OPINION

By Dave Curtis

updated 8:03 p.m. ET March 17, 2009

Three years ago, Chip Kelly coordinated a Division I-AA offense out of a closet-sized office in Durham, N.H. He was commonplace in college football, a good coach with a good scheme led by a good quarterback. To almost everyone, he was no big deal, just another guy.

Saturday, Oregon introduced Kelly as its head coach, effective for the March 30 start of spring practice in Eugene. The Ducks are an anomaly in college football, a program without a local recruiting base that attracts enough talent to contend for the Rose Bowl far more often than not.

"It's a pretty funny jump," said Sean McDonnell, Kelly's old boss at the University of New Hampshire.

It's a pretty funny game that allows such a jump. And it's evidence of a reality lost whenever these changes occur. For as much as so many people want Kelly to succeed — for his Xbox offense to his fearless recruiting to his blunt sense of humor — no one knows how the guy will do.

Choosing a coach is no different than choosing a mate or a job or, as it turns out, an investment fund. There are signs for sure — Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley talked about an intangible he felt after first meeting with Urban Meyer. (Here's some Kelly humor: Asked about his head coaching role models, Kelly joked to reporters in Oregon that if he tried to be the next Urban Meyer, he'd end up Oscar Mayer). There might even be a formula. But as much as an athletic director or search committee studies and investigates and interviews, there's no sure thing. The chart might say double down, but the next card might be a deuce.

Three things give Kelly a chance to be great, and he can take credit for two. Start with the offense, a spread scheme cultivated over a decade of campus visits to major college programs and through trial and error at UNH. The plan helped morph Dennis Dixon from mediocre to a Heisman hopeful in 2007; it brought the Ducks seven games with 40-plus points in 2008. Kelly might continue to call plays in 2009, though the only guarantee he'd make at a Saturday news conference was that little on offense would look different. "The only thing that will change this year to next year," he said, "is that I hope we score more points."

So give the guy a check mark for what he's done on Saturday afternoons. And keep the pen out for the recruiting category, too. Outgoing coach Mike Bellotti, who built Oregon football to unexpected heights, did so by chasing players who would never before consider the Ducks. But Kelly has pressed that further, going nationwide to chase quarterback Terrelle Pryor and running back Bryce Brown, the nation's No. 1 recruits each of the last two years.

And then there's the third key, the reason why Kelly spurned Syracuse and his other suitors to hang around for this job: Oregon is big-time. The Ducks have a near-permanent place in the top 20. They're entrenched as the Pac-10's maid of honor to USC. Having Nike down the street, and a CEO there who loves his yellow and green, helps, too. And with Bellotti down the hall (he takes over as athletic director July 1), Kelly has a buddy to help him navigate the challenges he's never had to handle before.

Bob Stoops handled those challenges — media and fundraising and discipline — at Oklahoma, which happened to be his first head coaching job. A decade deep, it's safe to say the Sooners' gamble has paid well. But not every first college head coaching job goes smoothly. Ask Notre Dame, which fanned on Gerry Faust and Bob Davie and is cruising toward 0-for-3 with Charlie Weis.

Will Kelly make this funny jump and land clean on the positive side of uncertainty? Probably. His success as a coordinator/recruiter and Oregon's stability make him a near-lock. Truth is, though, it's impossible to know for sure. Everything for now is an intangible feeling. And until the Ducks open Sept. 5 at Boise State, no one will know how he'll do in charge.

Also on NBCSports.com Out of Bounds: Katrina survivor pens hit Saints song Rosenthal: Colts will be team to beat next season NBA: ProBasketballTalk is here! Check out new blog NCAA BK: Who's in, who's out? Updated bracket projections Twitter: Follow us @nbc_sports

MORE FROM COLLEGE FOOTBALL

College football Section Front

Confident new Gator Rivals.com: Five recruiting sleepers Rivals.com: Top 25 signing classes Rivals.com: Top five impact freshmen Kentucky hires Tee Martin as WR coach FanHouse: FSU recruits, fans flocking to Fisher CFT: Bowden, Florida St. officially stripped of 12 wins   Slideshow: Catch up on all the coaching changes CFT: Tebow commercial was much ado about nothing CFT: Top recruit Henderson ‘back on the market’ College football Section Front   Add College football headlines to your news reader: