"I think we'll continue to make history down the stretch,” said Pittsburgh forward Sam Young in January after the Panthers rose to the school’s first-ever No. 1 ranking in college basketball.

In the first round of the NCAA tournament, Young almost turned out to be right for the wrong reason. Pittsburgh nearly became the first No. 1 seed in history to lose to a No. 16 seed, East Tennessee State.

On Thursday against Xavier, Young will have another chance to make his prediction come true. Under coach Jamie Dixon, the Panthers have played in six consecutive NCAA tournaments, but have never advanced to the Elite Eight.

Big and strong, the experienced Panthers will defeat the Musketeers — and go on to win a national championship.

Granted, Pittsburgh has struggled of late. In the Big East tournament, the Panthers lost to West Virginia. In the NCAA tournament, after barely overcoming East Tennessee State, Pittsburgh had its hands full with Oklahoma State. Had it not been for Young’s 32 points, the Cowboys would have pulled off the upset.

The Panthers’ combined margin of victory during March Madness is the third-lowest among Sweet 16 schools. Similarly, Pittsburgh’s efficiency margin, the difference between the number of points the Panthers have scored and allowed per possession, is the third-lowest among teams remaining in the NCAA tournament.

Video   Defensive battle March 25: Xavier coach Sean Miller says the Muskateers are a great rebounding team, but those skills will be tested against Pitt. NBC Sports

History suggests, however, that Pittsburgh’s close calls shouldn’t be too great a cause for concern. Last season, top seeds Memphis and UCLA reached the Final Four after nearly losing in the second round. The year prior, top seeds Ohio State and Florida made the Final Four after turning back vigorous second-round challenges.

“Right now we're not (playing on all cylinders),” Pittsburgh point guard Levance Fields said. “We had two tough games, but in both games we found a way to win. This tournament is about surviving and advancing, and we did that.”

Pittsburgh also will survive and advance against Xavier. Why? Because although both teams depend on strong rebounding, the Panthers are more physical and well-rounded than the Musketeers.

Xavier’s Jason Love and Derrick Brown are terrific rebounders, but neither is as strong or as prolific on the glass as Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair. Similarly, the Musketeers’ B.J. Raymond is a talented wing, but he lacks Young’s versatility and offensive repertoire. Most importantly, the Panthers feature a true point guard in Fields, while the Musketeers depend on two-guard Dante Jackson, whose ability to run an offense remains a work in progress.

When the pressure is on, Xavier shuts off. Since February, the Musketeers have lost all four of their games decided by five points or less. Conversely, when the going got tough against Connecticut in the regular season, Pittsburgh got going. It should therefore have come as no surprise that when Oklahoma State turned in an almost flawless first half in the postseason, the Panthers rose to the occasion and matched the Cowboys point for point.

2009 Men's NCAA tournament Quick guide to the teams, players, more

Besides their toughness in the face of adversity, Pittsburgh will also succeed in the Elite Eight and Final Four because of their veteran leadership and resolve.

Senior starters Young, Fields, and Tyrell Biggs know that it is now or never. Blair is only a sophomore, but given the very real possibility that the All-American will declare early for the NBA draft, he too feels the “fierce urgency of now.”

It is also unlikely that Pittsburgh will continue to struggle. Fields has been dogged by injuries, but claims to be back at full strength. Blair was relatively quiet against the Cowboys, but is rarely silent for long. As a team and according to data available at kenpom.com, Pittsburgh is the most consistent club in the Sweet 16.

Many people favor Memphis or Louisville for the title, in part because they believe defense wins championships. Perhaps. But the past four NCAA tournament champions all featured either the nation’s first- or second-most efficient offense. Thanks to Young, Fields, and Blair, the Panthers currently average more points per possession that every team other than North Carolina.

“We can put the ball in the basket,” Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon said. “We're unselfish and we've got balance inside and out.”

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In Dixon, the Panthers have a talented coach who knows how to get the most from his players. Dixon already has won 162 games, more than any other head coach in Division I history in his first six years. At halftime against Oklahoma State, Dixon worked his magic in the locker room.

“(Coach) gave us that spirit, that one talk you always need every game,” Blair said. “We came out and we adjusted to his speech (and) got it done. He's a motivator and he knew how to get his team to win.”

In a Sweet 16 that includes every first, second, and third seed, plenty of teams have the talent to cut down the nets. Why else does Pittsburgh stand out? Careful ball control, effective ball movement, and an ability to draw fouls and score points at the free throw line.

But one of the Panthers’ strengths is also their greatest weakness. All four of the Panthers’ losses occurred when Blair got into foul trouble. Will unnecessary fouls prove Pittsburgh’s NCAA tournament undoing? Not in the short term.

Neither Xavier nor Villanova, Pittsburgh’s possible Elite Eight foes, are particularly adept at getting to the charity stripe. Duke, the Panthers’ other potential fourth-round adversary, is substantially better at drawing fouls, but mostly on the perimeter, where Blair rarely roams.

In a talented field, Pittsburgh is far from a sure bet. But if Blair avoids foul trouble in the Final Four, the Panthers’ rebounding and experience probably will propel Pittsburgh to continue making history by winning a national title.

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