B.C., Arizona in line for a decline in 2009
Golden Eagles, Wildcats lead list of teams in trouble this coming season
Dean Hare / APMike Stoops and Arizona face six tough road games this season.
Matt Hayes' five biggest declines:
1. Boston College, minus-5
2008 record: 9-5
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Where do we begin? How about the quarterback spot, where the Eagles lost a fifth-year starter to graduation and projected starter Dominique Davis — who started three games last year — is transferring after being suspended for academic problems. That probably leaves redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle to quarterback the team with a new, first-time coach and two new coordinators. And for added difficulty: Tuggle isn't a pure pro-style passer. The offense probably will have to be changed to work with his dual-threat abilities. There are holes on defense that will be exposed when the offense can't move the ball consistently. New coach Frank Spaziani's job was hard enough, considering the circumstances of replacing a fired coach who led the team to back-to-back appearances in the ACC championship game. The tenuous situation at quarterback could make it untenable.
2. Tulsa, minus-4
2008 record: 11-3
2009 projection: 7-6
Here's why: You can't underestimate the impact of the loss of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. Especially considering the Golden Hurricane will begin this fall with a new quarterback (for the third time in three seasons) and without all-time leading rusher Tarrion Adams, a bruiser who never got the credit he deserved in handling a huge load of the offense. That quarterback Jacob Bower didn't embrace the starter's job in spring practice can't be good for a unit that has holes to fill and needed something good to build on through the summer. Freshman Shavodrick Beaver, a four-star recruit who originally committed to Michigan before signing with Tulsa, could be the answer at quarterback. If he is, the offense will struggle early against a schedule that includes four of the first five games on the road.
3. Missouri, minus-4
2008 record: 10-4
2009 projection: 6-7
Here's why: Now we see if Missouri really has turned the corner. The Tigers lost three of the best players in the program's history (QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman) and 22 seniors — and will start the rebuilding process with two new coordinators. The Tigers had serious issues on defense even when the offense was humming along at 40 points a game. What happens when inexperienced quarterback Blaine Gabbert takes over with a new receiving corps and there are more three-and-outs in the first game than there were in the first half of last season? Here's what happens: The defense gets tired and more pressure is thrown on an offense that has zero time to adjust. This can't end pretty.
4. Arizona, minus-4
2008 record: 8-5
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Mike Stoops has one winning season in five years at Arizona, and his teams have a history of slow starts and lousy performances against non-BCS teams. So what comes to Tucson to start the season, you ask? MAC heavyweight Central Michigan and its dangerous, pass-happy offense. If Arizona loses, all that momentum from last year's bowl season will wash away. That makes things a lot tougher on a team that will inevitably have a quarterback controversy — Nick Foles or Matt Scott? — and has a lack of elite players in the defensive front seven. If you can't stop offenses in the Pac-10, you better at least be able to score enough to keep up. A loss to CMU has Arizona staring at a 1-3 record for the month of September (CMU, Northern Arizona, at Iowa, at Oregon State), and a big step back from 2008.
5. Minnesota, minus-3
2008 record: 7-6
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Gone are the lightweight nonconference games and quirky Big Ten schedule rotation. The Gophers go from four gimmes to start the season to three non-con games: at Syracuse (which will not be easy) and home against Air Force and California. The Big Ten schedule includes road games against the league's three best teams: Ohio State, Penn State (back on the schedule) and Iowa -- and a home game against Michigan State (back on the schedule). A defense that collapsed in the second half of last season, giving up 161 points in the last four games, still doesn't have enough speed (never a good sign). It may be deep in the tank after the first month of the season, considering Air Force's triple option attack and Cal's run/pass balance.
© 2012 Sporting News
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