The big question in ’09? How to beat Florida
To stop No. 1 Gators, foes must avoid turnovers, control ball, have luck
Phil Sandlin / APTim Tebow, Urban Meyer and Florida can be beat, NBCSports.com contributor Joey Johnston writes.
Q: What’s your surprise team this season?
— Michael from Easton, Pa.
A: Not a total stunner, but a mild surprise. I like the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to win the ACC, make the first BCS bowl in program history and finish in the Top 10. Most prognosticators are going with Virginia Tech (at least before Darren Evans’ season-ending injury) or perhaps Florida State to win the league.
Coach Paul Johnson’s “flexbone’’ offense is a major problem for opponents. Junior running back Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yards, 12 touchdowns, nine 100-yard games last season) is the real deal. Don’t forget sophomore Roddy Jones (8.5-yard average, 214 yards against Georgia). And definitely remember Louisville transfer Anthony Allen, a junior big back who set the Cardinals’ single-game record for rushing.
Here’s an interesting statistic: 37 of Georgia Tech’s 40 touchdowns last season were scored by freshmen or sophomores. To me, that suggests the Yellow Jackets are just going to get better and better. Georgia Tech’s resurrection begins now.
Q: Do you think the prognosticators have LSU underrated with all the talent they have and the fact it appears they have cured their quarterback issues? Also, the Tigers have a new defensive coordinator that appears to be doing a good job so far.
— Kenneth from Jacksonville, Fla.
A: LSU is not a consensus Top 10 team, Kenneth, but I think that’s partially a product of its competition in the SEC West.
Alabama is loaded, even though it must replace the quarterback and few other pieces. The talent level with the Crimson Tide is quite impressive, and it looks like Alabama is here to stay for several more seasons.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss is everyone’s chip Top 10 pick this season. For good reason. Jevan Snead, the quarterback, is one of the nation’s best players, and the Rebels have several all-SEC level players up and down the lineup.
However, anyone overlooking LSU should do so at their own risk. The Tigers also have a boatload of talent and if sophomore Jordan Jefferson continues his progression at quarterback, they will be just fine. LSU’s offensive line is terrific and there’s the usual array of quality players at the skill positions, most notably running back Charles Scott and wide receiver Brandon LaFell.
Defense? That’s the key issue. Last season, for the first time in program history, two teams scored at least 50 points against LSU (while Ole Miss and Arkansas each put 31 points on the board). John Chavis, formerly of Tennessee, is the new defensive coordinator and he should get things straightened out. He’s very experienced in the SEC and I’m expecting LSU’s defense to be much better.
LSU has a difficult schedule — including road dates at Ole Miss and Alabama — so winning the SEC West might be a tall order. But LSU will have plenty to say about who wins the SEC this season. By season’s end, particularly if Jefferson plays to his potential, LSU could be at the top 10 level.
Q: What do you think of USC starting a true freshman at quarterback?
— Brett from Davis, Calif.
A: I don’t have a major problem with it. Matt Barkley was one of the premier prep players in the nation and played at an elite program (Mater Dei). He entered school early and had a full spring of work at USC, so he already was on the fast track.
But make no mistake. There was a huge mitigating circumstance. Aaron Corp, named starter in the spring, suffered a cracked fibula on the third day of training camp. That, more than anything, might have swung the decision because Corp’s mobility has been severely compromised.
USC coach Pete Carroll was quick to say Barkley’s ascension wasn’t “a one-game thing.’’ And all eyes won’t necessarily be on USC’s opener (Saturday, San Jose State), but on the huge Sept. 12 trip to Ohio State, a likely season-defining moment for both programs.
Carroll isn’t the type to bench a quarterback, so this decision could effectively be a three-year plan if Barkley plays well.
Barkley will be surrounded by a talented offensive cast, beginning with a stacked backfield (Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, C.J. Gable, et al), a nice receiver in Damian Williams and an offensive line that returns four starters. He’s as well-positioned as any true freshman — maybe ever — to have success.
So let’s see what the kid can do. I don’t think USC misses a beat.
Q: Given the youth of the Michigan team (quarterback in particular) and an untested offensive line, what are their chances of having a winning season?
— David Kitchen from McKinleyville, Calif.
A: I think Michigan makes a very large leap from last year’s 3-9 disaster — and that means a winning season, plus a return to a bowl game.
History tells you big things are usually in store for elite coaches in their second season with a new program. Bob Stoops (Oklahoma), Jim Tressel (Ohio State) and Urban Meyer (Florida) won national titles in the second season after laying the foundation with mediocre debuts.
Rodriguez himself began 3-8 at West Virginia in 2001, then improved to 9-4.
The regression at Michigan was somewhat predictable (although not at a 3-9 level). The Wolverines looked headed for a down cycle, plus Rodriguez had to endure the inevitable adjustments to a new system and new coaching staff.
Michigan is not ready to compete for a Big Ten championship, obviously. Ohio State and Penn State are top dogs in the league and Michigan, luckily, gets both of them at home. The Wolverines do have four difficult Big Ten road games — against Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin — and may not be favored to win any of them.
Then there’s the pivotal non-conference game against Notre Dame — big for both programs, actually.
I see 7-5, maybe 8-4 in a best-case scenario, for the Wolverines. That’s not up to Michigan’s traditional standards, but at least it’s a return to a bowl game. The Wolverines must be positioned for Big Ten contention in 2010. Rodriguez has made some recruiting inroads to suggest that’s a possibility.
Joey Johnston writes regularly for NBCSports.com and is a columnist for the Tampa (Fla.) Tribune.
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