Denis Poroy / AP

BYU's Jonathan Tavernari passes in front of the San Diego State defense. Tavernari and the Cougars could win the Mountain West tournament — along with nearly every other league team, writes Yoni Cohen.

But because 15 of New Mexico’s 21 wins this season took place at home — and because the Lobos’ best non-conference win came at home against a mediocre Mississippi squad — Alford’s club needs at least one win league tournament win, perhaps two, to feel secure. The second win would have to come against experienced and balanced Utah on Friday, assuming the Utes beat TCU on Thursday.

Utah is led by 7-foot-2 Aussie Luke Nevill on the inside and former New York City scoring title winner Lawrence Borha on the outside. An RPI of 11, wins over LSU and Gonzaga, and a postseason tournament title would likely catapult the Utes to as high as a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. But a loss to hapless Idaho State and a 4-5 record against the RPI Top 50 could also drop Utah to as low as a No. 9 seed. Having lost two of its last three games, Utah can ill afford to be upset by TCU in the quarterfinals — and would be well served to defeat New Mexico in the semifinals.

Should the Utes and the Lobos meet again, the game will make for must-see TV. Of the teams’ last seven contests, four went to overtime and two were decided by a single point.

“We’re both good rebounding teams and we’re both very well prepared teams and that makes for a great rivalry,” said Utah coach Jim Boylen.

This season, both the Utes and Lobos have also excelled at drawing fouls and scoring points on the free-throw line. The team that does it better on Friday should triumph. Another key to the game will be the play of New Mexico’s leading scorer, Tony Danridge. The Lobos won every recent game against elite competition in which the senior performed particularly well. Conversely, New Mexico lost every recent game against top teams in which Danridge had either an average or sub-par outing.

Who will ultimately win the Mountain West Conference Tournament? Only time will tell. When I asked four conference coaches which team (other than their own) they believed had the best chance at winning the postseason tournament, I received three different responses — and for good reason.

This season, all five of the conference’s best teams are 4-4 against each other. Thanks to their overall bodies of work, Utah and BYU might appear to have the edge. But New Mexico has the momentum and San Diego State has a deep bench. UNLV, which has the worst league record of the five contenders, has the advantage of playing at home. In Las Vegas, the Runnin’ Rebels won the conference's postseason tournament each of the past two years.

Stay tuned. The shots made and missed in Vegas will be heard around the college basketball world.

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