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Pistons will make moves, but will anyone else?

Turkoglu, Gordon among few prizes in an offseason that could be quiet

Image: Hedo TurkogluAFP/Getty Images
Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu will be one of the most coveted free agents this summer, but it's not an eye-popping class, writes Ira Winderman.

The restricted angles
All is never as it appears in free agency because of the "restricted" component.

Restricted free agents aren't exactly free. Instead, their 2008-09 teams can match outside offers. Because of that, most outside teams take “why-bother?” approaches when it comes to making bids.

Last season's largest offer sheet, the one made by Memphis for Atlanta's Josh Smith, was quickly matched. Generally only second-tier restricted free agents are allowed to flee, such as Ronny Turiaf's shift last summer from the Lakers to the Warriors.

In essence, the free-agent list is inflated. The odds are minimal that necessary components such as Paul Millsap, Glen Davis, Marin Gortat and Linas Kleiza would be allowed to depart.

Where an offer sheet can prove effective is when a targeted team either is attempting to preserve future cap space or simply can be overpowered financially even by an offer at the $5 million-ish mid-level exception.

New York, for example, would have to think long and hard about matching offer sheets for David Lee or Nate Robinson, with the Knicks' goal of preserving 2010 cap space.

No turning back
Ah, the cost of being a contender.

For Cleveland it will mean having to extend the full mid-level exception for much-needed length on the wing. You don't deal for Shaq and then cut corners. It also likely means having to meet Anderson Varejao's price, now that he is an unrestricted free agent.

Similarly, while the latter stages of this past season featured the debate of whether the Lakers would retain Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza, can a defending champion do anything but bring back its core, regardless of cost?

Further, with the Spurs taking a go-for-it now approach with the acquisition of Richard Jefferson, the pressure figures to be raised in Dallas to retain Jason Kidd, in Denver to retain Chris Andersen, and in Utah to retain Millsap.

Bargain hunting
Because of the lack of cap space around the league and the preference of teams to wait for 2010 to offer long-term deals, several prominent veterans could find themselves settling for short, cheap deals.

Among those could find themselves making such concessions are Allen Iverson, Grant Hill, Wally Szczerbiak, Drew Gooden, Chris Wilcox, Antonio McDyess and Bruce Bowen.

Do they deserve more? Sure, but that's not where the market is this summer.

Predictions
The Knicks lose David Lee and Nate Robinson, but manage to work out a sign-and-trade for Lee that gives them a replacement player with one year remaining on his contract … Mike Bibby finds himself with a low-ball offer from the Hawks, and very little outside interest … Jason Kidd threatens to bolt for the mid-level with a contender, but ultimately listens to Mark Cuban's money …

Stephon Marbury languishes on the market until just before training camp … Allen Iverson potentially lasts on the market even longer … Rasheed Wallace attracts numerous mid-level offers, pronouncing himself newly motivated before signing in Orlando or San Antonio… Hedo Turkoglu gets the 10 figures he covets ... Shawn Marion doesn't … Lamar Odom returns to the Lakers on a home-team discount.

Final thoughts
Remember, a team can either use cap space or exceptions in a calendar personnel year (July through June), meaning it cannot use its space and then utilize a mid-level exception… Players with less than full 2009-10 guarantees figure to be particularly coveted. Jerry Stackhouse, for example, has only $2 million of next season's $7.3 million guaranteed. So a team can unload $7.3 million in salaries on Dallas and then cut Stackhouse, taking only a $2 million cap hit…

While you will hear plenty about the value of expiring contracts, teams looking to maximize 2010 cap space cannot afford to deal those expiring 2009-10 deals for players who hold contracts that extend into 2010-11 or beyond. In other words, don't overstate the Heat's trade value of Jermaine O'Neal or the Knicks' trade value of Larry Hughes.


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