Wilfredo Lee / AP

Golfer Sean O'Hair watches his shot from the second tee during the first round at the CA Championship on March 12, 2009.

Last year, with a Honda-Transitions start, the touring pros were grumbling over the difficulty of a PGA National-Innisbrook (Copperhead) one-two punch to tee off the migration east. Ernie Els triumphed at the Honda with an aggregate 6-under-par, while Sean O'Hair capitalized on Stewart Cink's implosion. This year, Y.E. Yang claimed the Honda at 9-under and Phil Mickelson grabbed the WGC-CA Championship with a score of 19-under, two strokes better than Geoff Ogilvy's winning pace a year ago. Maybe it's the revamped lineup, with Doral moving up into the 2-hole, while the Transitions (3rd) and Arnie's Invite (4th) slide back one week, or maybe it's the course set-ups (I didn't see any rough at Doral, did you?), but expect the back-half fortnight to clench its teeth.

To be certain, weather shared the headlines with Cink's fade a year ago, so while the result was a bit skewed for our long-term projecting, the formula for success at Copperhead remains true. Although O'Hair can kill it, tee ball distance is irrelevant in the big picture this week. Rather, the emphasis is on hitting GIR, with equal parts fairways and putting playing understudy. With the way O'Hair has been striping it this year, he's as smart a start as anyone in the field.

Scorecard - Transitions Championship
March 19-22
Tournament No. 13 of 47
Innisbrook Resort & GC (Copperhead Course - Palm Harbor, FL)
Par 36-35=71 – 7,340 yards
Years hosted – 2000-present
Purse: $5,400,000 (Winner-$972,000)
Field size: 144

The Elements
SKY: Beautiful all week, with only harmless passing clouds peeking in on the action
WIND: A non-factor until Saturday, when scores could soar due to expected wind gusts of up to 25 mph
HIGH: Mid-to-upper 70s all week

2008 – Course Scoring Averages (Weather)
Round 1 – 71.188 (SKY: afternoon inclement weather suspended play for 150 minutes; darkness left 72 golfers unfinished … WIND: n/a … HIGH: n/a)
Round 2 – 74.558 (SKY: second round suspended for the day for inclement weather in late afternoon … WIND: n/a … HIGH: 79)
Round 3 – 73.861 (SKY: second round completed; third round suspended by darkness … WIND: n/a … HIGH: n/a)
Round 4 – 72.507 (SKY: sunny … WIND: n/a … HIGH: 67)

In Defense
Sean O'Hair. Crazy start to his year, and this after a swing change, where he's eliminated the left side of the golf course. He'll probably come crashing down to earth one week, but as the defending champion on a great roll, plug him in and forget about it.
Projection: Top 5

Go For It
Jim Furyk. Has just one start at this event, missing the cut in 2004, but he's coming off the solo 3rd at Doral and contends just about everywhere where par is a great score.
Projection: Top 10

Charley Hoffman. If you haven't hopped on his bandwagon yet, you probably don't follow golf, so consider this a beginner's tutorial. Hoffman is tied for fourth in GIR despite ranking 151st in driving accuracy. (He's 8th in GIR from lies off the fairway.) He's off to a monster start, with five top-25s and zero missed cuts in six starts. Completely ignore his MC-T27-MC history at Copperhead.
Projection: Top 5

Rod Pampling. Hasn't won since 2006 at Bay Hill, but like Furyk, tends to rise up the leader board on the more difficult tracks. He has three top-10s in five appearances, ranks 44th in GIR and just finished T-9 at Doral.
Projection: WIN

Bart Bryant. He's played his best golf in the first half the last couple of seasons, but has scuffled this year until last week in Puerto Rico, where he finished T-4 for his first top-30 of 2009. He's 170th in GIR but has cashed in each of his last six starts at the Transitions, including three top-20s in the last four. In weekly leagues where you're limited on starts, you could do a lot worse than burning Bryant at Copperhead.
Projection: Top 10

John Senden. Naturally, he's the obvious selection, no? With T-2s the last two years, Senden can either do one better or fulfill the mathematical likelihood of the alternative. The Aussie is 10th in GIR and elated his fantasy owners when he appeared in this field. A horse for this course, of course.
Projection: Top 10