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Derby winner doesn’t look like Triple threat

Mine That Bird won't benefit from good pace, wet track like at Churchill

Unless the sprinters go crazy and set a suicidal pace at Pimlico, Mine That Bird will be at a big disadvantage if he drops anywhere near as far back as he did Saturday.

And don’t expect the other riders to leave even a few inches open along the rail for Borel to squeeze through. That means Mine That Bird will have to make his move outside, which will cost him several lengths.

Then there’s the matter of the sloppy Churchill Downs track. Mine That Bird appears to be what handicappers call a “mud freak,” meaning he moves up when the rains come down. Although it’s possible he could duplicate that explosive run on a fast track, I want to see him do it first.

And if Mine That Bird makes it past the Preakness, he will face some fresh horses with solid distance pedigrees, possibly including Chocolate Candy, Desert Party and Summer Bird, at the testing 1 ½-mile distance, the longest of the three races. Although the Derby winner is bred to run that far, his opponents will be better rested and would hold a considerable advantage.

Mine That Bird’s small size — about 15 hands, according to his trainer — won’t help, as he might find himself being pushed around by his bigger adversaries in the two races.

The final argument is supplied by Calvin Borel, who doesn’t consider Mine That Bird the equal of Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra. And he’s in a pretty good position to judge, having ridden each to victory on successive days.

Asked after the Derby if he’d pick Rachel Alexandra or Mine That Bird if they were in the same race, the jockey didn’t hesitate. “Oh, I’d ride her. Like I told you, I think she’s the best horse I’ve ever ridden.”

Rachel Alexandra is unlikely to race against the boys in either the Preakness or Belmont, but Borel’s comment suggests that he doesn’t think he was sitting on the next Triple Crown winner in the Derby.

Rather, it appears he sees Mine That Bird’s victory for what it was: A magical moment when a series of unique factors aligned to produce one of the most memorable Derby victories of all time.

I think we’ll have to be satisfied with that.

© 2012 NBC Sports.com  Reprints


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