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Teams on the rise, and those falling

How many more – or fewer – wins teams will have over last season

Image: Jeff Francoeur Reuters
For Atlanta to make a significant jump in wins, Jeff Francoeur must have a much better season than he did last year, writes Bert Blyleven of NBCSports.com.

MLB 9-11-06: Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Bert Blyleven

Time to look into my crystal ball, and tell fans the ups and downs of the coming season — in terms of team winning totals compared to 2008.

RISING:

New York Yankees
2008 wins: 89
Predicted 2009 wins: 97

The Yankees’ starting rotation, bolstered by free-agent signees, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, will carry them to the division title, and back into the playoffs.

Moving Joba Chamberlain into the rotation could result in his having arm problems down the line. And if the Yankees bullpen can’t get games to closer Mariano Rivera, look for Chamberlain to go back to his set-up role.

New York Mets  
2008 wins: 89
Predicted 2009 wins: 95

The additions of Francisco Rodriguez as the closer, and J.J. Putz as the set-up man, will push the Mets past the Phillies and give them the NL East crown. Don’t expect a repeat of last season when the Mets’ bullpen had 29 blown saves in 72 chances.

Offensively, the Mets need productive years from Ryan Church, who never was right last season after two concussions, and Luis Castillo, who slumped badly, had a poor season, and raised the question of whether he has anything left.   

Cleveland Indians
2008 wins: 81
Predicted 2009 wins: 90

They made two key additions in Mark DeRosa, who’ll take over for Casey Blake at third base, and closer Kerry Wood. The Indians have some good set-up arms while in the rotation they really need Fausto Carmona to bounce back from a hip injury, and be the pitcher he was in 2007 when he went 19-8.

Injuries hit the Indians hard last season, but once some of those who were hurt got back healthy, they helped Cleveland go 44-28 after July 10. But for the Indians to play that caliber of winning baseball this season, Travis Hafner must show he is over his shoulder woes, which limited him to 57 games a year ago.

St. Louis Cardinals  
2008 wins: 86
Predicted 2009 wins: 90

Chris Carpenter, who has missed most of the last two seasons with arm trouble, is having an excellent spring. His manager, Tony La Russa, says everything is working for Carpenter, and that’s a message the team wasn’t counting on hearing.   

The Cardinals can hit with the big bats of Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, and Rick Ankiel leading the way. A key will be holding their own until third baseman Troy Glaus makes a return from January shoulder surgery.

Atlanta Braves
2008 wins: 72
Predicted 2009 wins: 88

The Braves made overhauling their rotation a priority. And in Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, they added two starters who can combine to pitch over 400 innings. They also brought in Kenshin Kawakami, a former Japanese Central League MVP, who went 112-72 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 seasons.

Two key bats will be those of Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson. Francoeur needs to bounce back from hitting just .239 with 11 home runs. Anderson would prove a great asset if he repeated his numbers from last season with the Angels: 15 home runs, 84 runs batted in, and a .293 batting average.

Los Angeles Dodgers  
2008 wins: 84
Predicted 2009 wins: 87

The NL West appears the weakest division in the majors. The Dodgers, with Manny Ramirez back in the fold, should again win it. The presence of Ramirez translates into better numbers for the team’s other key offensive players: Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson, Andre Ethier, James Loney, and Russell Martin.

Much to their concern, the Dodgers lost Derek Lowe and Brad Penny from their rotation. And Chad Billingsley has yet to cement himself as the ace of the staff. In short, the starting staff is suspect. And Jonathan Broxton must prove he can close games at a better rate than he did last year, when he earned saves in 14 of 22 chances.

Arizona Diamondbacks   
2008 wins: 82
Predicted 2009 wins: 85

Arizona has a very solid starting staff. Not many hitters have the ability to interrupt the winning ways of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, who are at the top of the rotation. The offseason addition of Jon Garland from the White Sox could make the Big Two into a Big Three.  in the bullpen, Chad Qualls must prove he can close.

Offensively, the keys are Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton. Jackson will be looking for another strong season while Drew hopes he at least puts up his numbers from a year ago: .291 batting average, 21 home runs, 67 runs batted in, 44 doubles, and 11 triples.

Kansas City Royals
2008 wins: 75
Predicted 2009 wins: 81

Some key new faces should boost the Royals to play .500 baseball. Coco Crisp will hit leadoff and play center field. Mike Jacobs comes aboard to provide left-handed pop, and will play first base and DH. Kyle Farnsworth gets a shot at being the set-up man for outstanding closer Joakim Soria.

Headed by Gil Meche and Zack Greinke, the Royals could have their strongest rotation in more than a decade. Kyle Davies closed strong last season, posting impressive September numbers (2.27 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP). The Royals have reasons to be looking for a lot from Davies this season, but he still must go out on the hill and get it done.

Detroit Tigers 
2008 wins: 74
Predicted 2009 wins: 81

A big disappointment last season after being the popular choice to win the pennant. There’s talent in Detroit, to the tune of a payroll of $128 million. The Tigers can score, and their defense got an upgrade with the signing of Adam Everett to play shortstop.

The starting pitching will be pivotal. Justin Verlander needs to rebound from a 11-17 record, and a 4.84 ERA. There’s a question of whether Jeremy Bonderman can be ready for opening day as he recovers from  a shoulder injury that limited him to 12 starts last season. And there’s even a bigger question about a shaky bullpen where Brandon Lyon takes over as the closer, and Joel Zumaya tries to get healthy.

Cincinnati Reds  
2008 wins: 74
Predicted 2009 wins: 78

Manager Dusty Baker could find himself with one of the best rotations in the NL if Aaron Harang comes off a down year (6-17) to accumulate wins like he did in 2006 (16-11), and 2007 (16-6). Two rising young stars, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto, have arms that appear bound for stardom. The Reds also have a solid closer in Francisco Cordero.

The team parted ways with Ken Griffey Jr., and Adam Dunn as it moves to build a contender around a nucleus of young players. A key addition is Willy Taveras, who will play center field, and is a table-setter, who led the majors in steals last season with 68.

San Francisco Giants
2008 wins: 72
Predicted 2009 wins: 78

The successes and failures of the Giants’ starting rotation will go a long way to deciding what kind of season San Francisco turns in. Barring injury, Tim Lincecum could again win the NL Cy Young Award. Randy Johnson’s been added to the staff, and should provide some drama as he — at some point this season — locks up win No. 300. Will Matt Cain finally realize his potential?  Will Barry Zito continue to struggle, and thereby confirm he’s no longer the pitcher he was with the A’s?

The Giants did little in the offseason to bolster an anemic offense. So the collective sigh that might likely be heard from Giants’ fans will be over losing games, 1-0, and 2-1.

Seattle Mariners
2008 wins: 61
Predicted 2009 wins: 78

Expected to challenge for the AL West title last season, Seattle instead endured a brutal season. The Mariners new general manager, Jack Zduriencik, reworked the roster over the winter. Seattle won’t contend, but it also won’t lose 100 games again.

Perhaps the two most critical questions for this team are who will replace J.J. Putz as a the closer, and after Felix Hernandez and a presumably healthy Erik Bedard, who are the other three starters in the rotation?

Baltimore Orioles
2008 wins: 68
Predicted 2009 wins: 70

The Orioles have a lot of young talent mixed in with key veterans. There are question marks over what Baltimore will get from Felix Pie in left field, and Adam Jones in center field. Will Jones become the player most believe he can be?

The starting pitching is thin, and that will put a lot of pressure on the offense. Andy MacPhail is in the second year rebuilding this team, so it’s basically baby steps forward for now.

Washington Nationals  
2008 wins: 59
Predicted 2009 wins: 65

The biggest news made by the Nationals this offseason was the resignation of general manager Jim Bowden, and the firing of special assistant Jose Rijo. Talk about a mess. Oh, and there was also an unsuccessful bid at signing Maryland native Mark Teixeira.

Adam Dunn did sign, and his power is much needed since last season the Nationals’ lineup ranked 28th in home runs. Still, after a measly 59 wins last season, there is nowhere to go but up – even if it’s just a couple of floors.


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