FALLING:

Tampa Bay Rays
2008 wins: 97
Predicted 2009 wins: 87

A Cinderella season for the Rays won’t repeat itself, mainly because  both of Tampa Bay’s chief AL East rivals – the Red Sox and Yankees – have improved over the offseason. B.J. Upton, who patrols center field, will start the season on the disabled list as he completes his comeback from shoulder surgery.

Pat Burrell switches leagues, and becomes the new DH. Can veteran closer Troy Percival regain his form after back surgery?

Los Angeles Angels
2008 wins: 100
Predicted 2009 wins: 91

Don’t look for the Angels to win their division by 21 games like they did last season, especially since Francisco Rodriguez, Garret Anderson, Mark Teixeira, and Jon Garland are all gone.

The Angels were supposed to have a strong starting staff — that was until injuries hit. Ace John Lackey is expected to open the season on the disabled list after an MRI test revealed inflammation in his throwing elbow. Ervin Santana looks like he will miss most of April because of a sprained elbow ligament. Kelvim Escobar is recovering from shoulder surgery, and even though he is ahead of schedule, he won't return until late April at the earliest.

Milwaukee Brewers
2008 wins: 90
Predicted 2009 wins: 81

The god of the offseason sent a mean 1-2 punch the Brewers way as they lost their top two starters: CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Add to that, word the team’s new closer, Trevor Hoffman, continues to make only slight progress with an oblique strain (there's a very real chance he will open the season on the disabled list), and Milwaukee has pitching issues.

The starting rotation is paper-thin, and basically the entire bullpen is made up of new faces, who must prove themselves stable. What Milwaukee does have going for it is a potent offense that has remained virtually intact from last season.

Chicago Cubs
2008 wins: 97
Predicted 2009 wins: 90

The Cubs might very well end up missing Mark DeRosa, a versatile player who hit a career-best 21 home runs and had 87 runs batted in last season. They did add some offense in Milton Bradley, and some pitching, most notably in Kevin Gregg, and Aaron Heilman.

This is a team with some baggage since for the last two seasons it’s been swept in the first-round of the playoffs. The Cubs still have one of the NL’s best rotations, but Gregg will have to prove a reliable replacement for Kerry Wood as the closer.

Florida Marlins 
2008 wins: 84
Predicted 2009 wins: 78

Too many question marks surround Florida after another winter of cost-cutting. That’s left manager Fredi Gonzalez to pin his hopes of a winning season on a talented group of young players. What else is new with this franchise?

Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham are gone, but Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu remain, and there is hope that in center field rookie Cameron Maybin can have a big year. Florida will need offense to support its promising young rotation. 

Houston Astros  
2008 wins: 86
Predicted 2009 wins: 81

Roy Oswalt is a great ace, but behind him the rotation is shaky at best. The Astros brought back Mike Hampton, who in 1999 was 22-4 for them. But that was 1999, and in the years that have followed, Hampton has become a medical marvel for all the wrong reasons. It seems his next injury is just around the corner.

Houston did address a need at catcher by signing 13-time Gold Glover Ivan Rodriguez. The Astros have sluggers Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman, who helped them make a push at the playoffs last season with Houston posting the best second-half record in the NL. But it may be they spend the better part of this season playing .500 baseball.

Texas Rangers
2008 wins: 79
Predicted 2009 wins: 75

The Rangers are still a work in progress as they are building from within through a minor league system that might be the best in baseball. Michael Young moves to third base from shortstop to make room for 20-year-old Elvis Andrus, who attempts to make the jump from Double-A.

Josh Hamilton is a rising superstar, but having lost Milton Bradley as his lineup protection, can he be as superbly productive as last season, when he hit 32 home runs and had 130 runs batted in?

Colorado Rockies    
2008 wins: 74
Predicted 2009 wins: 70

Colorado fans are bemoaning the loss of three key players from last season: Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, and Brian Fuentes. Given those departures, it would be wise for the Rockies’ faithful to figure this is not a year the team will contend in its division. The Rockies primary goal will be to play .500 baseball.

Those on the spot for the Rockies include Huston Street, who becomes the team’s new closer. Also, Ryan Spilborghs, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, Chris Iannetta, and Clint Barmes have to produce offensively.

Chicago White Sox
2008 wins: 88
Predicted 2009 wins: 85

General manager Kenny Williams cut the cord with some key players to lessen the payroll, and losing Javier Vazquez and Joe Crede should hurt.

Can Josh Fields put up the numbers Crede did at third base? And can Brian Anderson hit enough to at least platoon in center field with either DeWayne Wise or Jerry Owens?

Minnesota Twins
2008 wins: 88
Predicted 2009 wins: 85

Joe Mauer’s ailing back is a great cause for concern. New anti-inflammatory medication is making it feel better, but there still is no time frame for when he'll be able to start taking batting practice, and he definitely will miss opening day.

The bullpen is questionable, and the starters are very inexperienced. Francisco Liriano, who missed the entire 2007 season after Tommy John surgery, is a ticking time bomb to get injured again.

San Diego Padres 
2008 wins: 63
Predicted 2009 wins: 60

I see the Padres as the only club in the big leagues that will lose over 100 games this season. To me, the ace of the rotation, Jake Peavy, has a body that is very suspect to injury. In 2008 Peavy dealt with elbow injuries. In 2006, it was shoulder issues, same goes for 2005, and in 2004, a forearm was the problem.

The Padres have new ownership, which should be a positive going forward. But for this season, it’ll be a long summer, and no one can fault Padres’ fans if they grow weary of how their team performs.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2008 wins: 67
Predicted 2009 wins: 65

Look for the Pirates to post their record-breaking 17th consecutive losing season. Their payroll remains the lowest in the majors, and in the offseason they failed to land any player who could really help them.

Pittsburgh’s best bet is to bank on that by 2010 some of the talented draft picks of the recent past make it to the majors, and make an impact. Until then the thickening of disappointment is likely to increase for fans of the Bucs.

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