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10 teams who could win the NCAA tournament

Defending champ Kansas, all four 1 seeds and Duke among our picks

Image: Sherron Collins
Orlin Wagner / AP
Sherron Collins and Kansas are one of 10 teams who could win the 2009 NCAA tournament, writes Yoni Cohen.
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OPINION
By Yoni Cohen
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 2:59 p.m. ET March 16, 2009

This season, college basketball has been a merry-go-round.

In one six week stretch, five different teams were ranked as the nation’s best. During “Championship Week,” the No. 1 seeds in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC tournaments all lost, as did those in the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West.

There is plenty of reason to believe the chaos will continue.

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Two of the NCAA tournament’s No. 1 seeds are missing players who were expected to be key contributors during the postseason. Connecticut is without Jerome Dyson and North Carolina is without Marcus Ginyard. The third No. 1 seed, Louisville, lost to three teams that didn’t even make the field of 65. The fourth No. 1 seed, Pittsburgh, is only 4-4 away from home in the past month.

There is no lock and no heavy favorite to win this year’s title. But because you must decide on a champion to complete your bracket, here are the 10 teams on which the carousel is most likely to stop:

Louisville
If defense wins championships, the Cardinals will cut down the nets. Tall and long, Louisville plays terrific pressure defense and averages more than nine steals and six blocks a game. Earl Clark and Terrence Williams protect the interior and crash the defensive glass. Louisville’s guards, four of whom average about 20 minutes a game, keep opponents honest on the perimeter.

Pittsburgh
The Panthers are led by three of the country's most talented players. Sophomore forward DeJuan Blair is the nation’s leading offensive rebounder. Senior point guard Levance Fields averages 7.6 assists and only 2.0 turnovers a game, good for a power conference best 3.9-to-1 assists-to-turnover ratio. But it is senior forward Sam Young who leads the Panthers in scoring, at 18.7 points a contest. Tough and consistent, Pittsburgh makes few unforced errors, rarely has an off game, and won’t beat itself — unless Blair gets into foul trouble.

North Carolina
The Tar Heels play at two speeds, fast and faster, and score at will. In Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina starts both the 2008 and 2009 Atlantic Coast Conference Players of the Year. In Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, the Tar Heels have two experienced and selfless upperclassmen who move the ball well and shoot the ball better. In Roy Williams, North Carolina has a Hall of Fame coach. What’s not to like, beyond the Tar Heels’ occasional lack of focus?

Connecticut
Don’t read too much into the Huskies’ late-season losses. The more experience Connecticut gets with Kemba Walker in the starting lineup, the better the Huskies will be. With Hasheem Thabeet blocking and changing shots, Jeff Adrien keeping opponents off the offensive glass, and A.J. Price playing tight perimeter defense, Connecticut is awfully difficult to score against. Can coach Jim Calhoun win a national title without Jerome Dyson? Yes, provided Price and Walker make smart choices on the offensive end.

Memphis
The Tigers have not one but two chips on their shoulder, the first from last year’s championship loss and the second from this year’s No. 2 seed. Besides motive, Memphis has the means to win the title. Point guard Tyreke Evans is a playmaker who creates shots for himself and his teammates, Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart are skilled and efficient forwards, and underappreciated guard Antonio Anderson is a jack-of-all-trades. Skeptical of Memphis’ success because the Tigers play in Conference USA? You must not have seen Memphis defeat Tennessee in Knoxville and Gonzaga in Seattle.

Missouri
After winning the Big 12 tournament, the Tigers’ confidence is high — and for good reason. Coach Mike Anderson has worked miracles in Missouri. The Tigers move the ball well and shoot only high percentage shots. Fearless forwards DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons know how to draw contact and get to the line. The Tigers’ bench is deep and their press is second to none. Arkansas won a title playing “Forty Minutes of Hell.” Why can’t Missouri?

West Virginia
Looking for a dark horse? The Mountaineers could be your white knight. Coached by NCAA tournament regular Bob Huggins, West Virginia is one of the nation’s most efficient offensive and defensive clubs. Earlier this season, the Mountaineers fell just short against Connecticut and Louisville. But in February, West Virginia embarrassed Villanova 93-72 and in March, the Mountaineers soundly defeated Pittsburgh 74-60. Why is West Virginia hot? Because freshman Devin Ebanks is improving with every game he plays for Huggins.

Gonzaga
The ‘Zags have won 18 of their last 19 games are playing their best basketball at the right time. Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye are a force to be reckoned with inside the arc and Matt Bouldin is an accurate shot from behind the arc. Thanks to their big three, Gonzaga won 16 West Coast Conference games by an average of 21 points. But will the ‘Zags stumble in closer contests? Only time — and the on-again, off-again play of Micah Downs — will tell.

Kansas
The dream season continues. A year after the winning the national championship, the young Jayhawks are a surprising but legitimate threat to repeat for three reasons. First, Kansas has a steady and experienced hand, Sherron Collins, at the game’s most important position, point guard. Second, center Cole Aldrich has developed into a productive post presence. Third, the remaining Jayhawks know their roles and execute their assignments. There is no “I” in team — and there is no “I” in Kansas.

Duke
This may be the year America learns to really hate Duke again. After four consecutive early exits from the NCAA tournament, the Blue Devils are equipped for the long haul. Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Gerald Henderson can flat-out score. Singler can also rebound, Scheyer can also take care of the rock, and Henderson can also get to the charity stripe. Duke defense’s isn’t as strong as it was earlier in the year, but the Devils retain their uncanny ability to force opponents into taking bad shoots.

Yoni Cohen writes about college basketball on his blog, http://www.yocohoops.com , and can be reached at yocohoops@gmail.com .

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