Vic Zast

At least seven horses in the projected Kentucky Derby field of 20 finished no better than third in their latest start.  And, if past is prologue, they might as well stay put in their barns. 

Since 1996, only Giacomo in 2005 at 50-1 — the second longest Derby payoff in history — has worn the roses without winning or placing in his final prep.  Only nine Derby winners in the last 50 years have finished out of the exacta in their final preps, and six of those have recorded thirds. Giacomo was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.

It makes sense that being in top form is prerequisite for the sport’s toughest race.  No 3-year-old should be asked to negotiate 10 furlongs in early spring without proper seasoning. Yet, recent history suggests that being not quite at your very best in your final race before the Derby is even better than being last-out spectacular.

“You want to get a good race, but you don’t have to win,” said Hall of Fame trainer Carl Nafzger, who saddled Derby winners Street Sense in 2007 and Unbridled in 1990, two runners that stumbled a bit in their auditions.  “Prepping horses for big races is like setting a screw in a piece of furniture. If you put the screw in too far, you leave a blemish. If you don’t put it in far enough, you could tear your clothes on it. To be beautiful, it has to be smooth with the wood.”

In the last 15 years, seven horses that ran second in their last pre-Derby outing finished first in the Run for the Roses, compared to six winners who won their final prep.

Five to watch
That statistic alone suggests it would be a good idea to pay special attention to these five horses in this year’s 135^th running of the Derby, all of which finished second in their most recent races: Dunkirk, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, West Side Bernie and Chocolate Candy.

Dunkirk is the born-with-a-silver-spoon-in-his-mouth thoroughbred that represents trainer Todd Pletcher’s best hope for a breakthrough after futilely saddling 21 Kentucky Derby starters. Old wives’ tales abound that the absence of the $3.7 million son of Unbridled’s Song from 2-year-old racing portends unreadiness. But when horsemen replay his sweeping run on a lightning-fast Gulfstream Park strip in the Florida Derby — his lone try at stakes competition — they’re very impressed, even awestruck.

Gulfstream track records fell like coconuts from palm trees on Florida Derby Day and, despite Dunkirk’s monster rally, Quality Road got to the wire before him on the tricked-up highway. 

The normally even-keeled Pletcher complained afterward, “If I’d known the track was going to be like this, I’d have gone to Aqueduct,” indicating that the Wood Memorial might have given his colt a fairer chance at staying undefeated.

The Churchill Downs track will also be fast on Derby day, but Dunkirk, working brilliantly at Palm Meadows – Gulfstream’s training facility, will be expertly prepared for it.

Desert Party was similarly deterred by a speed-favoring track in his last attempt. The son of Street Cry had less than a camel’s trip in the U.A.E. Derby in falling to Regal Ransom in March. But he beat his younger conqueror with apparent ease on two earlier occasions this winter and there’s no reason to project that he couldn’t triplicate his success. “He is already more like a 4-year-old and he will only get better,” Godolphin’s trainer Saeed bin Suroor said earlier this spring at Nad Al Sheba. 

Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s duo are both gifted runners.  But Desert Party has the easy disposition to cross oceans and race well. Twelve pounds below Midshipman and 10 pounds below Vineyard Haven on the Experimental Free Handicap, Desert Party adapted to Dubai with greater ease than three other horses the sheik shipped there from America for the winter. When asked what it would take for a desert-based horse to win in the  commonwealth, Simon Crisford, who is in charge of the sheik’s racing program, said, “He has to handle the occasion, and this horse shows that he can.”

Hold Me Back’s keen Lane’s End victory followed by a super-fast finish in the Blue Grass Stakes represents only the obvious reason to bet him.  The less obvious reason is that he has the look of an improving colt, the pedigree of a legitimate router and two back-to-back finishes that were lights out by the count of the tele-timer. According to Dick Downey of TheDowneyProfile.com, Hold Me Back ran the last three furlongs at Turfway in :36.08 and at Keeneland in :35.97. 

Immaturity, not a lack of ability
WinStar Farm, the outfit that bred and owns Hold Me Back, excuses the colt’s lone try on dirt in November — a disappointing fifth in Aqueduct’s telltale Remsen Stakes — as merely a case of immaturity.  Bill Mott, who trains the son of Giant’s Causeway, said after mid-April’s Blue Grass, “Maybe this wasn’t his best race, and maybe it doesn’t need to be, so I think we’ve got to look at the upside.”  Hmm, upside?  Does that sound reminiscent of Monarchos?

The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Chocolate Candy is a very good horse with four wins in eight starts on the kitty-litter tracks in California.  But in all of those tries, the Candy Ride colt hasn’t conquered the best of the West, meaning Pioneerof the Nile or I Want Revenge, and would be more of a surprise than Dunkirk, Desert Party or Hold Me Back.  Likewise, West Side Bernie, the sleeper pick of wise guys, is eligible after eight starts for a non-winners-of-two allowance race, and that’s not a Classic resume.  Nevertheless, each is as plausible a selection as Advice, Papa Clem and Musket Man – all final prep winners.

No horse enters the 135^th Derby without cause for concern.  If all worries — I Want Revenge’s California form, Pioneerof the Nile’s ability to handle dirt, Friesan Fire’s seven-week layoff, for example — prove baseless, this year’s champion should emerge from the eight last-out winners: Advice, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man or Regal Ransom.

On the other hand, at a stage in the preparations when knocking on the door can signify more than blowing the door down, Dunkirk, Desert Party and Hold Me Back fit the description of screws set in wood beautifully.

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