OPINION

By Bill Marx

updated 11:01 a.m. ET Aug. 19, 2009

Two significant events happened in Sunday's Carfax 400, and neither one was Jimmie Johnson running out of gas at Michigan for the second time this season. First, Brian Vickers won and picked up a ton of points, moving to 13th in the standings, 12 points behind No. 12 Mark Martin. And second, Martin's crew chief, Alan Gustafson, inexplicably allowed his driver to run out of gas on the last lap, which resulted in a disastrous 31st-place finish. Here's our weekly breakdown of the top 12.

1. Tony Stewart: 3,500 points
Here's my concern with Smoke: Stewart's No. 14 team is doing really well; teammate Ryan Newman's No. 39 isn't. If it's the drivers, that's one thing. But what if it's the equipment? What if the bad luck that has plagued the 39 at times this season spreads to the 14?

2. Jeff Gordon: 3,216
Just as teammate Johnson has mastered running out of gas just short of the finish at Michigan, Gordon has mastered running second. He finished second at both of those races this year and for the eighth time at the track. For the season, that's six second-place finishes. Gordon has shown frustration with most of them, but if he finishes second in six Chase races, he'll likely win his fifth Cup championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson: 3,197
Johnson took his 33rd-place finish in stride. At least outwardly. The truth is, if there had been one — just one — caution to break up that final green-flag run, Johnson would have won. Johnson's ability to stretch fuel mileage aside, the gamble was the right call to make.

4. Carl Edwards: 2,995
Cousin Carl, aka Winless Carl, finished fourth. No surprise there. It was his 10th top 10 in 11 races at Michigan and his seventh in the top five. Edwards also finished in the top five the previous week at Watkins Glen. If Edwards is beginning to find his groove, it's coming at exactly the right time, and his early season woes will become long forgotten.

5. Denny Hamlin: 2,986
Speaking of momentum ... Hamlin scored his third top 10 in a row and seventh in nine races since finishing third at Michigan in June. The difference between Hamlin and Edwards is that Hamlin has a win and isn't carrying around the burden of being winless.

6. Kurt Busch: 2,957
Busch got caught up in a wreck in Michigan and was saddled with his first DNF of the season. He was coming off consecutive top 10s, during which time he led significant laps. He has five wins at this week's stop, Bristol, and can quickly regain momentum.

7. Juan Pablo Montoya: 2,887. Contact with Kasey Kahne left Montoya seething and with a cut tire, forcing him to make a green-flag stop. But he recovered to finish 19th and maintain his spot in the standings. The downside is that he went from 154 points ahead of the 13th-place driver to 108. He still has a significant cushion, but that's also a significant chunk to lose.

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8. Kasey Kahne: 2,884
Kahne scrambled to an 11th-place finish and also maintained his position in the standings. He leads Vickers by 105 points with three races to go before the Chase field is set. Kahne also had his margin trimmed, but, like Montoya, he still has a good-sized lead.

9. Ryan Newman: 2,845
Then there's Newman, who, to borrow a hockey cliche, stole one Sunday. Newman finished 15th despite an average running position of 23.8. Newman spent 23 laps in the top 15; only Kahne, with 11 laps, was lower among drivers finishing in the top 15. Newman's lead over 13th place is 66 points; it was 165 points two races ago. The 39 team is flailing.

10. Greg Biffle: 2,821
Biffle is still 10th, but his lead over 13th is 42 points, down from 91, after his 20th-place finish. Last year, Biffle came alive in the Chase, winning the first two races. If he keeps this up, he won't make the Chase.

11. Matt Kenseth: 2,811
Kenseth finished 14th and moved up a spot. But his cushion is down to 32 points. He finished 33rd at Bristol in March. Another repeat performance might knock him out of the top 12. Biffle, by the way, finished 39th. The same goes for him.

12. Mark Martin: 2,791
If Martin misses the Chase, this race will be the reason (not the other six races he finished 31st or worse). Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. made a stop under caution on Lap 159 and gave up track position but roared home third. If Martin had done the same and finished, say, fourth, he would have taken home 165 points — 90 more — and be ninth in the standings with 2,881 points, a 102-point lead and momentum. Instead, his lead over Vickers is 12, and the buzzards are circling.

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