OPINION

By Matt Hayes

updated 1:41 a.m. ET Aug. 22, 2009

Admit it, you'd be absolutely giddy if both Oklahoma and Notre Dame stumbled before a season of big expectations got out of the blocks.

No two teams have taken more criticism this decade: OU because of its failures both in BCS national championship games (1-3) and BCS bowl games (losers of five in a row), and Notre Dame because, well, it's Notre Dame.

As intriguing as it sounds — BYU over OU and Nevada over Notre Dame — it's not going to happen. There are, however, five potential upsets waiting to play out in Week 1:

Oregon over Boise State
OK, I hear you.

This can't be an upset. Pac-10 over WAC. Oregon is ranked higher.

Here's why it'll be an upset: Boise State likely will be favored and rightfully so, considering the Broncos won in Eugene last year (they were up 37-13 in the fourth quarter before holding off a late Ducks charge, and winning 37-32).

But remember this: Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli missed most of the game with a concussion.

And anyone who saw Oregon at the end of last season — and specifically, the way Masoli had developed into a dangerous dual-threat quarterback — knows this Ducks team doesn't remotely resemble the group that was forced to use its fifth quarterback of the season (because of injuries) during the second half of the Boise State game in Week 3.

Oregon's spread option offense (much like defending national champion Florida's) is more run-based, and can grind away and dictate tempo. Masoli, tailback LaGarrette Blount and tailback LaMichael James — a redshirt freshman who has had a huge fall camp — will bring a more physical presence in the run game.

Western Michigan over Michigan
Michigan needs a running threat at quarterback to make coach Rich Rodriguez's offense work. The choices: Nick Sheridan (didn't work last year) or two freshmen (Tate Forcier, Denard Robinson).

I've seen enough true freshmen playing quarterback to know it doesn't work a majority of the time. It's too much to comprehend in such a short time, and more importantly, freshmen quarterbacks are one bad play from forgetting mental fundamentals and forcing athleticism. And that usually means turnovers.

Meanwhile, the quarterback on the other side is a potential first-round pick in next year's NFL draft. Tim Hiller is that good, and the Western Michigan offense is loaded. The Broncos' defense? Iffy — but it may not matter if freshmen quarterbacks commit a few turnovers and give WMU short fields.

Patience, Big Blue. It's going to take time, and when Rodriguez gets his players in place, championships will follow.

Central Michigan over Arizona
Remember a few years ago when we were all gaga over the MAC and its pro-ready quarterbacks? Well, here's No. 2 this fall: CMU's Dan LeFevour.

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But while Hiller is a classic pocket passer, LeFevour is a dual threat bound to cause numerous problems — along with dynamic wideout/return man Antonio Brown — for Arizona's inconsistent defense. It also doesn't help that Arizona has issues on offense: Who plays quarterback (Matt Scott?), how long will star tight end and No.1 target Rob Gronkowski be out (back injury) and can the defense prepare for what they'll see from LeFevour ('Cats gave up 55 points last year to Oregon, the only spread option team in the Pac-10)?

One more problem: Arizona is 3-5 vs. Division I-A non-BCS teams in the month of September under coach Mike Stoops.

Baylor over Wake Forest
I'm on Baylor this fall. Actually, I'm all about dazzling quarterback Robert Griffin. He has enough — and coach Art Briles has changed the losing culture of the program — to push the Bears to an Ole Miss-type jump this fall.

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That means winning on the road against one of the ACC's better teams, something Ole Miss didn't do last year. Baylor won't be shocked by Wake's spread option system and won't be overwhelmed by the Deacons' defense (it's completely rebuilt) like they were in last year's 41-13 loss.

More than anything, it won't be Griffin's first game, and he won't enter trailing 17-0, chasing points and momentum. Wake has a virtually new back seven on defense, something Griffin and the Bears' emerging receivers will exploit.

Richmond over Duke
Let me first say I'm a big believer in David Cutcliffe. He got four wins last year out of a Duke team that probably should've won one.

Morale is better, players practice harder and quarterback Thaddeus Lewis has developed into a legitimate threat. Yet this is the classic Duke misstep — against the defending I-AA national champions. The Richmond offense is a meticulous, fundamental unit that thrives under four-year starter Eric Ward at quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes and won't put the Spiders in bad situations.

Richmond is big on the interior lines and won't get pushed around, and it has the confidence from rolling into Durham three years ago and winning 13-0. That Duke team didn't win a game; this one wil l— but not in Week 1.

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