Mike Brunker Horse racing editor • Profile • E-mail

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Kentucky Derby often inflicts a particularly cruel kind of agony, plunging the handicapper into a strange world where reason evaporates and opinions melt like Dali’s watches.

But on rare occasions, a feeling of clarity and confidence takes hold, and suddenly you’re certain that you know which horse will win the race. That feeling may be misguided, but it sure feels good while it has you in its thrall.

I should know. I’ve been in that state since Feb. 7, when I saw Pioneerof the Nile capture the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. I knew then that he would be my pick to win the 135th Run for the Roses on Saturday.

The Bob Baffert-trained colt is no cinch to capture the race, which is well deserving of its reputation as America’s toughest handicapping puzzle. But I think he has the talent to win if his competitive nature doesn’t get the better of him (more on that later).

He also figures to be a decent price, maybe slightly higher than his 4-1 morning line odds, since many handicappers will shy away from backing a horse that has never raced on the dirt. (All of Pioneerof the Nile’s eight lifetime starts have come on either the turf or on synthetic racing surfaces.)

It’s risky to back a horse to do something he’s never done, but in this case I think Pioneerof the Nile has enough positives on his ledger to make the equation pencil out.

The premier plus is that the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Pioneerof the Nile’s first outing as a 3-year-old, has turned out to be what handicappers refer to as a “key race,” or one in which multiple horses come back to win their next starts.

In this case, Pioneerof the Nile returned to win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 14 and then the Santa Anita Derby on April 4 for his owner, Zayat Stables; Lewis runner-up Papa Clem came back to run second in the Louisiana Derby on March 14, then won the Arkansas Derby on April 11.

In other words, the top three finishers in the Lewis accounted for five graded stakes races victories in the next two months.

In addition to winning a key race, Pioneerof the Nile showed a sudden burst of speed in the Lewis Stakes that I love to see in a Derby horse. He relaxed near the back of the pack in the early stages under jockey Garrett Gomez, began a long sweeping move entering the stretch, then really accelerated in the final stages of the 1 1/16 mile race to get up and win by a half-length over Papa Clem.

That ability to quicken when other horses are tiring should stand him in particularly good stead in the marathon distance of the 1 ¼-mile Derby.

His breeding also suggests the distance should be right up his alley, as his sire Empire Maker won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes — the longest of the Triple Crown races — in 2003, denying Funny Cide the Triple Crown.

I have barely mentioned Pioneerof the Nile’s human connections, but they add to my sense of confidence.

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Baffert is a three-time Derby winner who was voted into the National Museum of Racing’s Hall of Fame on April 20, in large part because of his exploits on the first Saturday in May.

And Gomez, known as “Go Go” to his fans, is likely a future Hall of Famer, based on his back-to-back Eclipse Awards as the nation’s top jockey. He’s also been the leading North American money earner for three years running, last year guiding his mounts to $23,344,351 in earnings.

The biggest fear factor for me is Pioneerof the Nile’s headstrong, competitive nature. While that’s a good thing when it comes to dueling an opponent into submission in the stretch, it’s not an attribute when it results in a horse fighting his jockey.