earlier this decade, USC receiver Mike Williams slid to No. 10, and running back Maurice Clarett fell all the way to the bottom of round three.

For Crabtree, a one-year absence fueled by his refusal to accept a fair deal based on his 2009 draft position would cause many teams to shy away from him, fearful he won't sign with them, either.

In short, he'll now have the exclamation point of "head case" added to the question marks about his actual skills.

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Based on the realities of the salary cap and the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement, the likelihood of Crabtree heading back into the draft pool will increase dramatically if he doesn't sign before Week 10 of the regular season.

Here's why. After Week 10, he can't play at all this year. If he's not signed in 2009, neither the 49ers nor any team to which his rights might be traded before next year's draft would have extra rookie pool space in 2010 to sign Crabtree to a contract. (Even if there's no salary cap in 2010, there nevertheless will be a rookie pool.) This means a contract would be difficult to negotiate, with Crabtree required to defer much of his guaranteed money to the one-time incentive based on achieving a certain level of playing time.

This would, as a practical matter, push much of his money into 2011, or beyond.

By that point, Crabtree might be more inclined to continue to refuse to work out a deal, and to give it a try again in the draft. Indeed, he'll likely get his money (however much it might be) more quickly by signing a contract as a 2010 draft pick than as a 2009 draft choice signed in 2010 with no rookie pool space.

Thus, regardless of whether Crabtree intends to re-enter the draft, his hand might be forced if he doesn't do a deal by November 12 — more than five months before the date on which he'd re-enter the pool of players who'll be joining the league in 2010.

Crabtree needs to do a deal before November 12. And if he's going to do a deal before that date, he needs to simply do a deal now, in the hopes of making a contribution to the 49ers this year.

The problem, however, is that there's no apparent middle ground, no face-saving option that can be characterized as a win-win, even if, given the lateness of the hour, it's a lose-lose.

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The bottom line here is — both the player and the team have lost, so far. The only chance of turning it around will come if/when the player decides to trade delusion for reality and accept a contract based on the slot in which he was drafted.

Though Crabtree might eventually rise from this mess and become a Hall of Famer, most NFL careers don't last a decade, and his biological clock already is thumping. If he doesn't act accordingly in the near future, it might be too late to turn it around next year.

Especially if he hopes to finagle a top-10 contract from his slot in round two.

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