True value surfaces in the playoffs

Sept. 29 - It’s easy to compare the value of baseball players during the regular season. But when the playoffs roll around, the pressure increases, and it’s time for the stars to really earn their money. Let’s take a look at some of the key matchups in each playoff series.

WHO’S WORTH MORE AS A PLAYOFF PERFORMER: LOWE AND MARTINEZ OR ZITO AND HUDSON?

What the Market Says: Welcome to the battle of small market pitching against big market offense, with one of the most expensive big-game pitchers in baseball thrown into the mix. At $1.1 million and $2.7 per year, respectively, the combined salaries of Zito and Hudson barely edge out Derek Lowe’s $3.6 million tab, but Martinez wins the battle of the pitching checkbooks hands down, getting paid $15.5 million a year to dominate AL hitters.

What Salary Guy Says: First things first: how much of a pitcher’s salary value should be allocated to his playoff performance? Given the importance of pitching and the long grind of a 162-game schedule, 25% is probably a fair number. Most of the investment goes to getting a club into the playoffs, but pitching takes center stage in the postseason as the cream of the best rotations rises to the top during October baseball.

Boston’s strategy is based largely on Martinez’s overwhelming postseason value: steal Game 1 in Oakland, relying on his sterling postseason track record, then hope to play .500 ball at worst through the rest of the series.

But Lowe is part of the fly in the ointment. On paper, the combination of his earlier postseason numbers (1-1, 2.86 ERA) and a 17-7 regular season record makes him a solid bet to pick up another game. But Lowe was a setup man when he posted his earlier playoff stats, and his 4.47 ERA in an up-and-down season makes for a much shakier reality. It speaks volumes about Boston’s confidence in Lowe that the Sox have backed him up to Saturday at Fenway, in part to get around his horrendous 6.11 road ERA.

The A’s, meanwhile, have gotten plenty of regular-season bang for their buck from Hudson and Zito, but their playoff numbers have declined as Oakland’s postseason struggles have increased. After establishing themselves as excellent playoff pitchers in the first couple of years of their career, both Zito (4.50) and Hudson (6.23) played a pivotal part in last season’s Minnesota meltdown, and they clearly have some work to do to restore their reputation.

Hudson has already outdueled Pedro once during the regular season, and he has pitched well enough down the stretch to give Oakland a shot at beating Martinez. But Zito’s inability to dominate, along with his struggles with spotty offensive support, have raised serious questions. He spent much of the year pitching off his breaking ball rather than his fastball, and you have to wonder whether the constant diet of curves have taken a toll on his arm.

The Bottom Line: As good as Martinez is, there’s little doubt that Zito and Hudson are the better value as playoff performers given how little they’re making. With the home field advantage and the best closer in the AL behind them, they’re a solid bet to shut down the Sox and get Oakland to the next round. But the fate of “Moneyball” and Beane’s reputation as a small market genius rests squarely on their shoulders, and they’ll need to be dominant throughout this series.

For the Sox, Martinez will be questioned once again by Boston’s hyper-neurotic fan base if he fails to get the first game, and Lowe’s performance in Fenway will go a long way toward determining his chance to earn a new big-money contract as a Sox starter once his current deal expires next year. But the biggest obstacle both hurlers face is the prospect of seeing their work circle the drain when the Boston pen comes in behind them, and that variable makes the A’s hurlers the better bet in the playoffs.

WHO’S WORTH MORE AS A PLAYOFF PERFORMER: MIKE MUSSINA OR BRAD RADKE?

What the Market Says: Radke represents the Twins only nod to current market reality in the pitching department; two years ago, to keep him from fleeing to a big-spending team, they signed him to a 4-year deal that paid him $8.75 million this year. Mussina is the Yankees’ token ace on a rotation full of All-Stars and future Hall of Famers, making $12 million dollars as part of a landmark $75 million deal he signed three years ago.

What Salary Guy Says: Normally managers set up their opening-round rotation to get their ace in the first and fifth games, but it speaks volumes about Radke’s struggles this year that the Twins are listing red-hot Johan Santana as their No. 1 gun to go against Mussina. Instead, Radke will match up against Andy Pettitte, New York’s best clutch pitcher, in the second game.

InsertArt(2027637)The reason for the shift is obvious: Radke’s glaring 4.49 ERA. He pitched better down the stretch, but given the chaos in the Twins rotation in the first half, it makes sense for the Twins to go with the hot hand. If Santana can hold the fort against Mussina, the Twins will count on Radke to duplicate last year’s postseason numbers. He wasn’t dominant, but his 2.70 ERA last year against Oakland and Anaheim gives the Twins some hope for the first two games of this series.

Mussina has been an impressive regular season hurler, but he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a postseason pitcher, and he probably has the most playoff baggage among the Yankee starters. His opening game loss at Arizona two years ago in the World Series set the stage for the Diamondbacks’ home domination, and his inability to hold 3-0 and 6-3 leads against Anaheim last year was pivotal to New York’s flameout in the ALCS. The good news this year is that he doesn’t have to be dominant against the Twins. With the lineup he has behind him, a solid, quality start will probably get the job done.

The Bottom Line: All the shuffling between Santana and Radke looks suspiciously like whistling in the dark. The Yankees have been vulnerable to teams with tough, top-to-bottom lineups that can expose New York’s starters, but the Twins will have to rely on stealing a game with small-ball and then hoping Metrodome magic can take hold. Radke stands little chance of shutting down the Yankees powerhouse lineup, and Mussina represents the better playoff value despite his larger salary occasional and his occasional postseason failures in the past.

WHO HAS MORE VALUE AS A PLAYOFF PERFORMER: SOSA OR SHEFFIELD?

What the Market Says: Sosa earned his $16.9 million for his run of 60 home run seasons as well as his long-ball competition with Mark McGwire a few years back, but his track record as a playoff record is much shorter (one series in 1998) and a lot more suspect. Sheffield makes $11 million a year — at least until he can whine his way into a new deal — and the shining star in his postseason track record is three solid postseason series in 1997 as he went 15 for 50 with 3 HR and 7 RBI in leading the Marlins during their title run.

What Salary Guy Says: Despite their formidable reputations, both of these guys have some playoff baggage coming into this series. Sosa will be looking to make up for his .182 showing against the Braves in 1998, with Sheffield trying to atone for last year’s .062 stinker against the Giants.

Sosa’s task will be a lot tougher. He doesn’t have much playoff experience behind him aside from Moises Alou and Kenny Lofton, and everyone knows he basically has to carry the Cubs offensively if they’re going anywhere in the postseason. The good news is that the Braves staff is considerably more vulnerable this time around, and Sosa comes in hot after waking up the slumbering Chicago offense with one of his patented tears in the last month of the season.

Sheffield has a lot more going for him. The Braves have two of the best tablesetters in baseball in Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles, and Sheffield is surrounded by the likes of Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones as the complementary power bats in the lineup. While Sosa will face the pressure of performing with every at-bat, Sheffield will have the luxury of being able to wait for his pitch, which should help considerably against three hurlers with no postseason experience.

The Bottom Line: Marquee hitters like Sosa and Sheffield earn a higher percentage of their money during the postseason; with opposing staffs focused to stop them, the number probably goes up to about 33 percent. For Sosa it might be as high as 50 percent; if he doesn’t hit against the Braves, the Cubs pitchers will get a pass for their youth and inexperience, but his season will be viewed as a failure.

Given the lineup edge he has going into the series, look for Sheffield to outhit Sammy and maintain his value as the better playoff performer. The Braves will be focused on shutting down Sosa, and he can probably count on one hand the number of good pitches he’ll see in this series. The only way he can outduel Sheffield is if Wood, Prior and Zambrano turn these games into pitching duels and Sammy can provide more big hits in the clutch.

WHO’S WORTH MORE AS A PLAYOFF PERFORMER: BARRY BONDS OR THE FLORIDA PRODUCTION HITTERS (LEE, LOWELL AND PUDGE)?

What the Market Says: Bonds gets $18 million a year to shatter records and fill up McCovey Cove with long balls, and last year he got the playoff monkey off his back in a big way with a brilliant run against Anaheim in the World Series.

The Marlins production combo of Ivan Rodriguez ($10 million), Derrek Lee ($4.25 million) and Mike Lowell ($3.7 million) barely equals Bond’s $18 million a year salary, and they produced almost 80 homers and nearly 300 RBI. It only seems like Bonds gets that many homers during an average season.

What Salary Guy Says: As great as Bonds is, the Giants’ transition to become more of a speed team makes Barry even better. Last year teams could walk Bonds, cross their fingers and hope that Kent and company wouldn’t bomb them out of the game with a big rally. This year, though, walking Bonds just increases the odds that San Francisco will score consistently throughout the game, a tendency that doesn’t bode well for Florida’s young pitching staff.

Florida’s bangers don’t match up well with Bonds, but the middle of the Marlins lineup is definitely underrated. Derrek Lee has become one of the best-kept secrets in baseball as a production hitter, and Lowell was having a career year before his midseason wrist injury took him out through late September. Pudge supplies some much-needed postseason experience, but the bad news is that Lowell will be trying to get back into the swing of things while under the glare of the microscope in his first postseason series.

The Bottom Line: Given last year’s near miss in the World Series and Bonds’ constant ability to deliver in the clutch despite his father’s untimely passing, it’s safe to say that Barry’s emotional focus has never been sharper. He didn’t quite beat out his godfather, Willie Mays, in the career home run department, but there’s no doubt that Bonds would like to compensate by paying tribute to his late father and getting that ring. If he starts splashing balls into McCovey Cove, Florida’s postseason experience will be a short one.

Florida’s big three won’t be able to out-produce Bonds, but their one chance is to hit consistently and get support from the rest of the lineup. If Jeff Conine (5 September homers), Juan Encarnacion (19 HR, 94 RBI) and Alex Gonzalez (18 HR, 77 RBI) can deliver behind Lee, Lowell and Pudge, the Marlins could generate enough offense to set the Giants back on their heels.

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Bob McCullough writes regularly for NBCSports.com and is a freelance writer based in Boston.