Tom E. Curran • E-mail

A "shovel ready" project? How about the 2009 Colts? Training camp hasn’t even started, yet Indy’s already emerged as a vogue team to bury.

Tony Dungy’s gone from the sidelines to an NBC analyst’s chair. Marvin Harrison’s gone. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd are currently in retired/consultancy limbo. Meanwhile, the players on the field aren’t getting any younger.

With change being the main constant of Indy’s offseason, it would seem the franchise’s fortunes are – for the first time since 1999 – uncertain.

Of course, Indy hasn’t rolled up six straight seasons of 12 or more wins by going weak-kneed when things change. Still, this is undeniably the biggest overhaul the Colts have undergone.

And questions about Indy trying to squeeze through a closing window aren’t unfair or unfounded.

Indy started 2008 with a 3-4 record before willing itself to nine consecutive wins and another 12-4 record. And the Colts finished out of first place in the AFC South for the first time since 2002.

With Jim Caldwell succeeding Dungy, will the Colts remain among the AFC elite? Or did last season’s staggering start and one-and-done playoff performance signal that they are trending toward being just another good team? And how will Caldwell, the former quarterbacks coach, deal with everyone watching over his shoulder for signs of team-wide slippage?

Start first with the challenges facing Caldwell. At 54, he’s never been an NFL head coach (he was in charge at Wake Forest from 1993-2000). That really doesn’t matter. John Harbaugh, who took the Ravens to the AFC Championship last year, had never been a head coach. Neither had Sean Payton before he took over the Saints in 2006 and was named NFL Coach of the Year. We could go on, but the point is moot. More important than having led teams in the past is being ready with a formulated plan and philosophy to lead them when your time comes. And this is Caldwell’s biggest challenge.

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Dungy’s long goodbye in Indy gave the Colts ample time to groom successors. But the fact he walked after a brilliant run and wasn’t fired will make it harder for Caldwell to blaze his own trail. Dungy was an icon, as synonymous with the Colts success as Peyton Manning. That’s a hard act to follow.

This offseason, both Caldwell and Peyton Manning have grappled with what the switch means.

At a recent charity golf tournament, Manning told the media, "Even though Coach Dungy will not be on the sidelines, the winning atmosphere and environment that he created will still carry through in our building. We'll still feel his presence on the sideline."

Speaking to Sports Illustrated, Caldwell said, "Often the word change denotes abrupt alteration of direction. Transition is smoother. The things that have happened with us have been rather smooth.”

Not everything. When offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd both retired because of league changes regarding employee pension plans, then tried to unretire, Manning didn’t mask his irritation with the uncertainty after years of having the same coaches in his ear. Now, owner Jim Irsay says Moore and Mudd will return to their roles for this season.

But the way Manning bristled, saying the communication was "poor" and adding, "I’m not sure everybody’s on the same page in this building" hinted at the fact that the Colts have work to do when it comes to rolling with the punches on a changing staff.

On the field, fewer things have changed. Yes, Harrison’s gone but his role as the Colts’ No. 1 receiver was usurped by 30-year-old Reggie Wayne years ago. Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark are good and very good receivers respectively. Manning, even at 33, will still be one of the two best quarterbacks in the league. And the Colts horrific 2008 running game (31st in yards with 1,274) should improve with center Jeff Saturday returning from injury. And the backfield added some oomph to the presence of veteran Joseph Addai with UConn rookie Donald Brown.

For all the changes swirling around the offensive staff, the Indy defense is probably going to be where a real post-Dungy vibe is felt.

Larry Coyer, formerly with Denver, is the new defensive coordinator. And, with signings and draft choices, the Colts worked hard to return the talent level on the defensive line to 2007 levels. With Dwight Freeney coming off the edge and still in his prime, Indy won’t lack for a pass-rush terror. But on the back side of the defense, Coyer has to make do with mediocre linebackers and deal with the uncertainty of safety Bob Sanders' health. When he’s out there, he alters the league. When he’s not – and he often isn’t – the Colts are an average or below defense.

The defensive slippage and lack of a running game in 2008 were big contributors to Indy’s grip on the AFC South being broken. But so too was the emergence of Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Texans are going to break through one of these years. And Jacksonville is in now-or-never mode. It isn’t a cakewalk down there anymore.

It’s going to be different not seeing Dungy – arms folded over his blue sweater vest, face stoic – presiding over another ho-hum 14-win season. But different isn’t necessarily bad.

"You see changes, so you automatically think it's going to be for the worse,” Dwight Freeney said during OTAs. Maybe the changes bring something else — something good. Maybe it helps guys be even more accountable and more responsible for what they do on the field. Change is not always a bad thing."

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