For residual intents and purposes, the Byron Nelson marks the final unofficial qualifier for the U.S. Open before the official qualifiers are contested in coming weeks. Although tournament organizers would have preferred the event to rank a little higher on everyone's list of priorities, particularly with a prime spot on the schedule (no longer preceding Quail Hollow and THE PLAYERS) following a splendid year after the redo at the TPC Las Colinas, there may not be a better case this year of "what the tour can do for me" instead of Commissioner Tim Finchem's decree for the reverse. A dearth of star power isn't new, but it is a bit of a surprise this week.

Instead, Sunday's focus could boil down to a numbers game in terms of who gets a pass on sectional qualifying for the U.S. Open. Once the 2009 Nelson is in the books, the top 10 on the PGA Tour money list will snag a tee time at Bethpage in June. Then, Monday's Official World Golf Ranking will also grant its top 50 berths into the major. Of those currently not yet eligible, Sean O'Hair (4th in earnings, 12th in the OWGR), Nick Watney (6th, 29th) and Paul Casey (7th, 7th) are safe through both channels. Naturally, along with many others already eligible, they are not in the field this week. Meanwhile, there are eight golfers sitting 11th-20th in earnings that have yet to qualify: Kevin Na (12th), Brian Gay (14th), Ian Poulter (15th), David Toms (16th), Charley Hoffman (17th), Pat Perez (18th), Jerry Kelly (19th) and John Rollins (20th). Perez (62nd in the OWGR) is out for two months, and Kelly (85th) is taking the week off, but the other six are committed. Poulter is 18th in the OWGR, so he'll be at Bethpage. That leaves Toms as the next best at 47th hoping to hang on. Gay is 56th and needs a solid week after battling an illness. Rounding out the rest, Na ranks 72nd, Rollins is 81st and Hoffman is 87th.

Earnings leader, Phil Mickelson (2nd in the OWGR), withdrew (read more below), leaving Vijay Singh as the only guy inside the Top 10 in the world, (9th) in the field. (Anthony Kim is next at 15th in the world.) I'll forever side with the independent contractor argument, but tournament officials cannot be pleased, no matter what they say.

The 156 that WILL be in attendance this week will be faced with the ultimate target golf challenge. With greens undulating in all directions, distance control from the tee will be imperative. Not unlike cousin, TPC River Highlands, or even Harbour Town, approach shots in between clubs are likely to come to rest in any number of collection areas, stressing up-and-down prowess. From our standpoint, this creates a problem, because so much is about the static value. Golf is fickle enough without concerning ourselves with the flier lies. For example, Nicholas Thompson ranked outside the Top 40 in fairways hits and GIR last year, yet finished T-4. Mark Hensby finished outside the Top 30 in fairways, GIR and putts per round, but matched Nitro after 72 holes. Now, when was the last time you plugged either of these guys into your weekly lineups? Exactly. Go with the chalk this week and take your par. Humility is a virtue.

Scorecard

HP Byron Nelson Championship
May 21-24
Tournament #22 of 46
TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas [Irving, TX]
Par 35-35=70 – 7,166 yards
Years hosted – 1986-present
Purse: $6,500,000 (Winner-$1,170,000)
Field size: 156
Cut: Top 70 & ties after 36 holes (if >78 golfers are tied, another cut of Top 70 & ties will occur after 54 holes)

The elements
SKY: several dry days through the cut will allow for fast greens and honest scores; no rain in the forecast until the weekend and even that is merely a cautionary tale
WIND: moderate easterly breezes throughout; note below that scoring was at its lowest last year with a similar direction and velocity in the 3rd round
TEMP: mid 80s

2008 – Course Scoring Averages (Weather)
Round 1 – 72.410 (SKY: partly cloudy … WIND: S 15-25 mph, gusts to 33 mph … TEMP: 85)
Round 2 – 71.643 (SKY: mostly cloudy ... WIND: W-SW 15-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph … TEMP: n/a)
Round 3 – 70.987 (SKY: sunny … WIND: E 10-15 mph … TEMP: 78)
Round 4 – 73.066 (SKY: mostly cloudy … WIND: N 15-20 mph, gusts 30 mph … TEMP: 57)

In defense
Adam Scott. Hey, I remember this guy! Drained that 48-footer to beat Ryan Moore in the playoff. Good times, good times … That was then, this is "Ow!" Let him go through the swing change alone. I feel for the long-term formats that invested in January and the trade leagues that turned down offers for guys like Nick Watney, Charley Hoffman and Brian Davis after Scott finished T-2 at the Sony. I really DO feel because I've been living with Vijay Singh and Colt Knost since Draft Day. We all have our burdens.
Projection: MC

Championship flight
Phil Mickelson. *** ALERT *** He withdrew on Wednesday when it was announced that his wife, Amy, was diagnosed with breast cancer. David Toms has assumed my projection as this week's winner.

Vijay Singh. Don't be fooled by the back-door T-9 at Sawgrass. However, if there is something to be gained from that Sunday 67 at THE PLAYERS, it's that he hit 13 GIR and needed only 26 putts. Like Lefty, he didn't play in last year's Nelson, but it's not like either are new to the confines.
Projection: Top 25

Justin Leonard. His ball flight doesn't exactly make him a contender, especially if the greens are hard. Leonard is tremendous about limiting his mistakes and capitalizing on green-light pins, but last year's T-19 is a terrific indicator of where he'll finish this week. If Las Colinas gets any rain on the weekend, then bump it to a Top 10.
Projection: Top 25

Ian Poulter. He's beginning a three-week stint in the U.S., eschewing the BMW PGA Championship and European Open, but don't expect the same next year if he's in need of European Ryder Cup points. He's absolutely dialed in right now and riding a wave of confidence we've never seen before.
Projection: Top 10

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Hunter Mahan. It helps that he's a local, but his ball-striking and aggressive play is a nice fit this week, although we'll find out if that third-round 75 at THE PLAYERS is a blip (he hit just seven GIR that day en route to an MDF). Hasn't missed a cut since the PGA Championship, a stretch of 16 consecutive paydays, good for T-3 (with Kenny Perry) behind Tiger Woods (35) and Charley Hoffman (21).
Projection: Top 5

Davis Love III. At 54th in the world ranking and 37th on the money list, isn't it about time that DL3 squeezes into one of these 11th-hour merit cuts for a major? He just missed for the Masters. Again. Hasn't played here since 2002 and spent last week Twittering, er, crossing the country in the Kyle Petty Charity Ride. In fact, he wasted little time in joining the pilgrimage in Sun Valley, Idaho after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS. Should be a breeze for him to finish inside the Top 25, and you'll understand if he says he's wiped.
Projection: Top 25

Charles Howell III. After the T-2 in New Orleans, has missed two of two cuts, due to a regression with his putter. Didn't play in the '08 Nelson and has missed the cut four times in six appearances. He's had segments in each of the last three seasons that he's missed at least three straight cuts, so don't fall off your chair. He's still one of the better long-term owns out there.
Projection: MC

Brian Gay. Tough call considering he's been battling an illness. In a perfect world, Las Colinas is a wonderful set-up for his ball-striking, just like Harbour Town; however, since his runaway victory, all he's done is go 80-WD at THE PLAYERS.
Projection: 26+

Brian Davis. On some kind of roll lately, with matching T-5s in the last two weeks. Co-led the field in GIR at THE PLAYERS, then finished 2nd in fairways hit at La Cantera. Also has a string of 16 consecutive rounds of par of better coming in. He had never had back-to-back Top 10s on the PGA Tour until now. Heady stuff, even for a 34-year-old in his prime. I'm sticking with the law of averages for the non-winner. This will also be his sixth straight event on the schedule.
Projection: Top 25

Ryan Moore. I'd love to know what gives with his glass ceiling if not the choice of ambiguous apparel. Almost 57 percent of last year's on-course income was due to his P-2 a year ago at this event. Meanwhile, he's coming off a 75-84 weekend at THE PLAYERS.
Projection: 26+