300 wins tough, but what about 200?

Roger Clemens’ quest to reach 300 wins was compelling for many reasons: the unique sense of history, the twists and turns of the Yankees story line during the final weeks, and the miracle of watching a power pitcher who can still mix 95 mph heat and nosediving splitters when the occasion demands at the age of 40.

BUT PERHAPS THE most compelling aspect of Clemens quest was the question it raised: Was his 300th victory a once-in-a-baseball-generation event, or the last time we’ll see anyone other than possibly Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine make a run at 300?

The consensus among the experts is that 300 is now an unreachable number, thanks to bullpen specialization, the lack of starters who can go deep into games and the lack of longevity among pitchers in general, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling aside.

Although that might be true, there are plenty of solid candidates to get 200 wins among today’s younger starters. Predicting 300-game winners may be a crapshoot, but the list of under-30 starters who could get to 200 begins with the A’s big three, and there are at least a half-dozen other younger pitchers who look like they have the right stuff to make a long-term run.

And although the particulars of the modern game make 300 wins problematic, the modern system of free agency allows them to control their own destiny. Theoretically, that means they could pitch for contenders through most of their careers, something that may enable them to pile up wins faster than their predecessors.

Here’s a rundown on the guys who should and the pitchers who could get to 200, along with a few who may surprise us and go beyond.

1. Barry Zito, Oakland A’s: With 54 wins at 25, Zito’s win/age ratio is the best of ratio of Oakland’s big three, making him the most likely to win the race to 200.

But he could go further. Because Zito’s dominant pitch is the hook and he has a superb ability to locate, he is similar to Seattle’s Jamie Moyer and won’t wear out his arm in his mid-thirties. That would allow him to continue to win 12-15 games a season, which means a run to 300 could become viable if Zito proves to be durable and pitches to 40 or beyond. Providing he stays reasonably healthy and stays with contenders, Zito should be able to win at least 15 games a year from 25-35, especially given his competitiveness and his ability to go deep into games. If you’re looking for the logical successor to Bert Blyleven, this guy is it. And he doesn’t even give up gopher balls.

2. Tim Hudson, Oakland A’s: Hudson’s early numbers look solid for a run to 200. On the plus side, Hudson has been very durable for his stature, both in terms of his arm and the lack of nagging injuries that are pivotal to any pitcher winning consistently on an annual basis. The fly in the ointment is Hudson’s size — even if he does stay healthy and pitch well, very few smaller pitchers have held up well enough to break the 200-win barrier.

3. Mark Mulder, Oakland A’s: As a power pitcher with size and an above-average breaking ball, Mulder might have the best physical equipment to get 200 wins and perhaps go beyond. He tends to hang breaking balls and leave balls up when he doesn’t have his best stuff, but he has also exhibited an uncanny ability to go deep into games and win. Mulder’s Achilles’ heel could be his arm health — he already has broken down once in his career, and elbow tendinitis slowed him last season. But 250 wins is a definite possibility if he stays reasonably healthy.

4. Kevin Millwood, Philadelphia Phillies: Two years ago, the idea of Millwood reaching 200 wins seemed patently absurd. But after his big season last year for the Braves and his stellar performance so far for the Phillies this year, Millwood’s light bulb has finally gone on, and he has developed into a geniune No. 1 starter. His stuff probably isn’t good enough for him to be successful much past his mid-thirties, but if he picks the right club for his new deal next season and sprinkles a couple of 20-win seasons while averaging 15 for the rest of the next seven seasons, Millwood looks like a solid bet to join the 200-win club.

5. Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees: It hardly seems possible that Pettitte has reached the dark side of 30 — even at 31, he still looks 25, and time certainly does fly when you’re busy winning championships. Pettitte has been a good pitcher with great timing in his career, a combination that has put him within range of 200 wins. That figure remains within reach because of the offensive talent around him and the lack of pressure given the other arms on the staff, but Pettitte will need at least two more big years to make the final push to 200. His ability to make that run will also depend on two factors: his elbow and shoulder health, and the ability of the Yankees to maintain continuity and win when Joe Torre steps down.

6. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays. In retrospect, it’s remarkable that Halladay has almost made it to 50 wins, given how quickly he was rushed to the majors to pitch for a bad ball club. All the physical tools are there — Halladay is big, throws hard and has been durable, and he started to mature in leaps and bounds during his breakthrough season last year. If G.M. J.P. Ricciardi can continue to lead the Blue Jays back to contention, 200-250 wins seems like a reasonable possibility for Halladay. One factor working against him is having to pitch on the phony turf at Skydome, which could cost him 3-5 wins a year even though he’s not a ground-ball pitcher.

7. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians: Sabathia shot out of the gate with a 17-win campaign as a rookie, and he proved his mental toughness last season by getting 13 wins even as the Indians unloaded proven veterans in a salary dump. Sabathia has great stuff and a fast start working in his favor, but pitching for the Tribe during their rebuilding years could slow him down. Physically, Sabathia’s biggest concern is his David Wells-size waistline, which could lead to a Bartolo Colon-like decline as he gets older.

8. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs: To date, Wood’s story has had all the classic “too much, too fast, too soon” elements of a young phenom learning the ropes: arm trouble, struggles with inconsistency and a lack of run support from a mediocre club. For all the hardship and setbacks, though, Wood is still poised to be a pitching force who could win 15-20 games a year for the next 10 seasons, especially with a manager like Dusty Baker who could keep the Cubs in contention for at least the next few years. Wood’s biggest issue is still consistency — he still doesn’t win tight pitching duels often enough, and he has yet to learn how to win without his best stuff. But all the tools are still intact for a great run if he can harness his talent.

9. Mark Prior, Chicago Cubs: It’s always risky business putting a rookie in this kind of list, but Prior looks to be the real deal — a power pitcher with compact, Seaver/Clemens-like mechanics who knows how to pitch and has demonstrated the ability to win and hold leads. Prior also has learned how to be economical in his pitching, a lesson that doesn’t take with most pitchers until they hit their 30s. If the Cubs do a better job of controlling his pitch counts and his learning curve continues to be a fast-track affair, the sky’s the limit for this guy.

10. Bartolo Colon, Chicago White Sox: Given his jaw-dropping stuff, Colon looked a few years back like the pitcher with the best chance to get to 200. But his lack of focus and concentration has been noticeable when he doesn’t have his best stuff, and his mediocre record this season is inexplicable given the offensive talent around him. Finally, there’s the alarming spread in Colon’s waist line, which makes him look more like a human bowling ball than a power pitcher. He could still go on a great run that could carry him to 200, but he has yet to show that he can be a consistent winner and a dominant No. 1 starter on a year-to-year basis.

Bob McCullough writes regularly for NBCSports.com.