Deep pitching makes Red Sox the team to beat

Tony DeMarco

If we're lucky enough to get a World Series that goes the distance, someone will get a chance to be Mr. November, as Game 7 is set for Nov. 1.

Who's going to be there in the end? Just more than a half season has helped the educated-guessing process. But with 21 teams still qualifying as contenders/potential buyers, it's not exactly a clear picture at this point — especially when we don't know what uniform Roy Halladay will be wearing down the stretch.

But we can slice nine non-contenders/potential sellers from the list right off the bat — from the worst (woeful Washington) to not-that-bad Toronto, and those in between: San Diego, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland and Kansas City.

Everybody else is in one race or another — even the injury-decimated 42-45 New York Mets. Funny thing about the NL playoff picture, though: The wild-card-leading San Francisco Giants are just .001 from having the second-best record in the league, and absolutely nobody is relishing the prospect of facing Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in a five-game division series.

We know the Los Angeles Dodgers can't meet that fate, as the rules won't allow a first-round matchup of teams from the same division. But they clearly are the league's best team at this point, and that isn't likely to change after 162.

Yes, the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher before they run Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario into the ground, and Jonathan Broxton's toe issue is troubling enough that a reliever could be added, too.

But they got to the top mostly without Manny Ramirez, and they're going to stay there with him. Run differential tells the story: At +105, they far and away lead the league, as next come the Phillies at +48.

Yes, we're sticking with the surprising Giants as the wild card. That not-enough-offense idea? It's losing steam. Again, look at the run differential — at +44, they trail only the Dodgers and Phillies. They're middle of the pack in runs scored — and could improve by adding a quality, Freddy Sanchez-type hitter — and their pitching is at or near the league-best.

So who wins the NL East and Central? The teams that are leading them now: the Phillies and Cardinals. The former has enough offense to overcome some sub-par pitching, and figure to pull the trigger to add a frontline starter, perhaps even Halladay. The latter has the NL’s best pitching east of California — and the best offensive player on the planet, which should be enough.

That leaves on the outside looking in:

Aramis Ramirez is back, but the Chicago Cubs still are nothing more than a .500 team, and it's hard to think of them as anything but a dysfunctional mess that will have to be blown up this winter.

The Brewers aren't going to adding a giant CC Sabathia-like figure this time around, and instead will see if Manny Parra and Dave Bush can rebound. With a negative run differential (-5) at this point, that's a risky proposition.

Face it, the Mets aren't winning anything unless Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado get healthy in a hurry. And although the Rockies are a different team under Jim Tracy, the bullpen and left field are trouble spots that must be addressed for them to hang around in the wild-card race.

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Most likely to make a charge: How about the Braves? Rookie standout Tommy Hanson is settling in and Tim Hudson will be back before the end of July, joining Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens and Derek Lowe in what could be the best five-deep rotation down the stretch. But the offense is limited.