Chris O'meara / AP

Past winners of The Players Championship Tiger Woods (left) and Phil Mickelson will have to master the tricky TPC Sawgrass course to set up a weekend showdown.

OPINION

By Rob Bolton

updated 12:27 p.m. ET May 6, 2009

For once, chatter over THE PLAYERS as the fifth major is minimal. And I'm glad. Unfortunately, chatter over Tiger Woods' vulnerability as the statistical world's No. 1 golfer has replaced it. Let's just get to the tournament itself, shall we?

This really starts with the role of Quail Hollow. If Redstone is the primer for Augusta National, you could successfully argue that last week's set-up was a warm lead for TPC Sawgrass. Long track. Tree-lined fairways. Two-and-a-half inches of rough. Stimpmeter of 11.5-12.0. Emphasis on GIR and putting.

Theoretically, those that put four rounds together in Charlotte should be the favorites.

Then there's the comparison you can make between The Green Mile at Quail Hollow and the 16th, 17th and 18th holes at Sawgrass. Both are gut-wrenching, and I wonder which stretch the touring pros would prefer if they had a one-shot lead to protect. Quail Hollow's finishing run rewards par, while the 5-3-4 ending in Florida widens the spectrum of possibilities considerably. We've seen a few examples of that in recent years, haven't we?

Save for a cloudburst or two, the weather is going to cooperate all week, so expect fast fairways and greens by Sunday or the kind of conditions on which only those in tip-top form will capitalize. Because of it, I don't have too many surprises, but I have reprised the old "Drop Area" section, now called "Hazard," which spotlights those projected to fall well below expectations. After last week's modified format, its return was the general response/request. Consider it back in the rotation.

Enjoy the tournament. And no matter what, don't forget about Mother's Day Weekend.

Scorecard

THE PLAYERS
May 7-10
Tournament No. 20 of 46
TPC Sawgrass [Ponte Vedra Beach, FL]
Par 36-36=72 – 7,215 yards
Years hosted – 1982-present
Purse: $9,500,000 (Winner-$1,710,000)
Field size: 145
Cut: Top 70 & ties after 36 holes (if >78 golfers are tied, another cut of Top 70 & ties will occur after 54 holes)

The Elements
SKY: Once the slight chance of overnight rain exits (very) early Thursday, it should be dry and sunny for the duration of the tournament; however, never discount the pop-up storms that can erupt in the afternoon heating
WIND: Very typical, with manageable breezes early and 15-20 mph winds in the p.m.
TEMP: Upper 80s throughout

2008 – Course Scoring Averages (Weather)
Round 1 – 73.716 (SKY: partly cloudy ... WIND: S/SW 10-15 mph, gusts to 23 mph ... TEMP: upper 80s)
Round 2 – 74.478 (SKY: partly cloudy ... WIND: SW 15-20 mph, gusts to 35 mph ... TEMP: 90)
Round 3 – 74.122 (SKY: partly cloudy ... WIND: W 10-15 mph, gusts to 25 mph ... TEMP: 92)
Round 4 – 75.176 – highest final round on PGA Tour in 2008 (SKY: overcast ... WIND: W/SW 20-25 mph, gusts to 40 mph ... TEMP: upper 90)

In defense
Sergio Garcia: It's hard to believe that he's ranked third in the world, isn't it? Garcia hasn't had a top-10 finish since the Qatar Masters. Moreover, he has just one top 30 on the PGA Tour this year (T-11, Honda). For a ball-striker like Garcia, the missed cut at Quail Hollow is appalling. I can't wait to hear what he says in his pressers this week.
Projection: 26+

Championship flight
Kenny Perry: On ball-striking alone, he's in the top 5 this week, but Perry should get his non-major major. He was the 36-hole leader a year ago and was one shot back after 54 before blowing up for a Sunday, wind-aided 81 to tie for 15th. Perry finished well back in New Orleans two weeks ago but healed bleeding wounds from the Masters, which are scars now. If you're attending the event, park it behind the 16th tee box just once when he takes aim. Talk about a sightline built for him. His mettle will be tested this week, but whose won't?
Projection: WIN

Phil Mickelson: Although he's downplayed it (as have I), this is Lefty's best chance to catch Woods in the world ranking. And it seems like eons ago that he was off to his worst start to a season. Can those two replay some of that magic to which we were treated on Sunday at Augusta National?
Projection: Top 5

Slideshow   The Players Championship Take a look at the history and records of golf's "Fifth Major." NBCSports.com

Sean O'Hair: Gotta love the Quail Hollow champ this week. Others would be vulnerable to a letdown, but O'Hair went out and won it despite two bogeys to close out his week, which suggests a continuation, not an exhalation. Of course, there are demons at Sawgrass, but he exorcised those (or at least ignored them) in last year's missed cut. He knows he's hitting it wonderfully, and there's zero reason to believe it won't continue. Really.
Projection: Top 10

Geoff Ogilvy: I don't want to be the bad guy, but Ogilvy, who has lifted two trophies this year, has yet to post a top 5 in a full-field, stroke-play event on the PGA Tour since last year's Houston Open. That speaks more to his inconsistency despite his stud status than it does his ability to close when given the opportunity. And in his last four showings at Sawgrass, he's cashed just once (T-37, 2007).
Projection: 26+

Brian Gay: Gay needs to put the blinders back on and throw it into sixth gear again. He never has finished inside the top 30 at this event, and because the field is the deepest on tour (much less compared to the Heritage), he won't break into the top 10.
Projection: Top 25

Bubba Watson: Talk about dialed in. At Quail Hollow, Watson led the field in driving distance (surprise!) and GIR (surprise!). He was also 15th in putting and finished with 21 birdies, just one fewer than tournament leader Jason Dufner. Yet, Watson is 0-for-2 at Sawgrass and has zero experience here with Sunday pins and needles.
Projection: 26+

Lucas Glover: It was a curious week for him at Quail Hollow, where he carded just five bogeys (nothing worse) despite finishing tied for 60th in GIR. Leading the field in fewest putts struck and most pars made, it was the epitome of grinding out a paycheck, except that he finished one shot back of Sean O'Hair. So the question becomes what you do with that on top of the fact that he's missed the cut in all three starts at THE PLAYERS. Since it boils down to making putts, I'll hedge.
Projection: 26+

David Toms: With four top-six finishes already this year, he's been close, and it's official that the old Toms is back. This is why he's a huge sleeper this week after failing to crack the top 30 in any of the last six years at Sawgrass. In fact, he has just three top 30s (and no top 10s) in 16 career starts at this event.
Projection: Top 10

Rory McIlroy: Chalk up the tie for 58th at Harbour Town to fatigue. Nothing but that seems to faze McIlroy, who turned 20 on Monday.
Projection: Top 25