Unless the sprinters go crazy and set a suicidal pace at Pimlico, Mine That Bird will be at a big disadvantage if he drops anywhere near as far back as he did Saturday.

And don’t expect the other riders to leave even a few inches open along the rail for Borel to squeeze through. That means Mine That Bird will have to make his move outside, which will cost him several lengths.

Then there’s the matter of the sloppy Churchill Downs track. Mine That Bird appears to be what handicappers call a “mud freak,” meaning he moves up when the rains come down. Although it’s possible he could duplicate that explosive run on a fast track, I want to see him do it first.

And if Mine That Bird makes it past the Preakness, he will face some fresh horses with solid distance pedigrees, possibly including Chocolate Candy, Desert Party and Summer Bird, at the testing 1 ½-mile distance, the longest of the three races. Although the Derby winner is bred to run that far, his opponents will be better rested and would hold a considerable advantage.

Mine That Bird’s small size — about 15 hands, according to his trainer — won’t help, as he might find himself being pushed around by his bigger adversaries in the two races.

The final argument is supplied by Calvin Borel, who doesn’t consider Mine That Bird the equal of Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra. And he’s in a pretty good position to judge, having ridden each to victory on successive days.

Asked after the Derby if he’d pick Rachel Alexandra or Mine That Bird if they were in the same race, the jockey didn’t hesitate. “Oh, I’d ride her. Like I told you, I think she’s the best horse I’ve ever ridden.”

Rachel Alexandra is unlikely to race against the boys in either the Preakness or Belmont, but Borel’s comment suggests that he doesn’t think he was sitting on the next Triple Crown winner in the Derby.

Rather, it appears he sees Mine That Bird’s victory for what it was: A magical moment when a series of unique factors aligned to produce one of the most memorable Derby victories of all time.

I think we’ll have to be satisfied with that.

More news

NBC Sports

First Triple Crown in 34 years?

  HRTV's Laffit Pincay and Joel Siegel talk about the chances for "I'll Have Another" to in the Belmont Stakes on June 9.

Mike Stewart / AP

Chasing the Crown

  Slideshow: I'll Have Another one win away from becoming the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Headlines

• Label

First Triple Crown in 34 years?

Chasing the Crown

TCI: Preakness recap and Belmont preview

11 have tried ... and 11 have failed

Trainer O'Neill suspended by Calif. racing board

I'll Have Another posts 'fantastic' gallop

Atigun, Unstoppable U probable for Belmont

44-1 shot Wilkinson wins American Handicap

Judge allows suspended jockey back in saddle

Bryant and Gasol's horse to run at Hollywood Park

Romans hopes Dullahan spoils Triple Crown bid

Analysis: I'll Have Another has a decent shot