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Can't lift Cup? Relax, you could land Tavares

Among lottery-bound teams, Lightning, Avs likely best fit for prized center

Kevin Dupont
For some NHL teams, like the Islanders, Avalanche and Lightning, the final days of the 2008-09 season don't do much to capture the imagination. As March drew to a close, those three clubs had averaged slightly less than 27 wins, leaving them decidedly far right of relevant, never mind far removed from the 2009 Stanley Cup playoff picture.

But then again, there is John Tavares.

Only 18 years old, and pegged to be the game's next superstar, the Ontario-raised Tavares is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the NHL's entry draft on June 26 in Montreal.

None of this is a sure thing, of course. We don't know who will pick first. We don't know if Tavares will go No. 1. We also don't know if the clever center from the Ontario League's London Knights (via Oshawa Generals) will be the be-all-and-end-all franchise centerpiece who will guarantee one of the Original 30's sorry franchises a fast-lane pass to glory.

Eric Lindros (No. 1 in 1991) was going to do that for Quebec. But Lindros (L'Enfant Terrible) never pulled on the Noridques sweater. He also never got his name on a Stanley Cup — be it with the Flyers, Rangers, Maple Leafs or Stars. Concussions and other miscellaneous injuries cut short his career.

Alexandre Daigle (No. 1 in 1993) was going to do that for Ottawa. He became a decent player, but not until he took his game to Europe. He never had the heart or overall application to make it in the NHL.

Joe Thornton (No. 1 in 1997) was another of the ''Next One(s)'', brought to Boston to save the Bruins. Early in his eighth season in Boston, where the Bruins won only one playoff round during his time as the club's cornerstone, Thornton was dished to San Jose. Jumbo Joe always came up slightly short in the Hub of Hockey.

However, it appears the 6-foot, 198-pound Tavares, who was raised in Oakville, just outside of Toronto, could be that legitimate impact player who truly lives up to expectations. It happens. See: Alexander Ovechkin in Washington (No. 1, 2004) and Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh (No. 1, 2005). Which is to say that it's not always hype. Both Ovechkin and Crosby have proven to be sensational players, cornerstones of their respective clubs and tremendous marketing assets for the league at large.

We won't know where Tavares is likely to go until April 14, when the league stages its annual lottery for the 14 teams that fail to qualify for this season's playoffs. It's a weighted lottery, with the club with the worst regular-season record having the greatest chance by far of being chosen to go No. 1. No club can move up more than four slots in the lottery, which also means only the five teams with the worst records are eligible to end up with the No. 1 pick.

[Note: according to the Surgeon General, to provide greater detail about the intricacies and machinations of the NHL lottery has been known to trigger sudden-onset statistical schizophrenia. Since we all get enough of that from the stock market, let's move on here. If you experience the inability to add two-plus-two for longer than four hours, please consult a physician.]

If the lottery winner doesn't select Tavares, then look for Swedish standout Victor Hedman to be taken No. 1. Hedman is a defenseman and therefore doesn't have Tavares' gaudy offensive numbers (he scored 72 goals as a 16-year-old in the OHL, breaking Wayne Gretzky's record). But Hedman is 6-foot-5, weighs 212 pounds, and he's often surly. Tavares is the crown jewel of the draft, but Hedman could prove to be the hidden diamond, a big body with skating skill and a mean streak.

If Tavares ends up being selected by the Islanders or Avs, or perhaps the Lightning, Thrashers or Coyotes, it could be some time before he really makes an impact. He has the skill to produce right from the start, and he has a history of turning his linemates into better players. All that plays in his favor.

But the Islanders, who used the No. 1 pick in 2000 to select goalie Rick DiPietro, are especially thin on talent. It's hard to get lost in New York, even only some 25 miles from Times Square, but it could happen to Tavares on Long Island.

The same for the Avs, who likely will bid adieu to Joe Sakic this summer. But at least in Denver Tavares would be joined by Paul Stastny, another elite center, who is only 23 years old. Stastny is already in residence as Denver's franchise cornerstone, which would ease some of the pressure to produce that Tavares inevitably will feel wherever he lands.

Tampa? Vincent Lecavalier, dubbed the NHL's Michael Jordan by the Bolts owner when he was selected No. 1 in 1998, could help Tavares make the transition to the pro game. Although, rumors still persist that the Bolts will deal Lecavalier over the summer, prior to his 11-year, $85 million deal kicking in. All of which could leave Tavares and Steve Stamkos, selected No. 1 in last year's draft, left standing as the Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (both stars as teenagers in Chicago) of Tampa Bay. Based on what's happening in Chicago right now, that might not be such a bad thing.

Lecavalier and Mike Modano (No. 1, Minnesota, 1988), by the way, are the only No. 1 picks in the last 20 years to win the Stanley Cup. Lecavalier got it done with the Bolts in '04 and Modano with the Stars in '99, a half-dozen years after the franchise relocated in Dallas.

Atlanta and Phoenix both would present Tavares with severe challenges in terms of making those around him better. Their rosters are extremely thin on talent. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman insists that none of his franchises is on the move, but rumors persist that both the Thrashers and Coyotes could be parked in other cities in the near future. Certainly their records make them look, shall we say, portable.


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