Mike Celizic

It’s not that Danica Patrick has disappeared in the four years since she electrified the nation by leading the Indy 500 before finishing fourth in her rookie season. Far from it. Just turn on your television or browse a magazine rack, and you’d be forgiven for concluding she’s got some god-like power to be everywhere at once.

There’s Danica on a fashion runway. Danica on the field before a Cubs game. Danica on Letterman. Danica flogging products on TV. Danica in the "Sports Illustrated" swimsuit edition. Danica in FHM. Danica with Ludacris. Danica with Jay-Z. Danica on Conan. Danica on “American Chopper.”

It’s easier to say where she’s not rather than where she is. You could narrow that down to one location: first place.

This might be starting to be a problem for the most exciting personality to hit Indy Car racing in years. Although Danicamania continues in commercials and magazines and lifestyle features, she’s not generating much buzz on the sports pages as the days count down to Sunday’s Indy 500, the most famous race in American auto sports. (Sorry, Daytona, it just is.)

And it’s all because other than one race early last year in Japan, Danica never has won.

Indianapolis 500 Castroneves wins third Indy 500 Danica comes close, finishes third Fans tightening belts at Indy 500 Driver breaks back in crash, should be OK Notebook: Petty enjoys being royalty Benson: NASCAR would welcome Danica Weigh in: Should Danica make the jump?   Indy 500 traditions |   History and records   Dixon reflects on his 2008 Indy 500 win

The win in Japan was historic. No woman had ever won a major auto race, and she pulled it off. We all hailed the moment and hoped it would be the start of a dominant run that would propel her and IRL racing to a place of prominence in American sports.

But since that race, Patrick hasn’t won. And the fourth-place finish in her inaugural Indy 500 remains her best finish in that race.

Yes, Patrick is improving in the points standing and finished sixth overall last year, which is nothing to sneeze at. But it was sixth place among a bunch of people most casual sports fans have never heard of. Pole winner Ryan Briscoe, Marco Andretti, Dario Franchitti (better known as Ashley Judd's husband) and Tony Kanaan — all known to IRL fans, but not to casual fans.

Maybe if she was in NASCAR — a consummation many would love to see — that would be a big deal. But this is the IRL, which is to auto racing what the MLS is to American team sports. The sports true believers know all about it; the rest of us don’t have a clue, nor do we want one.

Slideshow   Danica daze IndyCar star has become one of the racing world's biggest stars. more photos

What makes this Indy 500 maybe the make-it-or-break-it race for Patrick and the IRL is that she’s in the last year of her contract with Andretti Green Racing. NASCAR probably would love to put a babe in a stock car to trade paint with the good old boys while the beer-cooler crowd in the infield goes crazy. Patrick also has had feelers from Formula One teams in Europe. She says she loves the open-wheeled Indy Racing League cars, but she’s also shown a keen head for self-promotion. And she might realize that with the IRL, it’s a matter of if she can’t make it there, she can make it elsewhere — or at least rake in a lot of bucks trying.

The problem with racing in the IRL is the same as it is with all those who toil at the fringes of sports. If you want to succeed in a big way, you can’t be 10th-best or even second-best. You have to be the best.

The way it works in Indy Car racing is first you get a ride, then you race a lot, then you win a race, then you win another race and a whole lot more. And if you’re dashing and handsome — make that hard-charging and gorgeous for Patrick — you become a star outside your diehard audience and your sport suddenly finds itself in the mainstream.

Slideshow   Indy 500 contenders Take a look at some of the drivers who could race away with a win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. more photos

But if you don’t keep winning, the casual fans who got all worked up when you hit the circuit stop paying attention, not just to you, but to the entire sport. Call it the Michelle Wie Syndrome.

This is no knock on the IRL, a form of racing I happen to have a great deal of affection for. It’s competitive, the open-wheeled cars are what racing machines should be, and it’s got the requisite crashes to make it all exciting.

But there’s a battle for sports-entertainment dollars that has grown sharper with the ongoing recession. To get casual fans to tune in and part with their dwindling dollars, you’ve got to excite them. That’s why the NHL keeps plugging Sidney Crosby in the Stanley Cup playoffs and why the NBA is praying that Kobe and LeBron wind up across from each other in the NBA Finals. It’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t happen, especially to the core fans. But it’s not going to set ratings records or draw big advertising dollars, either.

This puts Danica at something of a crossroads as she gets ready to start this Sunday’s Indy 500, and her sport is riding along with her. To make IRL racing relevant all year round, Patrick either must win or be in it right down to the wire. If she rolls to just another top 10 finish, as impressive as that may be in her sport, the average sports fan isn’t going to care.

Slideshow   Week in Sports Pictures A boxing champ celebrates, a kicker regrets, fans mourn a hero, and much more. more photos

Four years ago, a lot of us watched Indy from start to finish, all the while keeping track of Patrick. When she took the lead in the late stages of the race, we were seeing something no one ever had before. That she faded to fourth because her car wasn’t the equal of others in the race didn’t matter. We were sure she had arrived.

Patrick is not in her fifth season, and she hasn’t done any better in the only race than counts than she did that first year. It’s certainly not entirely her fault. To win the race, you have to have a car that can win it, and Patrick hasn’t had that. But, again, the casual fan doesn’t understand that or care about it. All they want to see is the girl driver somewhere near the front. And if they tune the race in and she’s not there, they’re switching channels and they’re not going back.

The media has already reached that juncture. She’s in the race, but she’s not getting the special treatment she used to. She’s becoming the worst possible story — just another driver.

It’s time to win or move on.

Also on NBCSports.com Rosenthal: Steelers’ struggles could sink their playoff hopes Circling the Bases: Halladay to Cubs? That’s unlikely College Football Talk: Weis to resign? That’s ‘not happening’ Opinion: So far, Nowitzki is NBA’s MVP  |  Fan Ranker Twitter: Follow us @nbc_sports

MORE FROM NASCAR / MOTORS

NASCAR / Motors Section Front

Johnson races to 4th straight NASCAR title   Johnson's dominance not embraced by fans     Vote: Is Johnson the greatest NASCAR driver ever?     Vote: Will Johnson win fifth straight NASCAR title next year?   Montoya-Stewart add spark to finale Hamlin established as 2010 contender   Martin settles for 2nd again Latest NASCAR videos Live odds Matchups/injuries   NASCAR / Motors Section Front   Add NASCAR / Motors headlines to your news reader: