OPINION

By Rob Bolton

updated 11:50 a.m. ET July 15, 2009

There's been quite a bit of early chatter about the premium on hitting fairways this week. No kidding. Thing is, with midweek rain and more expected (see "The Elements" below), balls won't necessarily be running through every fairway. This plays to the notion that the leaderboard will be crashed by some long hitters with better games around the greens than those that find the short grass more often.

British Open overview
July 16-19
Tournament: No. 30 of 46
Turnberry (Ailsa Course) in Turnberry, Scotland
Par 35-35=70 – 7,204 yards
Years hosted: 1977, 1986, 1994, 2009
Purse: $8,600,000 (Winner receives $1,548,000) [both amounts pre-U.S. conversion rate]
Field size: 156
Cut: Top 70 & ties after 36 holes (no 54-hole cut if more than 78 golfers survive the 36-hole cut)

Elements
SKY: Showers are always in the forecast, and it's all but a guarantee for Friday; course should play relatively long all week with the moisture
WIND: The ultimate variable at this event; the only constant on which you can rely is change, not to mention direction
TEMP: Upper-50s to low-60s

In defense
Padraig Harrington: It's hard to believe that there is more doubt about his chances this year than last when a wrist injury occupied the headlines in 2008. I'd say we're all the wiser now since he's claiming that his wrist is bothering him again, but five straight missed cuts coming in don't support our skepticism. And he hasn't had a top-25 anywhere since the Palmer Invite.
Projection: 26+

Championship flight
Tiger Woods: When he's in the field, I should have a special section entitled "The Golfer Most Likely to Beat Tiger," because I'd like you to continue reading past "Tiger Woods, Projection: WIN," which is really the more realistic option. I've never been accused of being a smart marketer but now that you don't see "WIN" here, I do know that you want to know which guy I've selected that won't win anyway. Call it a cat-and-mouse game of "Where's Waldo?" that I'll probably never win.

Slideshow   Tiger at The Open Relive Tiger Woods' British Open performances during the past 14 years. more photos

Projection: Top 2

Steve Stricker: So, how many times on his red-eye Sunday night do you suppose that he considered that he'll be making the same trip again next year after defending at the 2010 John Deere? Stricker tends to perform better on faster greens, which won't be the case this week, but he did just fine on the rain-soaked surfaces at TPC Deere Run. When you're hot, you're hot.
Projection: Top 10

Ian Poulter: You have to love his intensity and anything-goes conceit. The last golfer to win the British one year after finishing as the runner-up was Jack Nicklaus at St. Andrews in 1978. Nicklaus was alone in second and one stroke adrift of Tom Watson at, of all places, Turnberry in '77. Something about a Duel in the Sun or some such ... Poulter should be praying to the golf gods. Or least Twittering them.
Projection: Top 10

Geoff Ogilvy: OK, so here's your winner. I didn't make you wait too long. What I love here is that he adjusted his preparation to the need. Last year, he finished tied for ninth at the U.S. Open and then didn't play again until Birkdale, where he missed the cut. Twelve months later, on the heels of a tie for 47th at Bethpage, Ogilvy played in the Scottish Open last week and finished in a comfy tie for 13th. He wanted to get acclimated to the time zone, weather, etc. Loch Lomond is a parkland track, but we already know who Ogilvy is and there wasn't a links option last week. For a guy that can dissect any golf course, has a short game rivaled by few and avoids the big number, he's my "upset" pick of the week.
Projection: WIN

Henrik Stenson: The Swede is coming off a rare two-week break. If that seems wrong, it isn't, but it does contradict his intentions to scale back a bit this year. He's actually going in the opposite direction, albeit slightly. The British was his 14th start in 2008. This year, it's his 15th. Meaningless? Perhaps, and he hasn't had two weeks off since he returned from his last fortnight away with a tie for third in Houston. Therefore, the rest could be just what he needs considering he's cashed just twice in five starts since winning THE PLAYERS. He certainly has the short game to conquer Turnberry, but the recent misfires have chilled my interest.
Projection: Top 25

Slideshow   The British Open A look at the record performances — both good and bad — at golf's oldest major. more photos

Lee Westwood: He's supposed to win one of these, right? Obviously, a lot of factors have to come together to win any event, something that Westwood hasn't experienced for nearly two years, but his game is in the right place lately, with a pair of top 10s the last two weeks. Don't let anyone try and tell you that he's a sleeper.
Projection: Top 10

Martin Kaymer : Even I can't overlook Kaymer's consecutive victories at the French and Scottish Opens. However, like 134 others in the field, this will be his first go at Turnberry. Kaymer said that he had never seen the course and that he's tired. In projecting Kaymer's chances, I must relent to the impact of the change in course style this week and value of the British Open. Still, it's fair to say that his expectations are equally up and down at Turnberry.
Projection: 26+

Sean O'Hair: I don't know, but I doubt that his newborn son made the trip across the pond. If not, the separation might be the best thing for him this week, giving him a chance to regain some normalcy, particularly in his sleeping pattern. He finished tied for 35th at Congressional in his first start since his son was born, so his game didn't completely evaporate with the big life event. I'm not sure O'Hair has the level of creativity needed to contend on the links format, but he might not have to if his irons are dialed in like they've been most of the year.
Projection: Top 25

Ernie Els: Could there be a guy in the field for whom more people are rooting this week? He hasn't had a bad year by any stretch, but he hasn't exactly contended either. I admit that I see Els through rose-colored glasses simply because I want him to shatter his glass ceiling. He finished tied for eighth at the Memorial and in a tie for 13th at Loch Lomond, so he's right there. Plus, his record at the British is about as incomparable as it gets among active golfers. He's also one of the 21 in the field that played Turnberry in 1994, when he tied for 24th.
Projection: Top 5

David Duval: I don't remember DD having this much fire when he was atop the world. His words are defensive, which is odd since he knows that golf is a results-based meritocracy. I'll give him a pass on the John Deere MC, but the British will either validate or annul his tie for second at the U.S. Open, where he was benefited by the draw. I'm not buying, and I can't wait to hear what he has to say.
Projection: 26+

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