Breakdown of the AP preseason Top 25
Who's overrated, underrated in first poll of the year?
OPINION
By Matt Hayes
updated 12:54 a.m. ET Aug. 23, 2009
 | Matt Hayes |
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Saturday's release of the season's first Associated Press Top 25 brings us one step closer to the 2009 season. What's college football expert Matt Hayes have to say regarding the pick? Glad you asked:
1. Florida. We're all in on Timmy Terrific, but the Gators' defense — with as many as 10 future pros — will dictate games this fall.
2. Texas. Can a team be so focused — so hell bent — to right a wrong from 2008, that 2009 becomes a lot tougher than it should somewhere along the way?
3. Oklahoma. Sooners reload on the offensive line and everything is peachy, right? QB Sam Bradford will get hit this fall like never before.
4. Southern California. True freshman QB Matt Barkley is stealing the show in fall camp. Why am I the only one who sees a red flag here?
5. Alabama. Tide's last memories from 2008: negative 1 yard of offense against Florida in the fourth quarter of the SEC Championship game, a blowout loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Now imagine fall camp in Tuscaloosa.
6. Ohio State. The ranking of reputation. Too many new faces for Buckeyes to be this high, but too good of a coach (Jim Tressel) to think they won't end up here.
7. Virginia Tech. Unfortunate injury (star TB Darren Evans' season-ending ACL tear) likely derails what could have been a sleeper run to the BCS national title game.
8. Mississippi. It's not the big home games (Alabama, LSU) that could trip up the suddenly hot Rebels. It's the problematic road games (South Carolina, Auburn) that championship teams should win, but often don't.
t-9. Oklahoma State. We keep hearing about Cowboys as this year's Texas Tech. I've got a better example: Missouri last year. Cowboys will have a hard time reaching preseason expectations.
t-9. Penn State. Forget about the awful non-conference schedule (maybe worst in the nation); rotating Big Ten schedule has Lions playing every league heavyweight.
11. LSU. Five losses in 2008 to SEC Champions in 2009? Why not — with the emergence of QB Jordan Jefferson and new defensive coordinator John Chavis.
12. California. The story of Cal under coach Jeff Tedford is the team plays better when the expectations are lower — and worse when they're higher. Difference this time around: a nasty, athletic, SEC-style defense.
13. Georgia. For those who think it's 2006 all over again, understand this: QB Joe Cox is your starter for the season because the freshmen backups UGA has on the depth chart aren't close to what Matthew Stafford was in 2006.
14. Boise State. As crazy as it sounds, it's a one-game season for the Broncos. Beat Oregon in Week 1, navigate the WAC and reintroduce yourself to the BCS. The Utah attorney general will be calling, too.
15. Georgia Tech. Here's the unseen, critical factor of the triple option: it's demoralizing. Defenses can't get off the field, offenses can't catch up. And the wins keep coming.
16. Oregon. Only Florida runs the spread option better, and only Florida has better personnel to run it. If only the Ducks were more experienced defensively.
17. TCU. While the Mountain West whined an entire offseason, TCU was quietly building its most dangerous team under coach Gary Patterson. A frightening statement considering the Frogs have won 11 games four times in eight seasons under Patterson.
18. Florida State. The 'Noles say they're ready to rejoin the nation's elite. QB Christian Ponder better be more accurate, and better go through passing game progressions instead of bailing at the first sign of trouble.
19. Utah. If a fall camp full of drama — disruptive DE Koa Misi (back) is out indefinitely, true freshman (Jordan Wynn) wins the quarterback job — doesn't get the Utes, road games at BYU and TCU will.
20. BYU. A lock for 10 wins every year, BYU will upset at least one BCS heavyweight (Florida State) — and maybe another (Oklahoma).
21. North Carolina. In three years at Chapel Hill, Butch Davis has turned over the roster and the Heels are as athletic as any team in the league. Can they take the next step and win big games?
22. Iowa. Hawkeyes have their best team since the 2002 Orange Bowl season, and if TB Jewel Hampton stays healthy, will be a factor in the Big Ten race.
23. Notre Dame. Irish won't be this low for long. This team has too many weapons and too much motivation to not cruise through a schedule that shouldn't provide resistance until USC arrives in South Bend Oct. 17.
24. Nebraska. A clear indication Huskers are on the right path with coach Bo Pelini: star DT Ndamukong Suh would've been a top 15 (at least) pick in last year's NFL draft. He stayed in Lincoln because of Pelini — and what Pelini could teach him about the game.
25. Kansas. Jayhawks have done just about everything right with underrated coach Mark Mangino — except beat the big boys of the Big 12. It's now or never with an explosive offense and potentially two games against either Texas or Oklahoma.
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