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Teams on the rise, and those falling

How many more – or fewer – wins teams will have over last season

Image: Jeff Francoeur Reuters
For Atlanta to make a significant jump in wins, Jeff Francoeur must have a much better season than he did last year, writes Bert Blyleven of NBCSports.com.

EXPECT THE SAME:

Boston Red Sox
2008 wins: 95
Predicted 2009 wins: 95

New additions Brad Penny and John Smoltz must prove healthy enough to help the pitching staff. And Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew have to stay injury free.

Shortstop Julio Lugo underwent surgery March 17 to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, leaving Jed Lowrie as the starter until he returns.

Philadelphia Phillies
2008 wins: 92
Predicted 2009 wins: 92   

The Phillies have to be concerned over the ace of their rotation, Cole Hamels, who has experienced some elbow tightness this spring. Hamels received an anti-inflammatory shot in his arm on March 17, but he probably still won’t be ready for the season opener.

Pat Burrell’s gone, but he’ll be replaced in left field by the one major addition the Phillies made in the offseason, Raul Ibanez, who signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract.

Toronto Blue Jays
2008 wins: 86
Predicted 2009 wins: 86

Cito Gaston is back for a second tenure as manager, and that’s a positive. After Roy Halladay, the rotation has some major question marks.

A strength is a very good bullpen that remains intact from last season, but if the starters go to tatters, these relievers are going to get worn down to where they become a liability and not an asset.

Oakland Athletics 
2008 wins: 75
Predicted 2009 wins: 75

In an attempt to overtake the Angels, the A’s had a busy offseason, trading for Matt Holliday, and signing free agents Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera. Eric Chavez is coming off a shoulder injury, and it’s not certain he’ll be ready for opening night, but if he regains his health, that’s a big plus for the A’s.  

While the offense has been upgraded, the starting pitching was dealt a blow when Justin Duchscherer, the lone veteran in a young rotation, found out he needs exploratory surgery on his right elbow. The surgery is expected to keep him out a minimum of six to eight weeks even if no significant damage is found.

Bert Blyleven writes regularly for NBCSports.com, and is a former two-time All-Star who won 287 games during his 22 seasons in the major leagues. He is currently a broadcaster for the Minnesota Twins.


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